JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer

1:28

Hello everyone! It's offseason time, let's talk some baseball!

Curtis

1:29

What "breakout" in 2020 do you think is legit? Conversely, which players stellar 2020 is least likely to repeat in 2021 and beyond?

Paul Sporer

1:31

Here's 4 breakouts I checked out recently: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/assessing-4-unexpected-hitting-breakouts... -- I'm a little dubious on Teoscar Hernandez, which pains me as I like him. But I'm not sure there were any major changes sustaining the breakout and with four more months, he'd have meandered back toward his level or maybe finished a bit higher, but not at the clip we saw

Michael

1:32

I have a trade offer of Austin Meadows for Gerritt Cole even up. You can keep Meadows two fantasy seasons; Cole one. Cole is marginally more expensive (bidding league). Thoughts on Meadows?

Paul Sporer

1:33

I'm OK giving Meadows a bit of a pass for '19 as he wound with just a month after dealing with COVID, but I don't think I want to do this deal. I'll take my 1 ace season of Cole

Chuck

1:33

Hi, Paul. Do you call your car the Paul Bearer? Because you could.

Paul Sporer

1:33

I could... and frankly, I absolutely should

Slapshot

1:37

Would you expect JD Martinez to rebound in 2021 from his dreadful 2020? That OPS drop off from .939 to .680 and the power evaporation is pretty brutal, but I would hope he still has a lot left in the tank, right?

Paul Sporer

1:37

Yeah I think many will see it as the beginning of the end but I'm more inclined to find it as a buying opportunity. He almost certainly won't go back to peak, but he'll be better in 2021

Guest

1:37

I had been fading Nola thinking that Campusano might be the next Alejandro Kirk, but now he seems more like he might be the next Matt Bush -- do you have a take on the Padres catcher situation and do you think Nola will play in the infield for them in 2021 after he didn't do so in 2020?

Paul Sporer

1:38

I'm a big Austin Nola fan so I think even if someone did snag some of the catcher timeshare, then he'd bounce around the field and still play regularly. Plus, I'm fully confident the NL will have the DH again

Riley

1:39

What’s your thoughts on Leody Taveras for 2021?

Paul Sporer

1:41

Ooh, I'm glad you asked. I'm buying! First off, he's priced to buy in the mid-200s and I think he's a strong speed option (20+ SB) while not being a 0 in the power category (7-10 in a full season). The AVG will depend on how much he can shave that 32% K rate down, but I'll take the speed and figure out the AVG piece w/the rest of my lineup

trades!

1:41

Paul - I traded my Albies and Matt Olson for Luis Robert and Freddie Freeman in a dynasty league. Am I insane? 1-10 how much do you like the trade (10 is best)?

Paul Sporer

1:43

Assuming it's all the same contract-wise, I'd say it definitely works. I'd say somewhere in the 6-7 range, not bc it's bad at all, but more so bc the pairs aren't TOO different. I like the guys you gave, but you certainly got studs, too

Michael

1:43

Cleveland can't seem to get a break on OFers. Any hope for Luplow, Mercado, Daniel Johnson as fantasy relevant?

Paul Sporer

1:44

I was in on Mercado this year and that obviously flopped big time, but I'm not giving up hope. I still see a solid power/speed bat who should play bc he has solid defense and they don't have any options

David

1:44

What player/team combinations would be a negative for their production if they sign there this offseason?

Paul Sporer

1:47

It really only matters on the extreme outliers - pitchers going to Coors; hitters going to SF or OAK or a speedster going to a team that just doesn't let their guys run.

Vottoman Empire

1:47

How do you feel about Marcell Ozuna as a 3/4 turn guy in 15 team leagues, with his uncertain destination and unclear SB contributions?

Paul Sporer

1:49

While I've always liked Ozuna, I'm not buying him in '21 at a peak price. I think we shouldn't expect anything SB-wise as the 12 was a clear anomaly and the nagging shoulder does linger as a concern should it flare up again. I just don't think it's best to buy high, particularly on guys going into their age-30 seasons

1:49

Best bet to repeat or improve on their 2020 performance: Carrasco or Lynn?

Paul Sporer

1:49

I'm really in on the Lynnaissance

Jay D

1:50

Who do you like better over the next 3 years: Mitch Keller or Jose Urquidy?

Paul Sporer

1:50

I'm a lowkey Urquidy guy. Stupid COVID wrecked his season, but I think he's going to be a really solid option for the next few years

Vottoman Empire

1:54

Given Kyle Lewis' wide range of AVG outcomes, is there an ADP range where you're shaky on him and range where you'd consider him must-grab?

Paul Sporer

1:56

If he pushed north of 75 regularly, I'd probably back away, but the 90-110 range where's spent most of the offseason so far works for me

Curtis

1:56

Which current NL hitter benefits most from the continuation of the NL DH?

Paul Sporer

1:56

Seth Beer, otherwise he might have to retire lol

Bob Villar

1:56

Is Machado ($27) too much, enough, too little for Yordan Alvarez ($7) in an OBP-base dynasty?

Paul Sporer

1:57

It's probably enough. I'm reluctant to buy a DH-only with two busted knees, though

Curtis

1:57

What is the most consecutive years you've ended up drafting the same player - any or all leagues you've been in? Who was it?

Paul Sporer

1:57

This is a fantastic question, but I really haven't kept that detailed of records to know. Joe Musgrove is gunning for the title, though

PhillyBlunt

1:57

What's your take on Spencer Howard? I'm worried about the shoulder, the mysterious loss of velocity, and the inconsistent command. But how worried should I be?

Paul Sporer

1:59

A little concerned for sure, but I'd just monitor him in Spring Training and go from there. The issues are built into his pricing so if you like him, you can still buy in

Curtis

1:59

Did you ever go into a draft telling yourself to not acquire a certain player only to end up with him as a super late bargain or something like that? If so, who was the player?

Paul Sporer

1:59

Definitely have, but can't remember. You're exposing how shitty my memory is, Curtis!

Rich

1:59

In an 10-team OBP league, which six would you keep: Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Jose Ramirez, Jose Abreu, Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber.

Paul Sporer

1:59

Turner, Soto, Ramirez, Harper, Cole, Bieber for me -- great group!

Michael

1:59

How are you projecting Frankie Montas for 2021? I am having trouble deciding if he is a near ace vs the mediocre SP of 2020? Thanks.

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