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Paul Sporer

1:54

Gahhh, sounds like a shallower 1-C league. I love Moreno, but I just know Salvy is gonna get hot and start cooking. Buuuttt in a 1-C shallower format, I get it espec. bc I don't think Moreno's run is a fluke so even if Perez gets back on track as I suspect, I don't think Moreno will collapse

Aranda

1:54

Makes sense. Just a follow up - sounds like he should be rostered in 12 team formats, agree?

Paul Sporer

1:54

Yes I'm def rostering & holding Aranda in 12s

Colton

1:54

no question, just going down a rabbit hole trying to figure out Jordan Walker and WOOF it's bad

Paul Sporer

1:55

Been a fan throughout his brief MLB career and want him to succeed, but it's hard to find any real positives that don't focus on his prospect pedigree

CI Q

1:59

Who has the best ROS, Soderstrom or Manzardo?

Paul Sporer

2:02

Oooh that's a fun toss-up, gimme Soderstrom there. Talent-wise, they're pretty close, but Soderstrom has 1B/OF elig. while Manzo is 1B-only. I also prefer Soderstrom's park. So it's some soft factors, but that pushes me toward Soderstrom in an otherwise very close battle

rodman

2:02

Thanks for doing these. Who do you like more in a vacuum, B Lowe or shaw?

Paul Sporer

2:02

big Brandon Lowe fan!

Sam

2:02

Hi! Drop Tanner Bibee for Will Warren?

Paul Sporer

2:02

What kinda lg? 10 or 12 teams seemingly?

Sam

2:02

Dynasty league

2:03

Paul Sporer

2:05

At the risk of overreacting to Bibee's slow start, I think I'm gonna pull the trigger there and get Warren. If Bibee's K% wasn't down 10 pts and his SwStr down 4 pts, I'd probably hang with him a bit more but it's been such a drop-off that I'm willing to pivot Warren

Dylan

2:06

Is Santander droppable at this point? Even at his best he’s an OBP drain and can’t wait around forever for this to turn

Paul Sporer

2:13

I have a hard time moving on, but it just might be time in 10s and 12s. This has been a weakness in my game in shallower lgs since I'm so 15-team focused, but the more I look, the more I see a justifiable cut. His .216 BABIP is low, but he only ran a .225 last yr and is at just .253 the last 4 yrs. His xBA is only .206 so a reallyyy low AVG was always in the range of the outcomes. Outside of the power spike he wasn't fundamentally different last yr, so if he hadn't hit 44 HRs last yr, we probably wouldn't even be asking this question but instead just moving on in shallower formats (I am holding firm in 15s as I just don't think the wire has better to offer) so despite paying the higher draft premium this yr, I can see moving on if someone on the wire has your attention

Reese in Pieces

2:13

Why did Reese Olson have to hit the IL right when he was blossoming?

Paul Sporer

2:15

Right??? I'm so bummed!! We can take solace in the fact that it's a finger injury which feels more manageable than an arm injury so perhaps just a small blip in the midst of a breakthrough season. Maybe they aren't ready to push him for 180 IP anyway so this can serve as one of a couple small breaks they might've already been planning for Olson

Insert Witty Name Here

2:15

I YOLO’d on Max Meyer, loved that snippet in your daily SP write up.

Paul Sporer

2:18

Sometimes I just want to bet on the talent and see how it goes! I've been very careful with CHC but Meyer was a prospect favorite of mine and I love what he's been doing so I wanted to give those on the fence the nudge if they were looking to start him.

I'm also one of those inclined to be a bit riskier early on knowing there's time to chase and despite popular opinion, ratios can and do move a lot throughout the season. The tide has been turning on that old adage, led by Todd Zola in recent years underscoring how much ratios can change even in Aug-Sept, so that has emboldened me to take some of those riskier shots, espec. earlier in the season.

Guest

2:18

In a redraft league, is Cristopher Sanchez good value for an underperforming Michael Harris? Should we expect a Harris bounce back to a large degree?

Paul Sporer

2:21

That's a pretty fair deal if you're a Harris believer. I'm not the biggest fan but he's better than this .224 AVG/.257 BABIP combo. Speed alone elevates his BABIP floor and it's higher than .257 IMO. So yeah, even being more tepid on Harris and a big Sanchez fan, I can totally see that as a fair deal on both ends.

Ranger Danger

2:21

Is Marcus Semien droppable in a 12T roto league? I've been shopping him to no avail and have more or less stapled him to my bench. My only hesitation is that the wire is thin: Meidroth, Rafaela, Fitzgerald, Norby and Vargas are the best IF options out there. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer

2:28

Few bigger fans of Semien than myself and yet I can see a drop. He's just draining the AVG right now w/little heat around it (3 HR/2 SB). I'm basically an anti-Fitzgerald fan, but I'm OK w/the swap. Ride Fitzy's BABIP and improved K% (though he's still whiffing a ton so it could be a mirage) to see where it goes. Maybe circle back to Semien if he finds it. If it was just this season with Semien, I'd be holding the line for sure, but when you factor in last yr, the fact he's in his mid-30s, and the bat slowing down, we can't ignore what we're seeing.

Many were ready to make the call in draft season, but I was open to buying in case it was more of a blip than the beginning of the end. His plate skills were in line with 2023 and it was really just a 41 pt drop in BABIP dragging the numbers down... or so I thought. K% now at his highest since 2014, BABIP remains in the tank as he's just not striking the ball particularly well. He's no doubt better than .175 but not necessarily better than last yr's .237

Father Time remains undefeated!

Margin Walker

2:31

Hassell get enough run in the next few days to be worth the hastle?

Paul Sporer

2:34

I'll be keeping an eye on him. 3-time Top 100 Prospect still just 23 yrs old and has 4 HR/9 SB in AAA so he could bring some fantasy juice if the playing time is there

Bob

2:34

Abrams and Rooker fair for Carroll? 12-team HTH

Paul Sporer

2:34

Yeah that feels pretty good

2:34

Think the reds might get aggressive enough to bring up chase burns by the end of the year? He certainly seems ready for a promotion to triple A.

Paul Sporer

2:36

He is 22 yrs old with high level NCAA experience so I don't think they have to baby him. If they deem him ready this summer, I can totally see him coming up, even if only out of the pen as a multi-IP force. Definitely been keeping tabs on Burns bc once you're in Double-A, you're a call away these days.

Tom

2:36

Generally how many bad starts in a row before you drop a decent (not ace) pitcher? ex: Megill, Max Mayer.

Paul Sporer

2:41

Depends on league size. Shallower - gotta have a quicker trigger so maybe 2-3 I'm gonna start looking, especially if the skills are deteriorating and it's not a super tough schedule. Deeper leagues it's going to depend what's on the wire and for guys like Megill and Meyer, I haven't seen enough on the wire to move off them before 3-4 bad starts in a row. Meyer has nasty skills and just handled the Cubs today. He's got a great amount of leeway with me right now even with low W potential.

Megill has at least 2 bad ones in a row and maybe 3 depending how you feel about the at STL one. Now it was at STL, v. CHC, and at NYY so a REALLY tough slate which definitely takes some sting out of the numbers (8.76 ERA, 2.05 WHIP). Then I check the upcoming schedule to see if an oasis is coming. In Megill's case, there very much is one next start: v. CHW. So I'm holding through that (and likely starting him). If he doesn't rebound there, then we have to start to question his status in all formats....

2:42

...especially with an at LAD/at COL 2-step after the CHW week.

foptop

2:42

Would you drop B Lowe for Shaw?

Paul Sporer

2:42

No, I'm holding Lowe

Phil Dunphy

2:42

Is Sal Perez a drop at this point in a 12 teamer? Or just bench him while riding Agustin?

Paul Sporer

2:43

I'd really try to bench. Is it a 1-C lg? If so, I understand not wanting to hold 2, but I just feel like Salvy has a tear coming sooner than later

Soup

2:43

In general, how do you feel about rostering large portions of one team? I started the season with Tucker and Hoerner but have since picked up Busch and Shaw. Bad strategy?

Paul Sporer

2:43

I have zero issue at all. If they're good, they're good! Sure, it stings when they get shutout on occasion, but it's awesome when they score 8-10 and you're getting a tonnnn of that heat

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