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2:05

Many many thanks to you & Justin & Joe for the pre-season ranking podcasts - part of my daily commute in Chicago on the L (to paint a pic of the scene ha).

SBs aside, it seems like Vlad Jr. is perpetually a top 5 batter in projection systems, but discounted in drafts... is it crazy to think he could get back to 35 HRs with that .300 average? He seems infinitely safer an asset compared to Cal (Catcher innings catch up), Kurtz (youngling), and maybe even Schwarber with his batting average floor at cost. I also put him above Lindor & Caminero... What do you think?

Paul Sporer

2:08

I'm glad you're enjoying them! I love preview season so much! And no, you're not off on Vlad Jr. at all. Despite being all of 27 yrs old, he's pretty much already in the boring "old" man phase of his fantasy career where he's just kinda ho-hum drafted in the 15-20 pick range without much fanfare as if he hasn't been consistently excellent for 5 yrs.

Even if we lop off the magic 2021 when he ripped 48 HRs, he's averaged 28 per season since so he wouldn't need some skill transformation to run into 7-8 more next year. You draft him for the bankable elite AVG while also getting a guy with the upside to go .320-40 in any given season. Each has only happened once, but both happening together is in his range of outcomes.

Beano

2:09

Chances of TJ Rumfield getting the 1b gig in Colorado?
Abimelic Ortiz in Washington?

Paul Sporer

2:12

2-4% for Rumfield as he's not on the 40-man and blocked by guys who do the same stuff he can; closer to 35-40% for Ortiz, though.

He's on the 40, was traded for in the Gore deal, and has a more dynamic profile than Chapparo. Question is, do they want to move Garcia Jr. off of 2B and over to 1B to get Nunez/Abrams up the middle? Their best team has Nunez at 2B, Ortiz at 1B.

2:13

OK y'all, I gotta get going. Remember, got an SP update coming before the weekend and you can check out my Bold Predictions right here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2026-bold-predictions

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