JotCast | PHR Live Chat: 9/11/24

PHR Live Chat: 9/11/24

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Josh Erickson

2:28

He's on the right track, for sure. I don't think he'll ever break out as a potential top-six option, but he has the tools – skating as you mention, plus he's a pretty cerebral playmaker. I think he's an ideal fit lower in the lineup, but he's not that big and plays like his size (5'11", 170 lbs). I do think NHL potential is there, but it's gonna have to be in the right bottom-six environment. Not suited for bang-and-crash play, but he could succeed as a complementary piece on a scoring-oriented third or fourth line.

hypothetical

2:29

Apparently, Chicago didn't want Demidov with the 2nd overall pick. Do you think if they offered it to San Jose for Will Smith and maybe a later draft pick, Mike Grier would have accepted so he could have had the top 2 picks ?

Josh Erickson

2:29

I doubt it. Grier's big on building the right environment. Smith's shown a pretty clear early passion for the market and wanting to be part of the future there. I'd say he's an untouchable.

Wings

2:29

When does Detroit get their RFAs signed? How much? Any risk of offer sheets? Who is their starting goalie? Thanks!

Josh Erickson

2:30

No one has the cap space to price Detroit out, so I don't see an offer-sheet threat. I don't see a scenario in which they don't match. If teams agree with that assessment, no use going through the trouble unless you're just trying to be petty – and that won't go over well.

2:31

Still think both end up as long-term pacts in the $7MM-$8MM range.

2:32

As for the goalie, Cam Talbot is the clear opening night starter in my eyes barring something strange during camp. I know he's the elder statesman, but he was legitimately quality for the Kings last year. 10.7 goals saved above expected in 54 games, per MoneyPuck. Lyon was much closer to average with 2.1 GSAx in 44 GP.

Stars Fan

2:32

Harley still not signed. Should we worry with preseason around the corner? The back end is already thin as it is.

Josh Erickson

2:34

I wouldn't be worried, and I'd still expect to have it finalized before camp. My guess would be a bridge deal in the 3yr/$5MM AAV range to keep some in-season flexibility. Nill was pretty confident last month there wouldn't be a holdout.

Navigating Salary Cap Jumps

2:34

There are a number of players on extremely team-friendly, long-term deals that were signed before the cap went up (Makar, Q. Hughes, J. Hughes). While their teams are benefitting big time from locking them up early, how do you see them navigating re-signing their secondary stars who might command much more in this post-salary cap jump market? (I imagine it varies by team and player.) Drai demolished McDavid's AAV, but that's because Connor's deal expires in two years. I can't see Mitch Marner eclipsing Auston Matthews AAV, but might Luke Hughes exceed Jack? Trying to think of other examples.

Josh Erickson

2:35

On the Hughes front, I don't think LHughes as an all-around player commands more than Jack's $8MM AAV based on pure market value. So there specifically, I'll say no, he doesn't.

2:36

And yeah, I'm really struggling to think of other comparables. Many of them have already been dealt with this summer, or guys aren't far enough along in their development to have a confident enough projection.

Pawtucket

2:36

Who are PTO's that get a contract with their team (or another team)

Josh Erickson

2:39

My picks for guys to land opening-night spots off their PTOs:

Vrána/WSH
Watson/DET
T. Johnson/BOS
Barrie/CGY
Addison/OTT
Erne/NYR
Dermott/EDM
Pacioretty/TOR
Bellemare/COL

frozen504

2:39

Is edmonton the biggest improvement of the offseason?

Josh Erickson

2:41

Not biggest total improvement, no, but I do think they're as well-positioned to win as they've ever been. Chicago is up there for me – certainly not a playoff contender, but their roster now resembles that of an NHL team. That's a pretty big accomplishment, and I'd expect a 20-25 point jump there.

2:42

Other teams I could safely see making 10-15+ point jumps: Utah, Ottawa, Seattle, Buffalo, New Jersey

Medic Mike

2:42

I’ve read a couple articles this week about the Chicago becoming a hot free agent destination in the next couple years. Now I won’t hold you to this, but what names cold you see going the Hawks in the next few years?

Josh Erickson

2:43

I mean hey, I have to imagine they'll be in on Marner if given the chance. Wing depth is the biggest concern as things stand, so I'd imagine those will end up being the marquee signings. I'd wonder if they make a play for Ehlers next summer if that doesn't work out.

2:44

Looking ahead, is it too early to romanticize about a Panarin reunion?

Fabbro

2:44

Do you see Dante Fabbro getting traded given the Del Gaizo and Stastney signings?

Josh Erickson

2:46

I wouldn't do it. That leaves your bottom four as Carrier, Schenn, Lauzon and Stastney. I really don't love that. I'd only move him if they end up not getting all of that Johansen dead cap off the books and they need to shed a salary.

UncleMike1525

2:46

Since everyone seems to prefer the Hawks young players all go to Rockford, Are the Hawks planning any PTO's for another vet D man?

Josh Erickson

2:46

I haven't heard as such. Maybe one, but I still think two of Kaiser, Korchinski, and Phillips will be on the opening night roster.

Kevin C.

2:46

What does a Cam Fowler deal look like for the Ducks? What kind of pick/players can they get?

Josh Erickson

2:47

With the right amount of retention, I'd still imagine they can land a first-round pick plus a significant but non-marquee prospect.

Briere

2:47

What pieces would I get for Farabee? Draft picks? Prospects? Package of both?

Josh Erickson

2:48

He's an interesting case, isn't he? 20-goal, 50-point guy on a decent contract. He's played in all 82 games the past two seasons. A first-rounder straight-up?

Rags Fan

2:48

Likelihood of Othmann or someone else making team out of camp? If Othmann makes the team playing 3rd or 4th line minutes... does that help his development? Or... us Othmann ultimately traded for the win now mindset? And last... what's his value?

2:49

And as always.... thank you for your time and insight!!!

Josh Erickson

2:50

I wouldn't rule Othmann out, but I wouldn't count on him making it, either. I'd give it a 25-30% chance of him making the team. I think the bottom-six is fine as it is to start, so there's not a huge need for him to be a factor early on. If somebody falters, call him up, but I'd like to see some improvement in his defensive game in Hartford if possible.

2:51

I don't think him playing limited minutes compared to expanded NHL usage would harm his development, no. He's a bit of a plug-and-play guy. Right now, I'm not sure trading him makes sense, either. Don't think he's quite the impact piece on his own to make a big splash.

Dub

2:52

Josh: Good afternoon. Of the three, Bennett, Verhaghee, and Eklblad who would be retained? Or do you trade Knight for a pick?

Josh Erickson

2:55

If push comes to shove, I'd move on from Ekblad. I know it's a tough blow emotionally, but he's just had so many injury troubles. I can't imagine any long-term deal aging well.

If I'm picking one of the three to stay, Verhaeghe without a doubt.

Too early to trade Knight. Primed for a rebound year and you never know when age will come for Sir Bob.

2:56

Last couple ones here before the top of the hour.

Cap Space

2:56

How many trades will we see over the next week?

Josh Erickson

2:56

Eh, I'd expect more activity after camps start. I'd set the O/U at 2.5.

gmm8811

2:57