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Paul Sporer

1:06

Hey y'all, welcome to the chat!!

No! Ugh...

1:06

Are you scared of the recent Noah Cameron fall-off or just a blip?

Paul Sporer

1:06

It's only 1 bad start. He gets more leeway than that. But 2-3 in a row would be cause for concern w/a rookie

1:07

BRB, gotta let the dogs out early in the chat, sorry about that... but we'll good to go after that

80-grade hair

1:07

Is the Password just a small side platoon bat with a 80-grade nickname and lustrous hair? Will he be worth keeping for $10 in AL Only?

Paul Sporer

1:07

Yes I think so and thus hard to keep at 10.... ok now taking the pups

1:10

Coming up on 30 days to go.....when do we really start protecting ratios? Is that time now?

Paul Sporer

1:12

Absolutely now if you can. The standings are king from here on out so all decisions should be funneled through the filter of your standings more so than pure talent. That can lead to cutting some great SB asset for a middle power guy bc you're set in speed but need everything else. This is also manifests in SP/RP overload and in Sept. you might see some legitimately good SPs hitting the wire if someone is going all RPs to chase SVs

Trap or Keeper

1:12

Hey Paul! Could you rank these keepers for AL only, obp? Schanuel ($4), Varsho ($4), J Polanco ($1), the Pasword ($10)?

Paul Sporer

1:13

I think that's the rank w/the 2 $4 guys being a coin flip!

May Day?

1:13

I was never gonna start Dustin May @NYY, but should I be worried the Red Sox magic is wearing off?

Paul Sporer

1:15

Absolutely should be worried as I wasn't fully sold before the NYY meltdown (which I agree we shouldn't hold too hard against him bc we were never using him there). He can have good starts when he's on, but the looming specter of a season-killing start is enough to keep me away.

Guest

1:19

Have a 9.56 ERA and 1.81 WHIP through 16 innings of this playoff matchup. Thanks Hoffman, Duran, and Ryan.

Paul Sporer

1:19

🫂 gooood lort that's painful!

Guest

1:19

Cam Schlittler turning into a 2026 draft darling?

Paul Sporer

1:20

Without a doubt. And depending how well September goes, he could be a full scale helium guy that maybe ends up going too high especially since Yankee Tax alone would assure he's never hidden but yeah I'm super excited about his talent!!

Yordan not Yor-done!

1:20

With Yordan back, I need a CUT (AL daily OBP league): Meidroth, Password, India?

Paul Sporer

1:21

Gotta be Password bc playing time is king, especiallyyyy in deeper formats like that and he just doesn't play enough compared to the others

Matt

1:21

Thoughts on Troy Melton as a 2026 spec add in dynasty? Thinking he's got a) a rotation spot and b) fantasy relevance next year?

Paul Sporer

1:22

Absolutely love it. This RP shift is definitely tamping his value down for 2026 and I suspect he'll make at least 1 of my first 2-3 Draft Champions leagues as a result. He might enter the season at the 6 or 7 but he could also easily make the rotation out of camp. The talent is insane, though, so I'm fully on board w/him. He might be more the darling than Schlittler if only bc of price difference.

1:23

Schlittler will be a sleeper/later round-type in 10s and shallower. Melton will be that in the deeper formats

bdubs

1:23

12T, mixed, 4x4 traditional Roto
According to reports, Chourio returning perhaps by this weekend, who to drop? Anthony, Grisham, Carpenter, or LSosa (would move Altuve from OF back to 2B).

Paul Sporer

1:23

Ooh that's tough....

1:28

I think it's still Sosa, but he deserves a shoutout for the sneaky strong campaign. He's been a great fill-in piece in shallower formats where he's no doubt bounced around the league while he's been a superutility mainstay in deeper formats, qualifying at 1B/2B/3B (and thus CI/MI) w/17 HR and 60 RBIs in 436 PA and a solid .272 AVG, though just a .299 OBP. Still just 26 yrs old next year, Sosa has kinda stair-stepped his way up and I wonder if there's even a tick or so more if he can wrangle 600+ PA next year.

Chip

1:29

Would you drop Will Warren for Tong with H2H playoffs coming up? Warren's second-half performance hasn't been great, and Tong struck out all of the minors.

Paul Sporer

1:37

Tong is fun & interesting, but I think I'm trying to hold Warren and maybe cut someone else? Warren's 2H isn't great in the aggregate, but it's really just 2 bad starts - his 1st one outta the break and his most recent one. Even w/those, it's a 4.04 ERA in the 2H, but the WHIP is a hideous 1.39. The 5 starts in between those 2 is a 1.93 ERA/1.11 WHIP.

It's hard to know how Tong will be used. He just hit his IP count from last yr so I don't see why they can't just give regular starts, but rookies are SUCH a wildcard. The upside is rich, but the downside is of course severe. If Warren is your only cut, maybe let the schedules decide the choice. I'd give Warren the edge straight up, so Tong would need a markedly better schedule to overtake for me

Adenolith

1:37

Chasing ratios in a h2h cat matchup. Is Tong a good start next week? What about Lodolo vs Tor?

Paul Sporer

1:38

No rookie is ever a *good* start when you're chasing just bc of their insane volatility. I don't mind throwing him, but it's super risky. I'm avoiding Toronto if I'm chasing or protecting anything pitching-wise. My aces still start v. them, but anyone outside a locked ace is hitting the pine

Kyle

1:38

Cam Smith has really been scuffling as of late. Typical rookie growing pains or is there some long term (dynasty league) cause for concern?

Paul Sporer

1:39

Almost assuredly just rookie growing pains. August is the dogs days for a reason and it's particularly so for rookies taking that first 6-month MLB grind. Cam's held his own and I'll be happy to buy him up next year at what I believe will be a remarkably fair price. Still tons of upside IMO

Bruce

1:39

2026 and beyond E Perez or H Greene? (do the parks matter enough to bump EP?)

Paul Sporer

1:42

Parks do matter, but both are aces at their best. I needed to see more from Greene this year as a non-believer and I have seen it. I knew the HRs would regress and he's survived it by nearly halving his BB% and not losing anything on the Ks. Eury's excellent and it's so awesome how quickly he got back on track this year from injury, but we still haven't seen a 100-IP season outta him so I gotta go Greene.

Ben L

1:42

What’s your best advice for trying to chase close race in BA in the last month? The small sample size is really unnerving. Thanks!

Paul Sporer

1:46

Here's what I'd be looking at if trying to stream AVG in a close race (whether picking up guys or making start/sit decisions): groundball/line drive hitters, friendly venues, and bad defenses that might be more apt to not to get singles in the holes. bad pitchers, of course, but that's obvious.

the small sample sizes are super frustrating and it's suuuch a brutal stat to track day-to-day bc the .100-somethings are so gut-punching. gotta just stick with your process and hope the hits fall. and also don't freak out if you're 10% K rate guy hitting .280 goes 0-4 while your 30% K/.220 AVG backup C goes 3-4 on your bench. process over results. you gotta put your team in the best spots to succeed based on the info we've got and then we go from there. Tough cat to manage/chase, but don't give up. I think AVG is sneakiest late mover on the board.

Chris

1:46

What would you put as the odds that Tong stays in the rotation after Friday? or even in the big leagues?

Paul Sporer

1:47

45 yes/55 no (of course he could leave & come back Monday for roster expansion lol)

Cristian Charity

1:47

Cristian Javier seems to be giving away free passes. Is he a hold in AL only or would an RP (Whitlock, T. Ferguson) be better?

Paul Sporer

1:49

RP might just be the safer path. Javier's BB% has never been all that good even at his best, but it was 13% in his 35 IP last yr and remains there through 10 IP this yr. 45 IP still small but Javier struggling more w/BBs off injury isn't at all surprising

Matt

1:49

Ottoneu, trying to decide my final start: Zebby SDP, G Williams SEA, Singer STL, Bieber MIL or Cameron DET. Can you rank these?

Paul Sporer

1:50

Think I'm goin Biebs, Cam, Gav, Singer, Zebby (not fully out on Zebby, just more worried about new look Padres)

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