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Guest

1:33

is sending Pete Alonso, Jared Jones, Volpe, and Joey Ortiz an overpay for EDLC and Bichette in an 8 team dynasty?

Paul Sporer

1:34

no, that seems OK to me in a shallow league

Guest

1:34

when you are with multiple players that have given nothing (albies, arenado, robert, castellanos) do you have pretty much no option but to trot them out and hope they turn it around? things have to get better right?!

Paul Sporer

1:38

Yes, you have to stay the course w/these top half of the draft veterans who have YEARS of quality on their ledger. We forget every year just how loooong the season is! Not all of them will turn it around, but a good number will and in a lot of instances, you're still better off taking the rest of one of these guys v. a waiver pickup (league size dependent, of course)

Guest

1:38

ha-seong kim and freddy peralta for fernando tatis jr in a 10 team full keeper?

Paul Sporer

1:38

Good by me

Frozen Rope

1:38

How long are we going to keep underestimating Alberto Suarez?

Paul Sporer

1:39

Probably all year bc his spot will always feel precarious. That said, I'm on the train! Scooped him in the Main Event and have been enjoying his fantastic starts

Joe

1:40

How long will I be disappointed that there's no podcast in my feed?

Paul Sporer

1:41

Until tomorrow! Sorry about Monday. I stayed up super late doing some work on Sunday night thinking that I was still a hip young night owl and that shit WIPED me outttt and basically busted up my Monday. I used to be able to bounce back from a 4am night so much more easily lol -- but yes, that was on me. We'll be back tomorrow and Friday!

Guest

1:41

Which of the young Orioles would you think has the most long term stability? Which one has the least?

Paul Sporer

1:44

Does Adley count as young at 26? As a college guy, he's a bit older than we might perceive. Beyond him, Gunnar absolutely looks like his running mate atop that team (with PLENTY of support!!). I don't have anyone that really stands out as destined to underachieve among their studs, would probably just tab one of the lower rated prospects, but then their expectations are gonna be much lower anyway

Guest

1:44

Corbin Carroll appears to be turning a corner. What do you think?

Paul Sporer

1:46

While I do think there could be something w/the shoulder that hinders the power, I just refuse to believe the AVG would stay down thatttt low, so I'm glad to see him hitting .333 over the last 2 wks, boosting his AVG 29 pts. It won't all come at once bc this run includes 5 multi hit gms (3 of 'em for 3 hits) but I won't be surprised if he maintains .300+ from here forward

Broken Bat

1:46

Carrol heating up in Arizona. Snakes have great shot at wild card given other division struggles. Are you seeing this? Figure they go,get a 3rd baseman in a trade, Suarez struggling, Does Patrick Wisdom of Cubs make sense?

Paul Sporer

1:47

And yes, I think they're fully in the mix still!

Rocco

1:48

I'm sending PabLo back out for the 6th- I hear some fantasy owners want a QS

Paul Sporer

1:48

Why you lie?

Will Graham

1:48

Picked up Bailey Ober off the wire in 6x6 12 teamer. 4.00/1.20 the rest of the way?

Paul Sporer

1:48

I like that bet. I love Ober! If he can tamp the HRs, he's a stud

Rocco

1:49

Nevermind.

SteveS

1:49

In a 12 team roto league with QS, would you drop Jose Soriano for Paddock?

Paul Sporer

1:53

I'd just play the schedule w/those 2 though I'm not sure that gives us a CLEAR answer: OAK, at OAK, at SEA, DET for Paddack | at ARI, MIL, OAK, DET -- Sori's MIL is the toughest single matchup. Once you factor in supporting cast, I think it is Paddack. I do love Soriano, but yeah Paddack here

Moar Z-O%

1:55

I have looked into Zswing%-Oswing% a little. An average-ish number is 38/39%. The top 3 qualified hitters are Seager, Judge and Tucker at over 51%. The bottom 3 are Thairo Estrada, CJ Abrams and Oneil Cruz at under 27% (next on the list is Rutschman at 26.9% BTW). It makes sense to me - who's swinging at strikes and not swinging at balls. Yes, Albies swings at a lot of balls but he also has the highest swing rate at strikes so he is 4th on the list at 49.3%. Conversely, someone like Frelick doesn't chase but he doesn't swing at strikes either so his Z-O% is 27.0% which is bad. I'm no mathematician but I did a scatter plot of Z-O% against wOBA and xwOBA and you can clearly see there is a decent relationship. Checks out on the pitching side too: Sale, Suarez, Houck and Burnes lead (looking at the flip side of the stat where low is good) while Lynn, Quantrill and Nestor lag. It would be another excellent data point to use in evaluating players

Paul Sporer

1:56

Is this secretly Justin gunning for more plate discipline metrics?

Thank you for the insights! Always down to look into other ways of evaluating players

Guest

1:56

Would you sell high on Paul Skenes in a redraft league, the thinking being he'll be at his innings limit by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around? I'm tempted to try something like Skenes for Carroll.

Paul Sporer

1:57

I'd be open to Carroll, though I do wonder if you'd even have to buy low on a premium bat w/Skenes

Irish Panda

1:57

What about Sandoval vs. Mize?

Paul Sporer

1:57

Are you fn w/me here... one of my faves I can never give up on and a Tiger?!?

1:58

I think Sandy offers more fantasy upside if you deploy him properly anddd get some luck

Nick

1:58

How close do you view Trevor Megill and Robert Suarez in a SVs+HLDs league?

Paul Sporer

1:58

Close w/mixing in the HLDs, big fan of both

1:59

Have I told y'all about Robert Suarez Main Event story?

ROYCE BOMB!

AW MAN, it was his 5th HR but only his 8th RBI... would've been sick if it had been his 5th HR/9th RBI (iykyk on that one)

Adenolith

1:59

Is Candelario somebody I need to roster again? Joey Ortiz is probably the drop.

Paul Sporer

2:00

Yes, I'm good w/that (and that's more pro-Candy than anti-Ortiz)

Broken Bat

2:00

Kjerstad of Orioles is going on age 26… h is playing KIDS 2-3 years younger a

Paul Sporer

2:00

He turned 25 in Feb, chill on "going on"

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