JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 10/8/25

PHR Live Chat: 10/8/25

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Josh Erickson

1:42

Hi, all. Happy hockey season! I'll start answering questions at the top of the hour.

1:49

Feel free to start putting them in the queue, though.

2:00

Alright, let's get going!

Quinton87

2:00

What will the return for Rasmus Andersson look like? To Dallas Bischel and a first?

Josh Erickson

2:02

The Flames are only getting that kind of return if there's an extension agreed to between Andersson in the Stars. Bichsel still has rather clear top-four ceiling and is only three years out from being a first-round pick. His trade value is probably a bit higher than most are thinking. If Andersson is a rental, there's no scenario in which he's included in the deal.

A first might be feasible, but Dallas only has one of them in the next three years. If the defense shows up and shows out early on, I would expect them to cool off on their pursuit of Andersson and retain the 2027 pick to help fuel a quickly dwindling prospect pool.

BUFFALO Bagwell

2:02

How does Ellis fit into the depth they have? How long is UPL out? What does that mean about his shot at NHL minutes? How do the Blues recover after losing the only competent callup option they had?

Josh Erickson

2:05

Georgiev really struggled in the preseason. Right now, he's probably fifth on the depth chart behind Luukkonen, Lyon, Ellis, and Levi. I'm surprised he didn't opt for a mutual contract termination, honestly.

As for Ellis, I'll be curious to see what kind of workload he gets until Luukkonen is ready to return. UPL should only be out for a couple of weeks. It would not surprise me to see Ellis get a good chunk of starts to open the season. The Sabres said he's someone they've had their eye on for a while. If he does well, it's not out of the realm of possibility that the Sabres carry three goalies when Luukkonen returns or even trades or waives Alex Lyon as well.

Regarding the Blues, they just signed and waived Georgi Romanov. He should clear easily. He's a downgrade from Ellis at the No. 3 slot but still a competent third-stringer.

Mike

2:06

kyle connor contract grade

Josh Erickson

2:08

B+, maybe even A-. Yes, it's a little steep when considering the Marner/Rantanen comparables from earlier this summer. Yes, there's more concern about how he'll age compared to those guys as well. It's not as if the Jets had much of a choice here, though. He's money in the bank for 40 goals at this point, and Winnipeg has a history of squeezing the most value possible out of their top players until they drop (see: Wheeler, Blake) (ignore: Ehlers, Nikolaj)

But would you say Kyle Connor is worth 70% of Kirill Kaprizov? That's the new market-setter. I would. It's something they don't have to worry about. They have other core pieces (Scheifele, Hellebuyck) signed long-term at attractive numbers. They had the flexibility to do a bit of an overpay here, and they used it wisely.

Blue Jackets GM

2:09

What is the latest on Chinakhov? Heard he's a healthy scratch. Is he a trade candidate again?

Josh Erickson

2:11

I don't think Chinakhov was ever off the market. While the report was that he evidently worked things out with Dean Evason, I'm not sure the trade request was ever formally rescinded. If it were, you'd have to think it's been softly brought up to Don Waddell again to keep working the phones.

The longer the situation drags on, the less value Columbus is going to get. I see no use in keeping him in the press box. Trade him or tell the coach to play him.

NSH Preds

2:11

What are the chances Blankenburg gets a regular NHL job in the lineup?

Josh Erickson

2:13

Slim. He's a righty, and as things stand, there's less maneuverability for him to slot in on the right than on the left. It appears Roman Josi's move to his offside is semi-permanent. As such, there are more spots "up for grabs" on the left, especially in the early going with Nic Hague on IR. On the right, Blankenburg now has Josi, Perbix, and Barron ahead of him. He's 27. A serviceable depth piece, but not sure it serves Nashville to put him in ahead of either Perbix, who they just dumped resources into in free agency, or Barron, who still has room to grow, unless they really struggle.

He'll be an injury replacement, and a fine one at that.

Joe

2:15

What coach should be worried about losing their job if their team doesn’t get off to a good start?

Josh Erickson

2:17

I'm looking at Jim Hiller in Los Angeles. There are no coaches aside from Lindy Ruff in the final year of their contract, and there's no way the Sabres don't let him go out on his own terms. So, we're stuck looking at the likely crop of coaches who are signed through 2026-27.

Hiller's part of that group, and he's got the worst mix of factors for job security. There's pressure for success, particularly in Kopitar's final season, and the general manager who hired him is gone. With Ken Holland being so active in free agency for L.A. this summer, it would make sense that the coach takes the fall before the players do if things start slow.

Bruins

2:17

How will the Bruins be this year?

Josh Erickson

2:18

Projection models are pretty pessimistic about them. I think there are reasons for hope. I still think the likeliest outcome is in the .500 range, but a healthy H. Lindholm/McAvoy and a rebound year from Swayman can make up for a lot of standings points.

JohnJacobJingleHimmerSchmidt

2:19

Did Alexander Holtz end up with a contract that was less than his RFA qualifying offer?

Josh Erickson

2:22

Depends on how you look at it. Holtz's qualifying offer was a two-way deal. So while the AAV he signed for ($839,725) is lower than his qualifying offer ($874,125), he's still entitled to all of that money if he ends up in the AHL. If he had taken his qualifying offer, his salary would have been closer to $100K in the minors. He also signed a two-year deal, so there's $1.68MM of guaranteed money in this for him compared to a worst-case scenario of the low six figures if he signed a one-year QO and spent this year in the minors.

Joel S

2:23

How big of a role do you see Parekh having this year? Do you think his defensive play will hold up at the NHL level?

Josh Erickson

2:27

He should have a sizable one, but I'm not sure it'll end up being that way. This morning's line rushes make it seem like he's a healthy scratch for opening night. I'm confused as to why both Jake Bean and Joel Hanley need to be in the lineup over him, especially when MacKenzie Weegar can shift over to the left without a problem.

That said, I would guess they start him with a short leash and gradually loosen it, similar to what the Sharks did with Will Smith last season (and looks like they'll do so again with Sam Dickinson and Michael Misa). There are going to be growing pains, he's a 19-year-old defenseman at the game's highest level. Long-term, I'm not worried. He's such a help for possession that his individual defensive skillset doesn't matter a ton.

Still a little confused on the LTIR changes

2:28

I understand like 85% of the new rules, but some parts of still befuddling. Do you have a great comprehensive but simple explainer you can point me to? Maybe PHR can put out a video explainer?

Josh Erickson

2:32

I'll do you one better and give a brief primer here, since I think it's useful for everyone.

The mechanisms of how regular-season LTIR works have not changed. You still set your pool by getting as close to the cap as possible before making the LTIR placement, thereby giving yourself an amount of relief equivalent to the player's cap hit minus the cap space available at the time of the placement.

What's changed is how much cap space you can get. If the player is not declared to be out for the season, the relief you get per LTIR-bound player is equivalent to the previous season's average salary. This year, that's $3.82MM.

Let's take the Panthers. They started the year with Barkov, Nosek, and Tkachuk on LTIR. Nosek only makes $775K, so that's all they're getting from him. The relief for Barkov and Tkachuk is now capped at $3.82MM per player, so $7.64MM in total for those two. That means Florida's LTIR pool could be as large as ~$8.4MM if they had a perfect capture. They didn't, although they were pretty close

2:34

Season-ending LTIR allows you to bypass the $3.82MM limit and unlock potential relief that's equivalent to the player's full cap hit if they're making more than that. That's what the Golden Knights did with Alex Pietrangelo. Doing so makes him ineligible for the playoffs. It's not something Vegas can decide to do arbitrarily, either. Pietrangelo, the league, and the NHLPA all needed to sign off on his season-ending LTIR placement.

draft

2:35

What F prospects might pass Verhoeff as the #2 player by the end of the season ?

Josh Erickson

2:38

The biggest contenders are Ryan Roobroeck and Ivar Stenberg. I would lean toward the latter. He had almost two points per game in the Swedish junior circuit in his DY-1. He already has five points in nine SHL games this season after only posting three in 25 last year for Frölunda. Size isn't a concern (6'0"/181), although he's a winger and Roobroeck is a center. With a winger in McKenna going at the top of the class, it's a little hard to see another winger going 2nd. That hasn't happened since Patrick Kane and James van Riemsdyk going 1/2 in 2007.

waivers

2:38

At what point does the 2025-26 league standings determine the order of waiver claims ?

Josh Erickson

2:39

Great question. Until Nov. 1, it's still based on last season's results. Beginning with Nov. 1, priority is based on lowest points percentage this season.

ljfranker

2:40

How do the Blues deal with the Sundqvist injury? Who ends up playing RW3. Joseph is a stretch for good opportunities. Is Suter 2C or 3C and what does that mean for Neighbours and the other winger on the third line. Is Bjugstad an option at RW3 or does he fit better on 4C with his 6'6 linemate in Toropchenko and Walker who acts like he's 6'6? Is an acquisition on the horizon?

Josh Erickson

2:41

Based on today's rushes, it looks like it is indeed Mathieu Joseph slotting into that third-line RW role. Pius Suter was his center with Neighbours on the left side.

The Blues only forecasted Sundqvist to miss about a week. Considering they already had a bit of a forward logjam, I can't imagine they're even considering making an external addition based on his injury.

Stay or go; Palat or Dougie?

2:43

It seems like the conversation has fully shifted to moving Dougie Hamilton and not Ondrej Palat for the Devils to get under the cap. Do you get any sense that the Devils conceded that it might be too challenging to trade Palat and have moved to really focusing on trading Dougie? Part Two, any chance that Dougie can be the centerpiece of a trade for Robo (with maybe Mercer and some picks)?

Josh Erickson

2:48

I'll say this – I've heard far more from Devils fans on this topic than from anyone actually connected to the organization.

It makes more sense from a cap management perspective to dump Palat, sure. From a roster management one, pursuing a potentially net-positive return for Hamilton makes way more sense, particularly when there's two blue-chip RD prospects in Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey waiting for more minutes. There's far less internal competition for minutes at forward, so subtracting Palat would have a larger ripple effect unless he continues to dip below replacement level.

Dallas still isn't anywhere close to making a call on trading Jason Robertson, but if they did, that's the kind of offer that would make sense – in a no-cap world. The Stars can't take on that kind of money, and the Devils can't afford to retain on Hamilton unless it's a very small amount.

Hagens

2:48

Despite having a slightly disappointing freshman season at BC (point per game) , don't you think Hagens could have likely made the weak Bruins forward group ? Why do you think he went back to BC ?

Josh Erickson

2:49

Hagens needs to be an offensive needle-mover for the Bruins long-term. Thrusting him into an environment without a ton of support on his wings, unless he's all the way up with Pastrnak, makes no sense when he can take another year to focus purely on development in college now that he knows the ropes of the NCAA level.

DDub30

2:51

Do you think the Islanders move a center ( JG Pageau ) and create a spot for Ritchie and where would the likely landing spot be ?

Josh Erickson

2:52

Not unless they have to. There was a quote from Patrick Roy during the preseason that basically said they weren't going to box Cal Ritchie out just because they have too many centers. I take that to mean that someone's able to/willing to shift to the wing, whether that's Barzal, Pageau, Ritchie himself, or someone else.

2:53

I will say there isn't a great press-box candidate, though. All of the Islanders' 12 forwards are in pretty much every NHL lineup. They may not have a ton of top-end talent but they're bleeding bottom-nine depth. It may make sense to trade someone if Ritchie makes his way in just to avoid tanking their value by scratching them for long periods, but too much depth is a good problem to have.

Mammoth13

2:54

How much will it be to sign Cooley?

Josh Erickson

2:55

A month ago, I would've thought that $9.6MM number on a max-term deal would have done it. We're really starting to see the Kaprizov effect on the market come quite quickly. He's sniffing $10MM, for sure. Not sure how much higher than that Utah, or anyone, should be willing to go. I think it makes sense for both parties to circle back on talks midseason once there's a larger sample size to work with.

Ian

2:57

Do you see Kyle Connor being the guide for the Avs and Necas?

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