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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:06

Hello everyone, Happy New Year and thanks for coming out!!!

Greg

1:06

I have one of the best teams in my league that's pretty even based on hitting and pitching quality keepers. 12 team points league. Who would you pick as my last three keepers: Samuel Basallo (9th round), Kevin McGonigle (25th), Zach Neto (3rd), Trey Yesavage (25th), Alex Bregman (25th).

That's for a keep forever league - sorry meant to add that.

Paul Sporer

1:11

I feel like I wanna run the 3 round 25ers (presumably the other 2 would be 23rd/24th which is still good) buuutttt push come to shove I'd go Neto over Yesavage. Yes, he's high priced, but he has 20/30 and 25/25 seasons the last 2 years at SS. So ya, Neto-Breg-McGonigle for me

Dave

1:14

Facing a few contract extensions in my NL only league. Would you extend any of the following; H. Ramos, Vientos and I. Herrera? Future playing time and position eligibility are concerns with each of them

Paul Sporer

1:21

Yes very valid concerns. Herrera can absolutely rake, but he's DH-only and unlikely to even earn in-season C this year. I still might take a shot extending him in NL only though bc the bat is so good. How long are the extensions? Vientos is someone I like as a player but my fantasy brain keeps me at arms length distance. In other words, I understand his flaws so my fandom doesn't cloud my judgment. I hooope he fixes his K issues, but I doubt he will. I think Ramos is SF fixture for the next year or two as long as he doesn't melt w/the bat so he could be extendable, too.

Herrera - yes (if it's not TOO many yrs)
Ramos - maybe, leaning yes
Vientos - no, but would redraft at a cheaper price bc I love the power, just not the plate skills

BlueJays

1:21

Convince me that Cody Ponce is for real. History shows otherwise

Paul Sporer

1:31

History does show otherwise, you're right, but that's the case for all the guys who go overseas and come back with higher expectations. For Ponce specifically, it isn't just his big success in the KBO bc stats alone don't get a contract like that. His velo shot up from 92 to 95-96 while in the KBO and he picked up a splitter, which also happens to be the key pitch for 2 of his new teammates - veteran Gausman and youngster Yesavage.

At $10 mil per yr, they don't need him to be a stud, in fact he can be a 5th-6th SP type and earn that, but that kind of contract for a prospect flameout turned KBO stud is an indication that they believe they can get quite a bit from him. For fantasy, he's going off around SP90 right now so you can take a shot and not need much to get a return, either. I'm pretty keen on Ponce and wouldn't be surprised if he moves up my SP ranking when I updated his profile (probably in the next update). https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2026-fantasy-rankings/

Matt

1:31

How do you look at delayed starts? I have Rodon at a price I'd be comfortable with for a full season. He's going to start late, but I feel getting rid of him for those missed games would be risky/wasteful, though if it ends up that he misses more games than expected, I could really use a reallocation of that $15

Paul Sporer

1:35

I'm not against them in IL leagues. I play almost exclusively NFBC-style leagues these days and they don't have ILs in their formats so I judge these players a bit more harshly at the draft table since we only have 7 reserves and 0 ILs, but in leagues in any IL spots, someone like Rodon is still draftable for me. He was on a no-throw program for 2 mos. from his mid-October surgery so his offseason only got going somewhere around Christmas assuming everything went well in recovery and he is expected to miss the start of the season, but we don't know how long yet. At $15, he doesn't need anywhere near a full season to deliver value to you. If he reaches triple digits IP, I like his chances at earning his contract for you

Matt

1:36

Is Bubba Chandler going to be an important part of my rotation in the second half?

Paul Sporer

1:40

I think so, yes and there's a real shot it's before that. He flashed good skills in his 31 IP sample to end 2025, including a major cutting of his BB% to 3% after running a 12% in AAA that definitely raised some eyebrows. I like that your expectations are pointing toward the 2nd half, but you could be happy from day 1 with ol' Bubba!

zmp

1:40

Paul chats are back! My vision of Miz's 2026 statline having a sub-4 ERA (even if barely) isn't tooo crazy right?

Paul Sporer

1:42

We're back!! So happy to be fully back in the fantasy grind of chats & articles! Not crazy at all. Jacob Misiorowski has a crazy range of outcomes bc of his command - or lack thereof a lot of times - to where he could be a top 20 SP all year or someone who's being passed around the league via waivers bc he's too inconsistent to trust. Baselining it with a high-3.00s ERA and a ton of Ks sets a solid expectation and shows you understand there's real risk but more than enough upside to salivate over!

Insert Witty Name Here

1:42

Always love your pitching rankings, your capsules are always enlightening. I’m always questioning the strategy with saves, and it changes depending on the year. What are your early strategy for saves?

Paul Sporer

1:49

Thanks so much! Already working on the next update after yesterday's big update of profiles, especially with this Edward Cabrera trade to CHC brewing! As for SVs, I'm fully on the Pay for Saves train in that I really want to get one of the ever-dwindling established studs and then go from there. It's pretty hard to get 2 studs these days but if it's something like a Draft Champions lg where I'm drafting all 50 of my players for the season, then I'm pushing hard for a competent 2nd closer, too.

In today's game, that might be someone who is the A-guy in a committee. So in a DC: I want stud, solid #2, and some well-thrown darts of guys who could be next up since there are no waivers. In any draft with waivers, I still want my ace closer but less likely to pay up for a 2nd true closer so I'll play some specs behind the ace + waivers in-season (despite hating the SV rat race)

Colton

1:49

How comfortable are you with Schwellenbach coming off a fracture elbow? Need to make a decision on him in my head-to-head points dynasty at $23 this year with a $500 budget. Feels like a keep but concerns about his health have me questioning it.

Paul Sporer

1:52

Comfortable enough for a Top 20 ranking, buuutt I also acknowledge that I don't really have to act on that ranking until I start joining drafts so I can wait until I have more info unlike yourself needing to make keeper choices sooner. Cut to the chase - I'm keeping him. Yes, it's risky if the elbow lingers and holds him back, but the upside is far too rich to pass at the price. I might even run him at $23 in a standard $260 so when you expand the budget to $500, it's an easy keep!

Kate

1:52

Are the Dodgers really going to let Rushing waste away either on the bench of at AAA? Feels like a guy that REALLY needs a trade.

Paul Sporer

1:58

Right? He seems way too good to be relegated to backup duty but he's just so firmly blocked at the spots he can play - C, 1B, maybe COF. A trade would be best for him and us fantasy dweebs, but not for the Dodgers IMO so I would be kinda surprised if they did move him at this point. While he is blocked, Will Smith played a career-low (for his full seasons) 110 gms and turns 31 this yr while Freddie gritted out 147 each of the last 2 yrs but did play through injuries and had an IL stint in 2025. So maybe they like having a premium backup like Rushing for 2 of their superstars.

sseville13

1:58

What's your take on Jonathan Aranda? He has fantastic underlying data and was productive last year prior to getting hurt, yet it seems like experts are lower on him than it feels like they should be? What's the catch with Aranda?

Paul Sporer

2:07

I, too, am surprised by his draft price because he was a fantasy darling who absolutely delivered albeit in just 106 gms. If I had to guess, I'd say it's the lack of volume, the .409 BABIP and the move back to the Trop. He already doesn't have a traditional 1B power profile with a 21 HR full-season pace, so moving back to the Trop might make him more of a teens-HR hitter, but then he's more in line with teammate Yandy Diaz as a ++ AVG asset with some pop.

Yandy's going 40 picks over Aranda which is covered by the other 2 elements I mentioned: track record & BABIP. Yandy is a proven AVG asset and even has a 20 HR season in the Trop and he's never needed a completely unsustainable BABIP to get there. So while I did think Aranda would shoot higher up in ADP, after going through it, I can see why he's trending around pick 180 making a very reasonable buyback if you loved him last year and he doesn't even need to repeat to pay off.

H-Back

2:07

Any worries about Camden as a home park with potential exposure to multiple O's starters on my staff?

Paul Sporer

2:14

No, I wouldn't be OVERLY worried. I've done a 180 on their staff, too, and now would target several guys for my rotation (namely Rogers and Bradish, but maybe Baz too -- never been the biggest Bazian, though). They moved Walltimore in last year and offense did return in a big way as Camden was 2nd to only Dodger Stadium (!) in HR park factor at 121 after running a 93 factor for the first three years of the wall move.

It's fair to once again lower expectations a little from pitchers in Camden v. what we were doing from 2022-24, but I wouldn't actively run from them bc of the park. I believe in a healthy Rogers & Bradish and could even see myself taking a shot on Baz in the right sitch. I might be less inclined to go for a personal fave of mine like Zach Eflin bc of the return to offense in Camden, but I'm still on the studs (which again, Baz isn't part of me for yet -- just Rog and Brad)

2:14

Projection systems don't seem to be buying Trevor Rogers' 2025 performance. What's your take? Split the difference between last year's results and this year's projections?

Paul Sporer

2:18

Yeah it seems like the projections I've seen are just a 3 yr avg which is tough bc he was injured in one, recovering in another, and then studded out in the third. I don't think we ignore the first two just bc they're bad, but unless we think he's gonna be hurt/ineffective again, it's hard to give 2023-24 too much weight. I'd let his 2025 SIERA of 3.75 drive my ERA projection while his 18% K-BB is something he can come close to matching or exceeding. As mentioned in the above response, I'm back in on Rogers!

Buffy, the Umpire Slayerer

2:18

Kurtz and Roman Anthony project very high in the few projection system currently available. How worried should you be about them given their very short history?

Paul Sporer

2:28

Definitely have to carry some concern for the young studs bc we know they aren't finishing products. Both ran very high K% rates and BABIPs... generally the former stays and latter falls. Kurtz is a firm top 20 pick and while I do understand the excitement, I just can't get there for a 31% K rate power hitter. Hell, we saw how much his AVG tracked directly to his crazy BABIPs. From May on bc he only had 25 PA in April: .279 - .293 - .511 - .451 -.233 -- there is massive AVG downside for a 2nd round pick with Kurtz. There is also 50-HR upside so I understand why there's so much excitement.

Anthony goes around pick-60, still expensive, especially since he didn't do anywhere near as much as Kurtz in 2025. His 28% K rate is born more of passivity that a heavy swing-and-miss component like Kurtz, but of course he also doesn't have Kurtz's power. Anthony probably won't have a standout category for fantasy, but rather contribute everywhere (though maybe not THAT much in SBs with 4 in 303 MLB PA).

Concerned First Pick Holder

2:29

who do you take first overall, Judge or Ohtani?

Paul Sporer

2:29

Ohtani personally, but I don't think you can go "wrong". It's personal preference imo

Perkins

2:29

On Aranda: In daily leagues he could be a ++ platoon bat too, in '25 he hit 157 wrc+ vs. RHP (106 from '22-'24, 132 career). Especially in a points league like Ottoneu could be great value vs. cost in that role this year.

Paul Sporer

2:30

Yes that's a great call. Even in NFBC where it isn't daily but changes are allowed on Mondays & Fridays, you can get him out when he's set to face multiple lefties in a period and curate even stronger production from him!

2:30

Welcome back! Thanks for doing the chat ... another NL-only keeper question. 10-team roto with OBP, R+RBI, SB-CS, HR and TB. Looking at OFs - Seiya (23), D.Crews (10), Heliot (10), M.HarrisII (22)? I don't think any are obvious keeps, but all are ... maybeish?

Paul Sporer

2:36

Compelling group... agreed they aren't all obvious but there's a case for all of 'em. Crews and Seiya are my faves. I still believe in Crews and think he has top tier fantasy upside. Seiya's 30-100 season was weirdly a semi-bummer bc his AVG cratered by nearly 40 pts but that seems to be mostly him eating a tough BABIP for the first time stateside.

After .347 in his first 3 seasons, he dipped to .282 last yr and I don't see anything suggesting he really deserved that kind of dip. He pulled the ball more and that could've yielded more playable pulled groundballs for easy outs, but that's the only substantial change I can see doing a cursory look over his profile last yr. So maybe he doesn't rip 32 HRs again, but trade in 5-6 of those for 20-25 pts of BABIP recovery and that'd be a helluva season again.

Heliot is interesting to me (mentioned him in an earlier question, too) and should get a chance to easily earn that $10 but if you have limited spots, he might not make the cut.

As for Harris, I've always been light on him so I can't get there for $22

Doc Estes

2:36

In yesterday's chat Justin indicated Eflin would not be in the Orioles starting rotation. Do you concur? If yes, who is the fifth starter?

Paul Sporer

2:38

Who'd he have in over him? I don't think I agree. He doesn't really play up in the pen, so he makes sense as a starter. Tyler Wells could contend for the spot, but once I read that Eflin's expected to be ready for OD, I penciled him into Baltimore's 5th spot

Steve

2:38

Is Carlos Estevez established enough as a closer to be one of your targets for those two clear-cut closers?

Paul Sporer

2:45

Yes, 3 straight years over 25 SVs and an MLB high 42 this past season has me drafting him as such. It'd be prudent to plan for 30-32 just to be safe but they seem comfortable w/Estevez closing and Erceg setting up. Neither missed enough bats to be truly special last year but if Erceg spikes his K% back up 2024's 29% while Estevez stays stagnant in the low-20%s, that could facilitate a switch so maybe you prioritize Erceg as your top dart throw if you pair Estevez with an RP ace and especially so if you wait and make Estevez your RP ace himself.

2:46

Excellent questions for the debut chat of 2026, y'all! Wish I could get to them all, but I gotta head out. Chats will be consistent for the remainder of the offseason barring a schedule conflict... we're back, talk to y'all next week!!

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