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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:03

Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

Zebulon 5

1:03

Zebby is one of the most fun names in baseball right now, yeah?

Paul Sporer

1:04

Absolutely!! I love Zebulon! It's not just a fun name, either, he did well in the minors and has a profile that can absolutely find success, especially with Joe Ryan's injury clearing the playing time path. I'm on the Zebby Matthews train to see where this goes

New SP rankings are live, btw, in case you missed 'em in the Chat post: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2024-in-season-starting-pitcher-rankings...

Paul!

1:05

Too early to forecast, but please do: Langford or Chourio ROS? Beyond? It seems like Langford will never be able to hit the fastball, while Jackson is making strides all around...

Paul Sporer

1:06

Love both but firm lean to Chourio between the 2. He just has the more robust fantasy profile right now and I think he will in the future, too, especially if we don't see Langford's power come together.

Roger

1:07

Hi Paul. I have starting staff of Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Jack Flaherty, Bailey Ober, Cole Ragans, Taj Bradley, Hunter Brown and Nick Pivetta. I also have Jared Jones and Jacob DeGrom on IL. I like my staff and don’t want to drop anyone to activate Jared Jones & Jacob DeGrom. But if you had to, who would you drop?

Paul Sporer

1:08

Yeah I love this group and would prefer to hold everyone, but if someone has to go, it's Pivetta. He's the lowest ranked by far in my latest update.

Dougly

1:08

Should I look to move Taj or do you think he'll get back on track?

Paul Sporer

1:13

Both could be yes, tbh. I don't think it's a terrible idea to shop him even if we like him to get back on track just bc TB could start curbing his IP down the stretch if they fall deeper out of contention. Not that they have to as he did throw just over 140 last yr, but it's on the table w/them bc of how they manage their arms. I still have him ranked 30th so the confidence isn't gone, but I'm very much open to shopping him to see where the broader market is at. If they come weak w/offers bc of his last 3 starts, then hold, but if he's still drawing strong returns, I'd say sell for this year

Paul!

1:13

Nick Martinez? He's been lights out since he returned to the rotation (albiet a sss).

Paul Sporer

1:20

He has and I really liked Martinez w/SDP last yr, but immediately jumped of when he went to CIN bc of his HRs and that park. He was a career 1.4 HR9 guy coming into the year, but has sliced it in half (thanks in part to a 6% HR/FB) rate which has turned him into a more usable arm for sure... but still not at home: 4.41 ERA/1.35 WHIP at home (49 IP); 1.71/0.68 on the road (42 IP) so I like him as a Team Streamer. Then it comes down to how much you believe in HR suppression and/or the home-road splits bc KCR/OAK/MIL line up as his next 3, all at home. If I'm in more of a chase mode where I need some longshots to catch fire, I could take a chance on the 2-step next wk w/OAK & MIL, but otherwise I might look elsewhere for a streamer w/a better upcoming schedule

B'Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs

1:20

Day Baseball with an ace pitching! LOVE it.

Paul Sporer

1:24

Varland putting up a nice battle w/Ragans, too, so it's been a helluva game between 2 contenders!

Emil

1:24

According to your rankings you would keep Festa over Zebby the rest of the season correct?

Paul Sporer

1:24

I mean, in the straight ranking sure, but they are 6 spots apart and I was ranking Zebby blind based on his #s and the reports I've read on him. I'm not sure I have them much different, I like both, so pick your fave

V for Vendetta

1:25

With Caminiero up, I've got an extra bat (daily moves, AL, OBP league). Who do I cut? Andrew Vaughn, Varsho, Verdugo?

Paul Sporer

1:25

amazing username w/this question lol

(imagine if that's all I said and didn't answer it)

1:26

Duggie has to go. He's been in the tank for months at this point while Vaughn is on a bit of an upswing and Varsho is just solid-average.

Spaceman

1:26

Hey Paul, in a saves/hold redraft league is Reed Garrett valuable?

Paul Sporer

1:30

I don't think so, he really came unglued before the injury and wasn't really accumulating a ton of SV/HD even during his heyday early on this year so I'd look elsewhere

Ray

1:30

What's going on with Taj Bradley? 3 clunkers in a row...

Paul Sporer

1:31

There are definitely specifics we can get into, but broadly it's standard pitching volatility from a 23-yr old

1:32

A couple HRs in the MIA/HOU starts and then 12 base runners v. STL, so assuming he's healthy, he's battling his stuff a bit

Rickey

1:33

Is Jake McCarthy’s hot streak a sign he’s for real, and is he a keeper in dynasty leagues?

Paul Sporer

1:43

It's akin to what we saw in 2022 w/a better K% rate and we saw that it didn't hold w/the meager 2023. All told, he's like a 10-12 HR/35-40 SB guy in a full season and he's playing every day right now. I think anyone with legit 40 SB capability is pretty viable in a dynasty. He pushed Alek Thomas back to the minors so they are probably looking at Gurriel-McCarthy-Carroll as the starting 3 OFs next year

Jake

1:43

Is Seth Lugo's recent performance a result of regression to his underlying stats (LOB%, fip, etc), or a result of his workload? Maybe both?

Paul Sporer

1:51

The schedule pairing up w/some regression of those stats mostly. The velo is still holding firm, but that doesn't mean the dog days aren't hitting him a bit. He hasn't just fallen apart or anything because despite the elevated ERA (5.73) his FIP is still a not horrible 4.19

1:53

He's got a home 2-step next wk that I'm definitely not skipping (LAA/PHI) but then Seth Lugo has a trip to HOU the following week that is far from must start

V for Vendetta

1:53

I could also try to flip Vaughn for Correa. Or just cut Verdugo.

Paul Sporer

1:53

I don't hate that deal, but I'd still cut Verdugo

Festa!

1:54

Festa is ranked with the team streamers. (Thanks for the ranks!) What does that mean for Texas?

Paul Sporer

1:55

Texas can still make me uneasy bc I know on a given night they can go off, but at some point I can't ignore the 26th ranked wOBA v. righties for the year and as such, I'm gonna start an intriguing young arm like Festa

B'Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs

1:55

Where was DL Hall on the ranking list? I didn't see him. He has RP eligibility in my points league.

Paul Sporer

1:56

I don't think he's in their rotation - Peralta, Rea, Myers, Civale, Montas, so I didn't rank him

Dave

1:56

Presuming no public red flags, where are you ranking Alcantara going into next year?

Paul Sporer

1:57

40s? He will be 18 months removed from his TJ so I have a little more confidence than a standard 13-15 mo. TJ returner, but I can't skyrocket him back into the upper class bc we don't know what kinda workload he's gonna get and volume is a huge part of his game

Burned out

1:58

Would you stop j hoffman for kopech rn in a NSVH league?

Paul Sporer

2:00

Kopech has looked amazing w/LAD while Hoff is in a bit of lull so I don't mind the hot hand play. I think Hoffman should be fine and will continue to get his share, but Kopech is seemingly always coming into leveraged and quickly becoming a big part of their pen

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