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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:05

Helllloooooo!!!!

Elvis the Pelvis

1:05

Should Matt Waldron be a consideration moving forward in a QS points league?

Paul Sporer

1:05

As a standard streamer, sure, nothing more

Alekkkkkkkkkkkk

1:05

What to make of the Manoah rehab start?

Paul Sporer

1:06

It was cool and I'm rooting for him, but he's firmly in the "need 3-4 starts" to really start paying attention

Günter

1:06

Is this a lost season for O'Neil Cruz? Or maybe he just isn't cut out for big leagues?

Paul Sporer

1:12

Lost season definitely too early to say any of that. This is downside of this profile, though. Elly is showing how great it can be (and I'm not saying they are 1:1 dead even, but their general profiles are close) and Cruz is showing why I'm so nervous to take such a profile in the 2nd round. Elly has also spiked his BB% very nicely this year which is way different than expectations. But anyway, re: Cruz, I'm not quitting him. He's a good 5-7 gms from getting his #s back on track

Joe Musgrove

1:13

My peripherals look the same as years past, so why is my FIP and performance so insanely bad?

Paul Sporer

1:15

Hits and homers. He's close. Definitely off right now, but close enough that I'm still holding in all formats. Nick & I discussed him in some detail during our Fireside Chat this week-- https://pitcherlist.com/fsc-6-sp-analysis-shift-one-month-in/

Owen

1:15

Thanks for the chat! Any idea when you will update your SP rankings?

Paul Sporer

1:15

Next week!

Bryan

1:15

Is Jared Jones an ace? Are you expecting any regression here?

Paul Sporer

1:16

Not a true ace yet. Need multiple seasons to earn that tag for me. But he's an all-formats must-start right now and that's all that really matters in the here & now. We can adjust if Pittsburgh starts managing innings or anything like that, but he's a monster right now and absolutely must-watch TV!

Gleyber Pains

1:16

Dude is killing me... 0 HR through April... I don't want to drop, since Julien/Stott is the only reasonable option, but man..

Paul Sporer

1:20

Yeah the 0-fer with HRs is tough to stomach for a whole month. Can you cut someone lesser on your roster to scoop Julien and maybe bench Gleybs for a bit? I'm definitely looking to hold Gleyber a bit longer, but clock is ticking in 10-teamers.

Jackson Chourio

1:20

Is 2023 Anthony Volpe a fair comp? I'll have a horrible BA and strike out rate the rest of the way but go 20/20? Convince my owner not to send me to the wire for a pitcher

Paul Sporer

1:23

Yes that's a fantastic frame of reference for Chourio's start. And he's even pacing better closer to 25 HR/30 SB which would be enough to eat the crap AVG (that may improve as the season goes on)

Warren

1:23

reeling from this Trout news (though injury risk was obv priced in)…shopping for another bat, is Joe Ryan for Arraez an overpay?

Paul Sporer

1:26

Yeah I'd want a more impactful bat unless you really only need AVG. I'm also super bummed about the Trout news. As you said, we knew the risk but that doesn't make it any less of a bummer or the people who are so eager to point out his risk any less annoying, lol

We all KNOW that's why we got him in the 4th-5th rd (15 tm leagues), but we can still be bummed the f out about losing a big piece off our teams. Hell, even when I wasn't rostering Trout in the recent past years, I was still always sad when he got hurt. Watching Trout rules!

1:26

Looking at Pablo Lopez...most metrics look solid (K/9, K%, BB%, xERA, WHIP, etc.)...but that 4.83 ERA is not working. The LOB% stands out, is that just bad luck or is there something more I am not seeing?

Paul Sporer

1:30

The 1.7 HR is probably a bigger culprit. HRs are the quickest way to sour an ERA. That also dings the LOB rate. I don't think it's all just bad luck, but Lopez is very good and he's still a full-on rotation lock in all formats. If this HR issue is still there into June, we can assess further

Sell High, Buy Lo(dolo)

1:30

Hey Paul! Thanks as always for the chat. Curious your thoughts on Nick Lodolo moving forward. He’s looked great so far. If I need OF help, is trading for someone like Brian Reynolds or Castellanos a fair return or should I aim higher?

Paul Sporer

1:32

I feel comfortable with Bryan Reynolds for Lodolo. Casty shouldddd be a standard buy low but I have some nerves w/him. Of course, it's an actual buy-low where a rebound isn't obvious meaning you will get a legit discount. I think you should be able to get him for less than Lodolo so I'd focus on the Reynolds area of bats instead

Mike

1:32

What do you make of Hunter Greene so far? Should we just expect him to be incredibly inconsistent like this through the year? Would you only start him based on matchup?

Paul Sporer

1:34

Yes on expecting inconsistency which means no on starting him based on matchup. When he's on, he can cook ANYBODY, but when he's off, the Marlins or White Sox or Tigers can rip 3 HRs off him meaning you just have to start him and take the good w/the bad otherwise you really risk starting the duds and benching the gems bc he doesn't have an easy start/sit split to follow. Wrote more on him a while back: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-april-16th-2024/

Guest

1:34

aaah here it comes for Suwinski, hitting 8th vs the righty. Calling now that he’s not gonna make it to Mother's Day. Sigh. I have just about the best league settings for him, but alas… cut now, hunt down the hitting coach who turned him into Victor Robles later

Paul Sporer

1:42

Bummer to see him dropped to 8 v a righty, but I can't get away from him just yet. I like the drop in K% and really thought that was something he could do coming into the season. It hasn't netted results yet, but a .200 BABIP and 7% HR/FB are really holding him back. There is a 7% drop in HardHit rate and his Barrel is more than cut in half at 7% so he's contributing to those lagging BABIP and HR/FB totals, but I still have hope of a turnaround

Ryan

1:42

Is Bryce Miller possibly the best arm in Mariners rotation?

Paul Sporer

1:43

No, I can't get there this quickly. He might be pitching the best ball right now but I still make a distinction between that and being the best arm in a rotation. He's an excellent #4 who could be a #2/3 on MANY teams but I'm still taking Castillo/Kirby/Gilbert over him with ease... which pro those guys, not negative on Miller

Mookie Monster

1:44

So is Patrick Bailey a good fantasy catcher now?

Paul Sporer

1:46

Running hot and is even viable in some 1-C formats right now. He probably won't hold this level all year, but he can definitely be better than 2023 from here on. Maybe a low-.700s OPS projection w/a .250ish AVG and some pop

Kjerstad

1:46

Why'd they call me up?

Paul Sporer

1:48

Bc he's a great player. I understand it's annoying that he's not playing and you can make the case that he's better off getting every day burn in AAA that sporadic burn in MLB, but they decided they could afford to have the great bench bat for now. There's simply no room at the inn right now, but once there is, I'm all in on Kjerstad.

Ryan

1:48

Is it time to panic on Corbin Carroll? I truly believed he was a top 5 player going into the year

Paul Sporer

1:51

There is reason for some concern w/the power outage, the problem is that it's simply not actionable. I really don't think you can sit him anywhere and obviously it'd be a terrible decision to cut him. Still on a 45 SB pace so you gotta get those SBs at least. It's rough but I think we have to eat it right now

Struggling SP Vets

1:52

I appreciated your discussion with Justin on Bassitt and Musgrove. You sounded open to cutting, but then sounded much more cautious about that with Nick Pollack. If you had to cut one of the two today, which would it be? Would you base it on how they look today and if either of them turns a corner?

Paul Sporer

1:53

Yeah having the convos a day a part was instructive for me bc I really reconsidered how open I was to cutting. I actually plan to mention it on tomorrow's show, too, since not everyone who listens to Sleeper also listen to the Fireside. I can get behind benching either for a start or two if you really want to, but I think both are doing enough to believe they can work through these early struggles and thus I'd be reluctant to cut

Wenceel Perez

1:53

Flash in the pan guy, or is there legit upside, even possibly for shallow leagues?

Guest

1:53

Weeeeeeencel or Palacios?

Guest

1:53

Do you think Wenceel is for reel?

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