JotCast | Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat

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Paul Sporer

2:26

Harrison, I just don't have any confidence in Brinson

Biggy

2:26

Rafael Montero gain or lose value in Seattle?

Paul Sporer

2:26

I think SEA is further along in their rebuild than TEX so I'd say up a bit

Kate

2:26

ZiPS and Steamer both seem to like Trevor Rogers. Does he get a crack at a rotation spot this year and can he make it work without a real breaking ball?

Paul Sporer

2:29

I actually wrote him up in the HQ Forecaster and came away with some deep league intrigue. The FB/CH are solid and I think the SL is workable. He throws it 21% of the time and while the results weren't great, I don't think it's a total lost cause. I lean w/the projections, I've got a little star by him on my deep league draft sheets

Anonymous

2:29

Bo Bichette O-Swing% has me trembling for keepers. Those types don't age well at all

Paul Sporer

2:35

I'm not overly concerned about it or thinking that the 46% in '20 is just who he is now. Even still, he trends well above league avg in O-Contact% (contact on pitches out of the zone) so it's not like he's just flailing at out of zone pitches and looking completely lost. It's a metric to pay attention to, but hitting x-threshold on O-Swing% doesn't automatically signal trouble

Kate

2:36

How risky is Arozarena as this point? Obviously a crazy small sample at the ML level and not the elite prospect pedigree, but some of the skills he's displayed (i.e. how hard he hits the ball, sprint speed) seem hard to fake.

Paul Sporer

2:39

There's definitely some risk given his ADP (~55-60 right now) because that means he HAS to perform, but there is some strong skill support underneath what he did in the season and playoffs.

Bob

2:40

Know you haven’t got to the OF deep dive, but how about a quick taste? Where are you on Lourdes vs Teoscar? Different for point’s leagues?

Paul Sporer

2:41

I prefer Gurriel to Hernandez. I'm not out on Hernandez, but I'm not sure we saw enough to think his '20 was some major breakthrough as opposed to his standard run-hot that would've eventually cooled over 6 months.

bobsyouruncle

2:42

Yandy Diaz's plate discipline shows his sweet spot rate was down nearly 10% in 2020. With it being such a small sample size, and his plate discipline numbers resemble Alex Bregman, can he provide value if he returns to 2019 levels? Or does his inability to remain healthy sap all the upside?

Paul Sporer

2:43

He just doesn't lift the ball enough to deliver consistent power in aiddition to a lack of full-time PA. I have a hard time getting super excited about him

Anonymous

2:43

Difference between Eloy and Vlad?

Paul Sporer

2:44

Eloy has been good in the majors

Matt W.

2:45

Yesterday's podcast you were writing off some hitters as declining while others it is a just 2 month blip. Is it possible not having access to a video room during the game due to Covid/ Astros cheating that is what hurt some of these hitters.

Paul Sporer

2:47

Yeah we go case by case. I'm not hand waving everyone nor am I panicked fully off 2 bad months, I just have to decide based on the player in question. I certainly think the video room thing is a legit reason and hopefully those who missed it can find a way to adjust. I don't put a whole lot into the Astros especially bc the bulk of it was in '17 and so a bad '20 after good '18-'19 takes a lot of steam out of it just being the trash cans

Duchess

2:48

Am I crazy for thinking that Dane Dunning and Patrick Corbin are actually not that far apart as pitchers, and that at this point Dunning probably has more trade value?

Paul Sporer

2:49

In terms of value or approach? Dunning doesn't quite do the slider-slider-slider approach that Corbin does, but bottom lines could wind up pretty close. I still prefer Corbin, but I don't think they will be all that far apart in my rankings

Guest

2:51

Right now Jake Bauers is listed as the starting 1B for Cleveland on Roster Resource. Do you see that actually happening, and if so, any fantasy relevance there in deep leagues?

Kate

2:51

Does Cleveland give Josh Naylor or Daniel Johnson 500+ PAs this year?

Paul Sporer

2:56

Y'all may recall that I was a Jake Bauers guy a couple years ago and while he is still just 25 yrs old, I'm not sure they're going to give him a full time job off rip. I think Naylor will get some real 1B burn and they'll bring in an OF. Johnson/Luplow could be a sharp platoon in one of the corners

Mike

2:56

Do you think Corbin Burnes will be able to maintain some of last year's excellent ratios over a more full workload in 2021?

Paul Sporer

2:58

Oh I think he can hold a lot of the gains. His '19 was comical. He certainly played a role, but there was some absurd bad luck w/that HR rate. While it's only 60 IP, he made some substantial changes that fueled his great season. While I'm not tabbing him for a low-2.00s ERA in a full season, I like him as a strong #2 option

Biggy

2:58

Love your eval on JDM. Any hope for a similar outcome for KB?

Paul Sporer

3:00

Thanks! I will be looking at KB and Baez in a coming part of the Flops series. I haven't done that deep dive on KB yet, though, so I don't know if I'm as confident in him as JDM

Kate

3:00

What's a realistic peak stat line for Hoerner look like? 15/15 with a .340ish OBP?

Paul Sporer

3:03

Does he have that kind of pop? I feel more like 8-10 HR w/15+ SB as a full season line

bobsyouruncle

3:03

Jonathan Hernandez is my sleeper closer for the rangers, what type of saves should we expect if he is given the job from the beginning?

Paul Sporer

3:09

I like Hernandez, too (and Joely Rodriguez, tbh... they should trade Leclerc!), but I just don't think he gets it from day 1 bc of Leclerc. That said, if things changed and it was J-Her from the jump, I could see 25 saves

Ryan

3:12

Joey Gallo, have we seen his best year already? Curious your forecast going forward.

Paul Sporer

3:14

I mean, I see more 40 HR seasons but the '19 AVG was a fraud in my opinion: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/any-hope-for-these-2020-flops-part-2/

OK y'all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!

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