JotCast | PHR Chat With Gavin Lee: 10/05/17

PHR Chat With Gavin Lee: 10/05/17

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Gavin Lee

7:03

Or are we just talking about guys still outside the league?

Tre

7:03

Outside

Gavin Lee

7:04

Hmm.

7:05

Well, it probably has to be Miro Heiskanen for me, but I'll list some other top top guys on my list.

7:07

Cody Glass, Jordan Kyrou, Sam Steel, Eeli Tolvanen, Luke Kunin, Jordan Greenway, Lias Andersson

I'd have to really go through, but I think all of those listed are NHL impact players.

Connor

7:07

Is Bjork good enough to be a top line forward then? I’ve heard good things, but is he ready for that role?

Gavin Lee

7:07

I love his game. There is going to be a transition, but he played an NHL game in college.

Without a ton of talent up front around him.

7:08

And, I think I could play with Bergeron and Marchand.

Connor

7:08

After seeing Eichel get 10 M a year, after being drafted 2 years ago, and recognizing that doesn’t happen in any other major sport, surely we are headed for a lockout in the next round of negotiations right?

Gavin Lee

7:08

I don't think it will be about that really though. The escrow debate is way bigger.

7:09

But yes, I think there may be a work stoppage.

Connor

7:09

Does Boston claim Pickard? He has to be better than Khudobin.

Gavin Lee

7:11

I'm serious when I say nearly half the league should claim him.

But I'm clearly higher than the Vegas staff on his upside.

Peter

7:13

Do the Griffins repeat?

Gavin Lee

7:13

I'd say no, because when Detroit sells they'll rob them blind right as the playoffs start.

But, the AHL has so many variables that it's tough to say.

They're good right now.

Connor

7:13

How can the owners not take issue with guys getting paid that soon? The MLB guys don’t even have arbitration yet and the NBA guys are locked in cheap for 4 years.

Gavin Lee

7:14

I don't know a ton about the NBA draft, but do they get huge signing bonuses like MLB and NFL?

That's the difference between the sports. NHL players are kept to strict ELCs, so they're demanding more right away in their long-term deals.

Peter

7:14

Who does Detroit even have to sell?

Gavin Lee

7:16

If they want to fully commit....Green (NTC), Tatar, Nyquist (NTC), Sheahan, Athanasiou, Dekeyser (NTC), Mrazek, Howard (NTC)

They won't be huge names, but they'll all be out the door if they want to move them.

Connor

7:16

NBA guys get locked into a 4 year contract scaled to a small % of the cap based on draft order. Second round picks are different, but they don’t even all end up with fully guaranteed contracts so that doesn’t really matter for our purpose right now.

7:17

I believe the top picks end up with about 7 MM a year at the start, or at least before the cap spike, haven’t checked the recent number, but it’s like 7% or the cap or soemthing. And they only have to carry 12 players, and a couple make the minimum so 7% is nothing, considering the soft cap.

Gavin Lee

7:18

But so there you go. The top picks in hockey make less than $1MM unless they hit performance bonuses.

The problem is with the GMs at this point. McDavid and Eichel had no leverage if they wanted to go slow with their contracts.

They just knew it would kill them in the media.

7:19

It's not really happening to anyone outside of the very top guys.

7:20

Even Pastrnak, who had such a breakout got less than $7MM

Connor

7:21

Yeah my point is that the rookie contracts in the NBA are chump change. The 1st overall pick makes 1/6 of what Russell Westbrook will make over that 4 year same period. McDavid makes just as much as Kane does 2 seasons into his career.

Gavin Lee

7:21

Only kind of though right.

7:22

It gets evened out, but really the Oilers are paying less for the first four than the last four which are UFA years.

During those years he's earning a max contract, just like Kane is for the ones he's in right now ($13.8MM salary)

Then the last few years of his deal start to drop as he ages.

7:23

So that he gets $6.9MM in his age-33 and 34 seasons.

When he won't be in his prime.

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