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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

1:47

More HRs in exchange for possibly some hits is still a big win

1:48

The HR park factor goes from 84 to 123 moving from SD to NYY

tmh1968

1:49

Does M. King get a fantasy boost if he goes to SD? Top 20-25 NL SP?

Paul Sporer

1:49

Probably a little boost, yeah. Definitely not getting him to Top 20-25 in the NL juuust yet. I like him and believe in the SP transition, but I'll be a bit lower on my ranking w/him

Pedro

1:50

Its counterintuitive, but baseball Savant indicates that Soto has hit 169 HRs in his career and that number would drop to 147 had he played in Yankee Stadium

Paul Sporer

1:52

Yeah but that's only based on the batted ball distribution he's had to date. I think you can make a case that he goes to the pull field more in NYY and sees the HR uptick. I just can't see how he doesn't get better in NY v. SD. We saw the drop off from WAS to SD and now it should tick back up (assuming everything goes through as we expect given the latest rumoring)

Kate

1:52

How on earth does Gavin Stone run a 15% K rate with a 14% swinging strike rate? I know it was a small sample, but what the heck? Does this have something to do with his primary whiff pitch being a change?

Paul Sporer

1:52

It's almost impressive, right? lol

Maybe early count whiffs and not able to put guys away?

BoobieMiles

1:52

Does WYatt Langford break camp with Texas...odds of this happening, 0-100% ?

Paul Sporer

1:53

I'd say damn near 100% if they can work a deal w/him a la the Chourio deal, otherwise, I think he at least gets 2-3 wks in AAA bc they just don't HAVE to rush him

Natitude Adjuster

1:53

I saw some hot takes at the end of the season about how the Nats "obviously" screwed up picking Crews, not Skenes. Feels like bad analysis on SSS. Just to clarify: You still like Crews more?

Paul Sporer

1:54

I love Skenes, but that's a brutal take if it's based on how they both performed post-draft. I still prefer Crews bc when it's damn-near even, I'm going to lean hitter over pitcher. Huge fan of both, but gimme Crews in a 1v1

BRB --- need to let the pups out & refill my water real quick

John

1:59

Hi Paul, 12 team roto league pick one to keep: L. Webb 3rd round, O. Cruz 11th(1st round 2025), Casas late round, J Walker late round? Thanks

Paul Sporer

2:03

I’d go Casas or Walker. Webb is good but that’s not a bargain in the 3rd and I’m not paying the premium for Cruz (though 11th isn’t egregious as he is a top 100 pick in the Fall drafts at the NFBC). I’m just nervous about the plate skills. I don’t think it’s off base to compare him with Elly de la Cruz and we saw how the swing & miss got Elly at times during his rookie year.

Tyler

2:04

Yusei worth the gamble this year?

Paul Sporer

2:15

He's going outside the Top 250 so I don't mind taking the shot if you're interested. I love that gave up just 5 HR in his last 14 starts, but I'm not sure if it's a bankable change just yet. That run came with an 8% HR/FB rate and while he did improve his groundball rate during that time, too, I'm reluctant to dive in headfirst on Kikuchi as a new guy. Again, the draft price makes it a worthy gamble if you do believe, just be ready to jump ship if the HRs return in a big way

kcc26

2:15

Skenes throws ____ MLB innings in 2024

Paul Sporer

2:16

80, I think he'll be a fun summer call-up

Preview?

2:16

Give me a preview on whereabouts you have Framber in your upcoming rankings? Just traded for him and I need validation!

Paul Sporer

2:22

Around the Top 15. I love him and he's as close to bankable as we've got on the mound. Obviously anyone can get hurt at a moment's notice when pitching, but he looks like one of this generation's workhorses. I'm looking for another 30-start/190-inning season with strong ratios and strong W opportunity in Houston.

PickEm

2:23

Who ya got over the next 3 years - Ragans or Bobby Miller - in a non-W league?

Paul Sporer

2:23

Bobby Miller. I've been fully on board the Ragans train and still am, but Miller has top of the scale ace upside to me.

PGB

2:23

Re Crews/Skenes, Nats didn't have a chance to get Skenes. He went 1.1. Maybe people are saying they screwed up by not taking Langford, which I could see.

Paul Sporer

2:25

Oh yeah, it'd be Crews v. Lang... but I don't really think they screwed up on it. Any reaction like is entirely based on the summer sample of Langford surging up the minors. Judging much of anything off that is suspect at best

Natitude Adjuster

2:25

Yes! Sorry--I meant the Nats screwed up by not taking Langford, presumably based on post-draft.

Paul Sporer

2:27

LOL, I wasn't even processing that Skenes obv went 1.1, was just comparing them. But yeah with Langford, it was a sick run but it doesn't fundamentally change who he is or who he can be.

PGB

2:27

Re: Chourio being up Opening Day, the Brewers have a strong incentive to try to get him ROY for the extra draft pick, so I think they'll do it unless he looks lost in spring training

Paul Sporer

2:28

Great callout, I need to commit those rules to memory because they can definitely influence decisions like this, especially w/the deal in hand. I'm eager to see what the contract does to Chourio's draft price. Justin and I are going to let some drafts get done before looking, but we'll check it out in a couple weeks

KC Pain

2:28

Is there a team you see in 3 years being like the Orioles and bursting w talent?

Paul Sporer

2:29

Cincy is the easy NL comp

Dirty Sanchez

2:29

What's your optimism level for Cris Sanchez? The 20% K-BB% and >55% GB% are really enticing.

Paul Sporer

2:34

I'm a huge fan! He was one of my big 2nd half guys to get and I loved what I saw. 27 years old, 3 pitch guy with great control, plenty of swing & miss, and a great changeup. I could see a breakout for sure!

KC Pain

2:34

I know too early....but man the way the Tigers finished....wouldnt Langford be a better timeline fit than Clark?

Paul Sporer

2:37

Sure, but I'm not too worried about it. You can't get too short-sighted. I hope the Tigers are one of the two teams Eduardo Rodriguez is considering to go w/the rest of that pitching. OF isn't the biggest need, they need to start developing some INF talent.

Guest

2:37

Juan Yepez to the Nats on a minor league deal. Anywhere Dom Smith is your only blockade is a good spot, right?

Paul Sporer

2:38

Definitely and I say that as a Dom Smith fan. But I'm a realistic Dom Smith fan. They can at least platoon and then if either really pops off, they might garner more and more PT

Jamie

2:38

Which Jackson is a better keeper?

Paul Sporer

2:51

Sorry y'all, got a phone call I had to take

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