JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

12:24

Hey y'all, have to run a tight 30 minutes today because of the podcast schedule, but let's talk some baseball!

Jeff

12:26

Paul - I read Nick's take on Musgrove's awful night last night. How do you feel about some recent poor starts?

Paul Sporer

12:26

It's funny this is the first Q... today's fireside is about Musgrove (& Darvish)

12:26

Will Detroit call up Casey Mize anytime soon?

Paul Sporer

12:27

Maaaaybe in the summer, but not this month or anything, IMO

12:27

Hey Paul, thanks as always for everything. A seemingly easy question, but kinda confounding at the same time -- pick two for next week: Strasburg @ Cubs, Castillo @ Cubs, or Montas @ Tigers

Paul Sporer

12:27

C'mon now....

Don't overthink things. There is no world where Montas even in a favorable matchup goes over Stras or Castillo

Tucker

12:27

Are Mikes Minor and Soroka pitchers you keep in a 12-team league, or would you drop one or both for a solid streamer?

Paul Sporer

12:27

I'd keep both right now

Dave

12:28

How far up your rankings does Giolito slide?

Paul Sporer

12:30

He's currrently 91st in SPs rankings (I update 'em through the month then post). I don't want overreact

Scott TINSTAAPP

12:30

ROS you prefer Anibal Sanchez or Merrill Kelly?

Paul Sporer

12:32

I think Kelly is slightly here right now, but they're about 10 spots about, so play the schedules

Also Paul

12:32

Kyle Gibson, FA in my league. (12 tm mixed) Gotta pick him up right?! Putting up good numbers and free lawn care...

Paul Sporer

12:33

The lawn care puts it over the top! But ya, scoop him for a 2-step next week

Dave

12:33

Hi what are your thoughts on Dylan Bundy as a back-end starter in an AL only league - his SwStrike rate has been higher this year. Thanks.

Paul Sporer

12:34

Ehhh.... I like the SwStr, but after a start @CLE, he's got outings v. NYY and @COL ... be very careful

Cory

12:34

I have an owner that's been chasing me for years for Nick Castellanos in a 14 team, 40 man roster keeper league. Today's offer: Jose Martinez and Domingo German for Casty. Would you take that one?

Paul Sporer

12:35

That totally works, especially if you need pitching

rex

12:35

is their legitimacy to early season chris bassitt?

Paul Sporer

12:37

Nearly 2x in SwStr and 7 pt boost in Chase rate gives the K rate some heat. The ERA/WHIP obviously won't stay *that* low, but I think there's something to keep an eye on here

Matt

12:38

Need some 1b help. My Hunter Renfroe ($8) or his Hunter Dozier ($4) in FGPts? Projections seem to favor Renfroe but Statcast loves Dozier.

Paul Sporer

12:38

I'd definitely do this. Big fan of Dozier and he's half price

Timmy

12:38

Whats the deal with LaStella? Has he taken a step forward or is this just smoke and mirrors?

Paul Sporer

12:43

There's at least a little something here. He's smacking the ball harder than ever and has upped his flyball rate by 16 pts. He's also walking 2x as much as he's striking out so he's seeing the ball well. He didn't completely come by these HRs outta nowhere. The 27% HR/FB rate will return back to Earth eventually, I think we could get another 10-12 HR over the balance of the season, a far cry from his pace, but still pretty substantial for Tommy La Stella

12:43

Optimistic, pessimistic or meh about Kipnis ROS?

Paul Sporer

12:43

Incredibly meh

Jason

12:43

Traded Paddack for Dee Gordon. Ugh.

Paul Sporer

12:44

These HBPs are getting so frustrating this year

Bones

12:44

Hey Paul - Josh Bell is sure playing like a top 5-7 Dynasty 1B, how sold are you on his chances to stick there?

Paul Sporer

12:45

Justin and I discussed him on yesterday's pod - https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-684-sur... -- we're fans and think his pop has legitimacy

Scott TINSTAAPP

12:45

Shed Long worth a spec in 12 or 15 teamers?

Paul Sporer

12:45

15 sure, but I'm not sure about 12s

Rob

12:45

rank these guys please: Dwight Smith Jr, Ramon Laureano, and Jorge Soler? And where in comparison to a pitcher like Marco Gonzales? Thanks!

Paul Sporer

12:46

I think you've ranked the OFs as I see think. Gonzales would sneak in between Smith & Laureano for me

Darren

12:46

What are your thoughts on Tyler Mahle? He's changed his pitches and FIP/xFIP/SIERA seem to suggest good things.

Paul Sporer

12:50

Love that he's cut his walk rate in half. He's keep the ball down more, which is likely helping the HR rate improvement. I'm not sure I see a path for the K rate to hold, but I'd take a 21-22% K rate with this walk rate and improved HR rate. Solid streamer.

12:50

Is Verdugo 10 team viable? What does he have to do to get Roberts to start him vs LHP? Roberts' platooning seems to be becoming dogmatic. Verdugo has a 198 wrc+ vs LHP in '19 and 130 wrc+ vs LHP for career

Paul Sporer

12:55

Dig Verdugo, but he's probably fringe in a 10-teamer as a strong side platoon guy. Agree on the general pt re: Roberts' platooning (particularly with Muncy), but for Verdugo's #s you're essentially double-counting this year bc it carries alllll the weight in that career figure.

He has an 1.127 OPS thanks to a .417 BABIP in 32 PA, which is 57% of the sample. He did nothing in useless samples of 19 and 5 PA the last 2 seasons. I do get frustrated seeing young hitters auto-platooned bc they'll never get better v. LHP if they never get to regularly face them, but Roberts is also trying to win games and has a deep team.

If it's 5 OF for the 10 teamer, you can reserve him or maybe even make him your 5th. But if it's 3 OF, you might just try to spot him on weeks with 0-1 lefties on the slate.

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