JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:04

Hello hello!! It's chat time and if you want to follow the Rule 5 Draft, you can do that here: https://www.mlb.com/video/live-rule-5-draft-90176?t=mlb-pipeline

1:05

You (actually Justin) intimated that Jackson Holliday has a real chance to break camp. How high would you take him in a DC and also a ME type team?

Paul Sporer

1:08

Those will vary a good bit bc by the time Mains come around, we'll have a better idea on Holiday and his price will probably be top 75. For DCs, he's going just inside the top 200 which isn't terrible and could pay off nicely.

Arson Judge

1:08

How will Jon Heyman botch Soto's name in the race to break the inevitable trade news?

Paul Sporer

1:08

Juan Soros going to NYY!

Richard

1:08

When will your updated SP rankings be published?

Paul Sporer

1:09

Promise they're coming soon. Switched from a one-liner commentary on this first run to a deeper commentary piece so it's gonna a looong one. I appreciate the patience as I continue to work through 'em

Bill

1:09

What kind of effect will Yankee Stadium have on Soto?

Paul Sporer

1:09

Almost certainly positive given that RF.

James

1:10

How do you value Royce Lewis with his past injury issues?

Paul Sporer

1:12

For some, they take him off their board. Not me, though. I acknowledge them, but I loooove the talent and I'm willing to take the plunge and hope he can spike some health. Top 40 is a lofty price so I won't be overloaded on him in my fall/winter drafts, but I've already got 1 share and I'm doing 8-10 drafts this offseason, I'll hope to maybe have 2-3 shares of him across Draft Champions and Gladiators. Health is a tough nut to crack and while previous injury is the best indicator of future injury, it doesn't guarantee he will keep getting hurt. Note: I'm also one of the goofs who drafted Buxton a bunch so maybe I just have a weakness for insanely talented Twins w/bad health profiles

Gus

1:12

Who's the top pick in a rookie dynasty league? Yamamoto? Crews? Salas?

Paul Sporer

1:13

Yamamoto. Langford, Crews, Skenes next for me. Love Salas and super excited about him, but he's more for real life than fantasy right now

Richard

1:13

I would be interested in some sort of S&B NFBC league - just wanted to give feedback based upon pod conversation. I'm hoping Fangraphs members can be included in one perhaps.

Paul Sporer

1:14

Yes, definitely! Please also let Justin know so we have a way to reach you as he sets 'em up!

Tyler

1:14

Who you got for 2024, Yamamoto or Ragans?

Paul Sporer

1:14

I'm gonna cop out and say I need to know where Yamamoto is going first, but they will be close regardless

1:14

Spence and Sauer taken with the first 2 picks of the Rule 5 darft...that Yankee pitching depth is gonna go quick when the Soros deal happens

Paul Sporer

1:15

Right? As an avid OOTP player, the thought of losing 2 Ps in Rule 5 and then trading probably multiples to SD for Soto a day after multiples to BOS for 'dugo would have me SUPER nervous

KC Pain

1:16

I know everyone is looking at minor stuff like Ohtani and Soto....but the big deal is KC moving Dylan Coleman. Means we gotta be snagging someone in draft right?!

Paul Sporer

1:16

Can't believe it's not getting more coverage!!!!

Dodgers Blue

1:16

Who says no? Brendan Donovan for Oswald Peraza. Peraza would be a defensive upgrade over Gorman at 2nd and allow Cards to put Gorma in DH spot. Donovan gives Yanks another lefty bat, high on base guy.....

Paul Sporer

1:16

That's an interesting challenge trade. I could actually see both teams agreeing if they had talks about it

Insert Witty Name Here

1:22

How did the results from the rule changes from last year change your strategy for 2024?

Paul Sporer

1:23

We now have a firmer idea of what rules did for SBs so we can adjust accordingly. Some will now wait on SBs under the idea that more are available, buuutttt you need more to compete now so I'm going the other way and shoring up some SBs earlier and trying to avoid having too many guys who are gonna give zero

Big George

1:29

$300 mil for Yamamoto? Some teams (Yankees?) may shy away at that price to preserve $500+ million for Soto free agency in 2024?

Paul Sporer

1:29

Yeah Soto and Ohtani pending price tags could keep some teams away from Yamamoto

Robin Bunt

1:29

Chourio first MLB at bat o/u June 1, 2024? Brewers paying major league salary, might as well push him. Right?

Paul Sporer

1:31

I mean I don't think they push him if he's not ready, but he'll be up as soon as they deem him ready which I think will beat that June 1st deadline, so gimme the under. Could feasibly break camp, too, if he pops off in Spring

Too Many Mooks

1:31

Now that Kimbrel is the Orioles closer, I can trade him for Trout, right?

Paul Sporer

1:31

100%! lol

Kate

1:31

Jazz confirmed staying in the outfield. Better or worse chance he gets hurt there vs. infield?

Paul Sporer

1:32

I wanna ask Jeff Zimmerman that bc he probably has data on it. I think CF v. 2B/SS is probably similar, though maybe a little higher in CF bc of the wall?

1:32

Here are all the Rule 5 picks to make your life easier Paul!
Oakland A's: RHP Mitch Spence (Yankees)
Royals: RHP Matt Sauer (Yankees)
Rockies: RHP Anthony Molina (Rays).
White Sox: LHP Shane Drohan (Red Sox)
Nationals: SS Nasim Nunez (Marlins)
Cardinals: RHP Ryan Fernandes (Red Sox)
Mets: RHP Justin Slaten (Rangers)
Guardians: 3B Deviyson De Los Santos (D'backs)
Padres: RHP Stephen Kolek (Mariners)
Rangers: RHP Carson Coleman (Yankees)

Paul Sporer

1:33

TYVM! Spence, Nunez, and De Los Santos have become gods in various OOTP sims I've done since last year. That doesn't really mean anything, but their success in that game is why I recognize them and have some knowledge of them (I usually end up deep-diving players like that to see what their real life prospects are when they explode in my sims)

Babyfarts

1:34

in a dynasty points league would you trade Nico/Woodruff for Trout/Kirk? Woodruff being out the entire year and in a win now mode

Paul Sporer

1:35

I'm OK with that in a win-now situation. Trout obviously carries his own risks, but the upside is still fantastic

Dodgers Blue

1:38

Please rank potential Dodger arms: Pepiot, Stone, Sheehan, Grove. What role does each end up filling this year - and are all four potential trade bait for some bigger name?

Paul Sporer

1:46

I can do the rank, but their role is tough to say until the FA & trade dust settles (though obviously Ohtani does not play a role in that this year).

Pep (A cut above the others for me. I believe in the command improvements we saw this yr, shouts to my boy Gregg Martin for calling that early in the year)
Stone (Can't quit him off 31 ugly IP, still love a prospect w/a premium change and his 14% SwStr says the 15% K rate will rise)
Grove (Also close to Stone, these last 3 are damn near interchangeable based on who gets an SP role & who doesn't. Strong 18% K-BB and the best control of the 4 over the long haul)
Sheehan (Close to Grove & Stone for sure, needs a control improvement like Pepiot saw if we're going to see him take a major step)

Richard

1:47

LHB park factor for SD: 95
LHB park factor for NYY: 96

I think we'll see more HRs but a lot fewer hits (94 SD vs 88 NYY). Probably will be close to a wash.

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