JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Toki

2:55

Is Felix Hernandez toast? His last two years have been pretty unkingly.

Paul Sporer

2:58

I don't know that last year was. I know the 3.53 ERA was higher than expectations, but he still fanned 8.5 per 9 (23% rate) and had a 1.18 WHIP, but there's no denying that this year was a struggle. His velocity is gone and there's like a 3-5 MPH gap between his fastball and changeup now which is awful. I think he might have to figure some new things out. Maybe shift his slider into more of a cutter and throw it up 80s, low 90s as essentially his fastball bc a straight four-seamer at the same velo isn't going to work. If his price doesn't drop a good bit this year, I won't be invested, but I refuse to fully quit a superstar like him

Michelle

2:59

Thoughts on Joe Ross and Aaron Nola next year?

Paul Sporer

3:02

Two really interesting arms. Nola's elbow is scary, but the talent is tremendous. Ross is ending his season on the mound, but a balky shoulder is scary, especially with his heavy slider usage. I lean toward Nola; both should be discounted w/their injury concerns

Connor

3:02

As a final keeper with Kershaw, Scherzer, Lester, Machado as locks, who would you keep: Addison Russell, Dozier, or AJ Pollock?

Paul Sporer

3:02

I'd still go Russell, but you can make a strong case for all three.

Toki

3:03

Is Ryon Healy a top 10 3b next year? And what kind of production do you expect?

Paul Sporer

3:08

Top 10 is too lofty, but I'm really interested in Healy. Eno's got me on board with him. I think we'll see mid-20s pop with a .275 AVG and decent R/RBI bc I think he'll be in the middle of the lineup

Nick

3:08

Whaaat up Paul! Looking forward to the next time you come to NYC. How are feeling about Price next year? That hard contact sure is worrisome...

Paul Sporer

3:11

Yooo! Hopefully I'll be back up next year. The weather is already too cold for me to consider coming in the next few months, lol. It was a rough season for Price for sure, but I think he rebounds in '17. I generally stay away from large contracts in year 1, especially SPs, but I think Price will adjust for year 2. His base skills were still fantastic. Keeping the ball in the park and perhaps a little good fortune on the BABIP will bring him back to his normal level of excellence

Dodge Ball

3:13

Chapman in round 4 or Diaz in round 7?

Paul Sporer

3:13

Both? :)

3:15

I might actually take the discount and go Diaz. Love Chapman, but Diaz was absolutely obscene

Tommy Lasordid

3:15

Keep five of Kershaw, Arenado, Correa, Betts, Harper, Odor. Drop Odor?

Paul Sporer

3:15

Ya, gotta drop Odor. Tough to release someone popping that many HRs at 2B, but he's the clear drop

Dodge Ball

3:16

Who is more undervalued heading into 2017: Miggy or Greinke?

Paul Sporer

3:16

Miggy because he should still be a first rounder and probably won't be in most leagues

3:17

I'm actually about to take him with my 2nd pick in a mock where I took Kershaw at 6. So pick 19.

Rob

3:21

So what is Gyorko now? Career year regression candidate? Juiced ball regression candidate? Adam Duvall? Brian Dozier?

Paul Sporer

3:23

Juiced ball benefactor, but I don't see any major skills changes that really have me targeting him next year. He's a worthy power source, but his best asset might be the triple eligibility at 2B/3B/SS

Dodge Ball

3:24

When Byun-ho Kim recovers from his injury, will he be given playing time in MIN? Is there a chance of him matching his 2016 projections (.250/.333.487, 25 HR) in 2017 or beyond?

Paul Sporer

3:24

ya I think they'll give him a better look next year. I can definitely see that projection coming through. I'd plan around more of a .235-.240 AVG and take anything else as bonus

Dumpster Fiers

3:25

Lackey was not in your top 40. Where would you put him?

Paul Sporer

3:32

he's 46th

(sorry, had a phone call)

3:34

It's not that i don't think he can continue to be successful if healthy, but the "if healthy" piece becomes more and more uncertain with each passing year. He's been a total workhorse, but once you get past 35 years old, there isn't that guaranteed soft decline, an injury can just decimate a guy

Toki

3:34

Follow up, is Felix a keeper in a 10 team keep 20 to you?

Paul Sporer

3:34

So a top-200 guy? Ya, I mean he was my 35th SP

3:34

It seems like the Rotographs chats should focus on Ottoneu more than they do. There's got to be reader interest. And, selfishly, I want answers to my Ottoneu questions!

Paul Sporer

3:35

I hear you. I'm playing Ottoneu this year so I have an idea what I'm talking about. Maybe what we should do is have one of the Ottoneu writers do a regular chat.

Minty

3:37

How fast is that mock? I'm enjoying it.

Paul Sporer

3:38

It's a slow mock. You can follow it here: https://t.co/9vvfjIeTlp

Michelle

3:38

Have you watched "Pitch"? If so, what are your thoughts?

Paul Sporer

3:38

I've only seen the first one, but I plan to watch the others, they're on my DVR. I found it enjoyable

Tommy Lasordid

3:39

I've been using one of five, point-league keeper positions on Stanton for the last three years, and am getting tired of the injuries and poor results. Do I cut bait or hold on another year? Considering Strasburg or Urias instead.

Paul Sporer

3:39

I don't know if going from Stanton to Stras is going to help quell those frustrations with an injury-riddled player

3:40

I love that Urias upside, but I can't justify him over Stanton or Stras. I think you still go with Stanton. I get the frustration, but you're getting mid-20s HRs even if he fails like this year and there's still elite upside

3:41

Though the percentage chance of that elite upside panning out is much lower these days

Toki

3:41

Is this peak Dozier or could there be more in him?

Paul Sporer

3:42

Has to be peak, I can't see how there'd be more. He absolutely raked in the last four months of the season, but I think he'll dip back toward low-30s homers unless his 18% HR/FB maintains

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