JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Return to

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:11

Thanks for coming out, sorry I'm late! My gf is having computer issues and I lost track of time when we were putting it back together (for the third time... it's not going well w/the fixes unfortunately)

MochiBetts

1:14

at what point do we start to become concerned about the ball from a hitting POV this year and how do we integrate it into how we value the middle tier pitchers having better years?

Paul Sporer

1:15

It's already part of the equation for me and definitely hurts those mid-tier power guys who's wall scrappers are now just F7s, F8s, and F9s in the scorebook. I wouldn't overreact to it, but I'd lower my expectations of those guys in the 12-20ish HR range

Idiotic Failson

1:15

Are you starting Rodon against Minny tonight? They're just sneaky good enough to make me nervous. I don't NEED the innings.

Paul Sporer

1:16

I'm starting him mostly everywhere https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-june-5th-2024/ but if you really don't need the innings and fear a bomb, I don't object to a sit.

The recos are always general and then your specific details can change the calculus

Interested Fantasy Owner

1:16

What do you think the odds are of Drew Thorpe making his MLB debut this season? I've been stashing but think it might be time to cut my losses.

Paul Sporer

1:18

I don't see the need to hold... could see him post-Deadline when they move Fedde, Crochet, and.... and... Bobby Thigpen and Jason Bere

Idiotic Failson

1:18

Why is Arozarena so bad?

Paul Sporer

1:24

The .199 BABIP is the problem, but that doesn't really answer the why. He's simply not striking the ball as hard and honestly, he's probably the kind of guy we were discussing earlier w/the first question about the squishy ball. He's a low-20s HR guy and now all of a sudden, his HardHit rate is down 9 pts, Barrel rate down 5 pts with far fewer line drives. He still has 8 HRs, but that's bc he's selling out for the HRs to compensate w/a rise in FB rates and 4 degrees higher Launch Angle. The really cost is 1Bs/2Bs right now as he's pacing for just 70 this year after 114 last year.

1:25

The 8 HR/7 SB fantasy juice has been enough to keep me on the hook w/him, but I am a bit nervous that the AVG just might not rebound strongly

weekly Corbin Carroll sob session

1:25

"but I'd lower my expectations of those guys in the 12-20ish HR range" YOU'RE NOT HELPING, PAUL!

Paul Sporer

1:25

lololol I'm sooorrryyyy

weekly Corbin Carroll sob session

1:25

Steamer full season update: .231/.314/.375
Jamey Carroll career: .272/.349/.338

Schneider, Davis

1:26

How often do 3 win/150 wRC+ players through half a season’s worth of games turn out to actually not be that good? I mean besides Kevin Maas (well he was only worth 1-2 wins, but this is a fantasy chat)

Paul Sporer

1:32

ugh I'm trying to run a Stathead to query to see who else has done this but I can't find the games range part

I know it's in there somewhere!!!

1:34

I'll check back in on this... sorry, lol

1:34

Obviously I can't cut, but Austin Riley has been awful. See anything to give me hope here? Also, Acuna was my first pick, so It's been a rough year from my top two picks. Gunnar and Sal Perez keeping me in a close second place for now.

Paul Sporer

1:35

We discuss Riley on the pod today. The long and short of it is that we're unmoved and we're riding out the storm. It's frustrating, but ya gotta ride it out and just keep him in the lineup. Signs are positive that he will pull out of this

Rock & Hard Place

1:35

Hi Paul, roll with Ashby today or Manaea in London this weekend? Both are vs PHI.

Paul Sporer

1:35

#NeverLondon

1:36

Hell, I'm down to sit Ranger out there

HathShat

1:36

Happy Cade Povich SZN! You think they'll keep a spot for him ongoing?

Paul Sporer

1:37

Oh if he pops off, they'll keep him up! Eager to see what he can. He's worth going for in all formats just given the upside while being on a great team

Salty

1:37

Winker has more CS than Semien has SBs - is Semien more hurt than just "one maintenance day" after breaking his iron man streak? And is he a sell high if his lower half is too banged up to run and may hurt his power, too?

Paul Sporer

1:41

So much of stealing is team context. Juxtaposing Semien with Winker is a great example of that. The Nats lead baseball with 95 SBs and have had a lot of pop-ups base stealers. Meanwhile, Texas is 2nd to last at 24 so I think Semien just has more of a yellow, perhaps even reddish light on the bases.

Martin Sekulski

1:42

Pick one long term: Tork or Colt Keith

Paul Sporer

1:42

I'll lean Keith

Marty

1:42

You starting Cade Povich tomorrow @ TOR?

Paul Sporer

1:42

I'm open to it. Not a muuust start.

Totally Not Cade Povich

1:42

When do I get a call? Do I need another injury or some garbage Suarez starts? Should I Tonya Harding Chayce?

Paul Sporer

1:42

This was before they saw the news lolol

1:44

OK the Stathead thing finished

So in response this:

Schneider, Davis
1:26 How often do 3 win/150 wRC+ players through half a season’s worth of games turn out to actually not be that good? I mean besides Kevin Maas (well he was only worth 1-2 wins, but this is a fantasy chat)

1:47

I just looked at some recent players to put up a big run similar to Schneider's in their first 300 PA and while there are a ton of studs (Yordan, Tatis, Alonso, Soto, etc...), but there are flameouts, so yes it can happen:

Aledmys Diaz 2016
Tyler Naquin also 2016
Ryan Schimpf ALSOOO 2016
Keston Hiura 2019
Frank Schwindel 2021

1:49

It wasn't a rigorous study by any stretch and one thing that jumps out immediately is that Schneider has better plate skills than virtually everyone here, but I'm just saying he hasn't delivered a large enough sample to yet say he's definitely good. That said, I'm along for the ride so we'll see how it plays out!

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

1:49

Should I drop Schneider, Vierling or Sosa for B.Lowe in my 12T H2H with OPS?

Paul Sporer

1:49

Ehh... I'm not so sure I would

Chilly

1:51

Anywhere on the site to find the abs/pas where hard hit, bb%, la, etc stabilizes?

Load More Messages

Connecting…