JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 3/5/25

PHR Live Chat: 3/5/25

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Josh Erickson

1:31

Hello all! I'll start answering questions in 30 minutes. I'm opening the queue later than normal as we've had so many advance questions the last few weeks – I'm barely getting to anyone who submits a message after the chat starts. Great to see these are drawing so much interest, and I'm glad they're proving of benefit to everyone!

1:59

Alright, let's go. For those keeping track at home, that will now be five years without a first-round pick for the Lightning. They last selected in that round when they picked Isaac Howard 31st overall in 2022. They don't have this year's first because they traded it to the Predators in the Tanner Jeannot deal.

2:01

For those in here and not on the site, the full deal from LeBrun:

To Tampa Bay: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Yanni Gourde, 2026 5th
To Seattle: Mikey Eyssimont, 2026 1st, 2027 1st, 2025 2nd (TOR)

Seattle has to retain a significant portion on both to get this done. I'll be interested to see if it's the full 50 on both – if so, Tampa could reasonably add another D in the $1-2MM range or a backup G.

John

2:01

Jakob Chychrun extension next for the capitals?

Josh Erickson

2:02

Teams don't have a propensity for holding extension talks post-deadline and during the playoffs, but since Washington basically has the division on lock, I wonder if they'll devote a lot of energy there. I get the sense there's strong mutual interest. Won't come before deadline day, too many moving parts, and their FO will be tied up in talks. I would guess something like 7x7.75 for Chychrun.

Anthony

2:02

Hey Josh. What do you think the jets will do at the deadline

Josh Erickson

2:05

They've clearly identified their needs as another middle-six C option and a top-four option on the blue line. With over $12.4MM in deadline space, there's no reason to think they won't be able to land both if they're willing to pay some steep prices on the trade market this year. I think Brock Nelson is probably their first choice for the former. They'll check in on Ryan Donato too. LD is more of a need than RD, so expect they'll engage on Dumoulin/Ferraro/Soucy

2:06

Updated question now that the trade is apparently going through: your thoughts on the Kraken sending Gourde and Bjorkstrand to Tampa for a package centered around two first round picks?

Josh Erickson

2:08

That's the Brandon Hagel special. I don't think anyone will complain about that haul, especially with where the first-rounders they gave up to CHI have fallen. Bjorkstrand having a year left on his deal, presumably with retention, is some truly nasty work. Love that pickup for them. Gourde is coming off surgery but is a known commodity. Always eye-popping to give up two 1sts in a deal, but they're getting two bonafide top-nine pieces back. This is a spectacular move for the Bolts. They shouldn't have much trouble negotiating an extension for Gourde either since his market value is lower now.

2:09

And Seattle, a team who I believe has drafted quite well, adds a pair of firsts to a prospect pool that's already top 10 in the league. Love it for both sides.

LGD

2:10

Am I crazy for not wanting the Devils to make a big splash (talking Rantanen big)? Our D and goalies are playing great and we’ve been generating plenty of chances. Just feels like they’re due to start converting on those chances. GMTF never seems to panics but worries other teams will try to take advantage. Also, any chance we see Gritsyuk this year? Thanks!

Josh Erickson

2:12

I'm largely with you. Possession numbers strong across the board. But if Rantanen is available with an extension, you make that trade 10/10 times as long as the acquisition cost isn't completely crippling.

2:13

He's a known talent. Developing prospects, while the Devils have a lot of great ones, are not. In that vein, you won't be seeing Gritsyuk this year. While he's on an expiring deal, KHL contracts no longer expire at the immediate conclusion of their teams' season. I believe it's now May 1, although not sure, that players on expiring KHL contracts can sign elsewhere.

2:14

They'll try and get him over for 2025-26, though.

DStars

2:14

Who's the biggest threat to Winnipeg in the west?

Josh Erickson

2:17

The usual suspects. Dallas' offense is terrifying, but the D remains questionable depending on Heiskanen's return timeline. The Golden Knights are trending up for me. Their possession game has improved quite a bit in recent weeks after a sluggish start to the season. Even if they don't make a notable add this week like GM Kelly McCrimmon said would likely be the case, they'd be my favorite to meet Winnipeg in the Conference Finals. I think the Jets, assuming they add the two aforementioned pieces, can handle Dallas in a seven-game series if Heiskanen isn't 100%. 4 Nations was some good retribution for Hellebuyck after past playoff failures. He'll be locked in.

2:18

With the way the Oilers are free-falling, not sure I'd even pick them to win a round.

Duane

2:18

Hello. Do the Wild make a dollar for dollar trade yet? Could a defensemen like Merrill get moved?

Josh Erickson

2:20

I'm not sure there's anything else in the cards. I liked the Nyquist pickup, but I think even trying to get either Brock (Boeser/Nelson) with a third team involved to bring total retention down to 75% will be too difficult if they're expecting Kaprizov to return. They'll already have to send a guy down to activate him from LTIR when he's ready.

2:21

They're absolutely set with Rossi and JEEK as a 1-2 punch down the middle, and Nyquist is impactful. Not sure how much urgency there is to do anything else.

Free Sheldon Keefe

2:21

Ooof, tough week to be Devils fan. Trying to understand how the Devils retaining Frederic for LaChance came to be. Jack Hughes injury aside, the Devils still seem to be buyers so it would seem like giving up cap space is not prudent. Could it be that LaChance has been on his radar and when he heard Edmonton needed more retention he swooped in. Just trying to understand the dissonance between being in buyers mode and surrendering cap space.

Josh Erickson

2:24

I don't see it as a negative. Lachance has NHL upside, and that $575K retention on Frederic can easily be offset by them incorporating a third team into any acquisition they're trying to make. There are other corresponding transactions they can easily make (demoting Nemec, waiving Dowling) that are far more impactful cap-wise than the $575K Frederic retention.

Tom

2:25

Will the Flyers trade Laughton? Why do they keep Kolosov up as 3rd goalie?

Josh Erickson

2:27

While teams may have initially balked at the asking price for Laughton and Ristolainen, I imagine they're going to re-engage over the next 48 hours with how steep the acquisition cost is climbing in these other moves. I think this Gourde/Bjorkstrand return helps the Flyers' odds of landing what they want for Laughton (1st+other asset). They're keeping Kolosov up to keep him happy, but I don't get it for a guy who's underwhelmed in his NHL minutes so far. He's still young, there's potential, but if that's what you're banking on, gotta play him. Not like they're in a playoff chase anymore.

mike124

2:28

If winnipeg wants to trade for a player that's gonna cost a 1st or equivalent, what has more value Colby Barlow or jets 2025 first?

Josh Erickson

2:30

That's a toughie. My first inclination is Barlow, since Winnipeg's pick is almost guaranteed to be 27th or later at this stage. But his stock is falling rapidly amid a tough final season in juniors. I'd say it's pretty much a tossup.

Schenn

2:30

Will any team meet the asking price for him? Blues seem to have the same chance at the playoffs (very little) with or without him despite this decent run. It would be a typical Armstrong type of move to do if he can get what he wants. Also, if they wait until offseason what happens to that trade price?

Josh Erickson

2:32

Chatter is they want two first-rounders. How much higher is his trade value than Gourde? It's not a Bjorkstrand-sized gap. As a result of today's move, I don't think they're landing that. He'll stay.

Notably, if they wait until after July 1, his full NTC drops to a 15-team no-trade list. Something to monitor.

John

2:32

Which tier of prospects will the capitals deal from? Is Miroshnichenko staying put?

Josh Erickson

2:34

Yeah. They've said themselves they're not in the market for a huge swing that might disrupt team chemistry. A middle-six wing is the target, and one as a rental won't command anything close to Miroshnichenko. I imagine they end up parting ways with a second-round pick straight up to get a Gus Nyquist type, or someone like Vinny Iorio or Eriks Mateiko instead if they want to keep their picks.

Medic Mike

2:37

How’s do you see the Blackhawks goalie situation playing out now with Knight?

Josh Erickson

2:38

Not sure Mrázek gets offloaded in-season, but he'll likely be gone over the summer once they have a retention slot again. Teams will be more goalie-needy over the summer with what looks like a pretty weak UFA class following the recent run of extensions for Thompson/Lindgren/Lankinen etc.

2:39

Don't know enough about Brossoit's injury situation to really issue a proclamation there, but the amount of setbacks for a guy who already has a history of knee issues seriously makes me wonder if he'll play again.

However they go about it, Knight/Soderblom is the tandem moving forward.

DDub30

2:40

Do you think Brock Nelson has played his last game for the Islanders ?

Josh Erickson

2:40

I do, and Nelson does as well if his emotional postgame interview last night is any indication. In terms of potential destinations, think of any buyer with cap space as a fit.

Blues

2:42

What would it take for the Blues to get Cozens from Buffalo?

Josh Erickson

2:44

I'd wonder about something involving Zack Bolduc and an additional asset. Maybe a 3rd or 4th rounder? Not sure how large the difference in trade value is between the two. Bolduc's having a nice year.

Phil

2:44

Thanks for doing these! If you were Kevyn Adams who would you trade and who do you think the Sabres will end up trading?

Josh Erickson

2:48

If I was Kevyn Adams, I'd probably quit my job. But if I was bound to stay, my top priority would be finding a solution for Mattias Samuelsson. If there's any trade interest, I'm probably taking it. If not, I'd hedge my bets on a buyout this summer. I'm trying to find new homes for some of the depth D like Clifton and Jokiharju, too. After extending Greenway, I'd be more inclined to trade Zucker. I really like the fit, but his cap space could be utilized better on the open market this summer (assuming I can convince some guys to sign under a new FO regime). I'm not dealing Cozens or Tuch. I simply cannot imagine Cozens is now a career 8.5% shooter. He'll rebound, and I'll take my bets on that.

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