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Big in Japan

1:53

Do you think MLB expansion will increase the chances of success for specialists like knuckleballers?

Paul Sporer

1:53

Perhaps bc pitching gets diluted when expansion happens. Question is, who is really on the way as a knuckler? Feels like a dying art right now, unfortunately!

Jim

1:54

No write up on Gavin Williams so I’m wondering what’s holding him out of the tier with Miller/Woo… Is it the command, injuries or something else? I feel like his upside is insane

Paul Sporer

1:57

A lot of Next Wavers have Uncut Gem potential so I can see what you're saying there. Basically that cut off between those 2 tiers was my general confidence in them. I looove Cleveland's pitching development so I'm certainly not out on Gavin Williams, but his control was a big factor that dropped him into the Next Wave tier instead of joining the Uncut Gems. His ADP is actually higher than the 2 young Mariners which hurts him bc I'd rather save the 2 rds of value and go the Seattle route. That said, Gav will get a write up in a future update (not sure it'll be the one later this week or the one after, but it's coming)

Tanner R

1:57

Buy, Sell, or Hold on Sonny Gray in dynasty roto leagues

Paul Sporer

1:58

While I do think he will succeed in StL, I'm inclined to sell if the market is hot. At least test it out if you're open to moving an arm. Not a must sell or anything, though... so maybe Shop as opposed to outright Sell if I can split hairs

quadrangular

1:58

How are you regarding Langford in 2024? ZiPs is pretty aggressive with the playing time, whereas Steamer is more conservative. Where do you fall?

Paul Sporer

2:00

He's a stud in the making, but I think the excitement is pumping a little too high right now. I just don't see him and Dylan Crews THAT fair apart, but their respective post-draft runs have MASSIVELY separated them in the market. Frankly, I'd rather just take a gamble on Crews for what is a relative FREE ADP at 528. Langford will probably be up sooner if both start in the minors, but I'd be surprised if Washington doesn't have Crews up by around Memorial Day unless he just falls on his face at Triple-A

Paul (not you)

2:00

I've seen the SP ranks, but curious who among the crowd of recently-good-but-now-sorta-concerning guys (ie. the Bieber, Giolito, Flaherty, Buehler types) do you think is most likely to have a return-to-form year? Or maybe a better way to phrase it is, who in that sort of profile is most primed to outperform expectations?

Paul Sporer

2:06

I hope the market overreacts to the recent Buehler news that he likely won't be ready to start the season as I was kinda expecting that anyway so I'll gladly take a discount on his 110 ADP. He's kinda on his own at that ADP relative to this group but we'll have to see what he comes down to now that the news is out.

With the other 3, I lean toward Giolito a bit. I like the post-200 ADP and I'm willing to give him a pass for his 2nd half given that he was traded twice in a month (out west and then back again!) while also going through a divorce. I don't know if the divorce played a role, but players are human, I wouldn't hold it against him if it did espec. WHILE also being traded 2x. I don't think he will be at 2.0 HR9 again and like the move for Boston. I think many are forgetting or not realizing that White Sox Giolito was just fine: 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.10 SIERA, 26% K rate in 121 IP.

Selfishly, I hope Flaherty regains his form for my Tigers and he's priced to buy with a near-400 ADP.

2:06

What is the best method to find a league to join? I'd love to find a fully dynasty league starting from scratch rather than taking on an abandoned existing team.

Paul Sporer

2:08

Podhorzer always runs a popular classified post here on the site. I'll ping him to see if he'll put that up soon. Pretty good chance that if you're looking for a league of fellow baseball diehards, then meeting them here on FG would be the way to go. Outside of that, maybe perusing Twitter? I mean, it's a bigger shithole than ever these days so maybe not, but that's my 2nd-best guess rn. For now, I'd wait for the Podhorzer post or maybe get into a baseball Discord server like Rob DiPietro's Pull Hitter one or something similar to find a league of diehards

MrMet

2:08

If you could draft and keep one of the top young pitchers for the next five years, who would it be?

Paul Sporer

2:08

Bobby Miller

Keith

2:08

No question. Thanks for the write ups and chat. Really enjoy reading them.

Paul Sporer

2:09

Thanks so much for the kind words! Plenty more SP write ups coming as we ramp up toward the season getting going!

Guest

2:09

Hi Paul, Who The Eff is playing with Tatis in SD's OF?

Paul Sporer

2:09

Kurt Bevacqua and Nate Colbert!

2:10

Not even sure Kurt played much OF and I know Colbert was primarily 1B, but those were first two old school Padres I could think of lol

2:13

It's a great Q, though, bc right now we've got Cal Mitchell and Jose Azocar penciled in which is.... dicey, to say the least. I know money is jacked up there w/the crazy contracts they've signed & the TV deal falling through, but they might need to hit the bargain bin and scoop the likes of Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, and Whit Merrifield types. I can't imagine they can get Belli given the aforementioned $ issues, but he'd be a really good fit. As much as I truly love Bogaerts as a player, I still don't understand wtf they were thinking w/that deal. It's not even so much the terms of the deal (although they are intense) but just that they had so many huge contracts already and now it just looks so much worse now that they can't scratch 2 nickels together

Schilling & Pence

2:13

How concerned are you about Seager's surgery for his FY stats?

Paul Sporer

2:14

Very little right now. He always brings some injury risk that keeps me from projecting 600+ PA in the first place so I'm still drafting him. This could yield a little discount, too. I'll take even a 5-7 pick drop off his 20 ADP

Hoo

2:14

How about Merrill taking a shot at that SD outfield?

Paul Sporer

2:16

That's a great call out. I think there have been talks of him moving off SS and given their OF need, maybe that accelerates the move for Jackson Merrill and he becomes an early summer answer for them in OF

Mr Baseball

2:16

If you turn the Athletics off and back on again, will they win 100 games?

Paul Sporer

2:16

looool, gotta blow in the cartridge, too

Ian

2:16

Who would you rather have for this year? Eury Perez, Bradish or Bobby Miller?

Paul Sporer

2:17

B Milly. Love the other 2 as well, but it's a clear Miller pick for me given my rankings: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2024-fantasy-rankings/

Jim

2:23

Out of curiosity, which is/are your go-to projection system(s) for pre-season prep?

Paul Sporer

2:23

I love looking at all the ones we have on the player pages. I tend to lean on The BAT most of all if I had to choose one

2:25

maybe I missed it but have you spoken about NFBC scandal? shady AF!

Paul Sporer

2:26

Yes we discussed it at the beginning of this episode: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-1250-ca...

Guest

2:26

Is Wyatt Langford this year's Corbin Carroll (rookie who you can get for cheap in redraft and might be your most valuable player)?

Paul Sporer

2:28

I'd be careful w/that comparison as there are some key differences. Carroll's speed was so game changing that it really helped his floor and Langford doesn't bring anything like that. Carroll was also a lock to break camp w/the team and play the full year whereas we don't know that Langford will (not that we expect him to spend a ton of time in Triple-A). Lang is cheaper than Carroll at this time last yr, but even w/the relative discount, I was much more confident in what Carroll brings than I am of Langford which again is to say more of Carroll than it is any diss on Langford

boobie miles

2:28

Will M. Vargas or O. Peraza be traded by opening day? Both look hopelessly blocked

Paul Sporer

2:29

Probably not. Both the Dodgers and the Yankees will likely see the value in having such a strong player among their reserves given the 162 slog will cut down some players and require bench and minor league guys to step up

2:30

Big fan of both, though, and will take them in deep leagues

Insert Witty Name Here

2:30

Any suggestions on how to convince my league mates to swap to an auction draft? It’s a more entertaining format but everyone hates the length.

Paul Sporer

2:31

I don't have a great counter for the length, so I'd just try to focus on the fun of auctioning and how you have more control to get whoever you want (within budget, of course). I love drafts but auctions are SO much fun

Ted

2:34

Re: auction length draft, I'm in one league that is auction for starting roster spots then switches to snake draft rest of the way. Still takes long AF, but it's shorter!

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