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RosterResource Chat - 12/13/24
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AvatarJason Martinez
2:01
Hello everybody. Jon and I are back from Winter Meetings. It wasn't necessary for us to be in Dallas to update all of the roster moves that happened, but we were able to meet up with our FanGraphs colleagues and had our annual RosterResource meeting. Hopefully, we'll have some more cool RR features added in the near future. Ask us some questions.
Some kinda Mook
2:01
Hendricks is likely to be the primary closer in Boston if healthy, right?
AvatarJon Becker
2:02
My guess is that without any further additions they'll "platoon" Hendriks and Chapman based on matchups, and they'll probably be careful with Hendriks about back-to-back games in the early going anyway. Justin Slaten's another option too.
AvatarJason Martinez
2:03
Yep. I would guess he'd have a chance to be the "primary" closer sometime in May if he looks like the old Liam Hendriks and able to pitch back-to-back days.
Justin
2:03
On Cortes for Williams, I feel like a potential 2.5-3 win pitcher is too much to give up for a reliever. Plus the Yankees also gave the Brewers money and a prospect. Am I off-base here? Thanks!
AvatarJason Martinez
2:05
Remember that Cortes had a flexor strain to end the season and was only added to the playoff roster when they were comfortable that he could pitch in relief. It's possible that he won't pitch at all in 2025, although they probably won't know much until he ramps up in spring. My guess is that the Brewers really like Durbin and also made sure to get some $ back because of Cortes' injury risk.
AvatarJon Becker
2:06
I also think the context matters here, in that Cortes was probably 7th on the SP depth chart for the Yankees so he was expendable for them.
Banjo, for breakfast?
2:06
Thoughts on which Rule 5 guys landed into situations where they might stick?
AvatarJon Becker
2:07
Shane Smith and Evan Reifert come to mind, since both the White Sox and Nationals have wide-open bullpens right now. Was surprised Reifert wasn't picked a little earlier, actually.
Cubbles
2:07
Any traction on Kyle Tucker getting traded? If not the Cubs, what other teams might make a move? NYY seems out after dealing Nestor.
AvatarJason Martinez
2:08
Sounds like it's getting close. If it happens during the chat, I'll be stepping away for 5-10 minutes to update things. Cubs appear to be the main focus right now with Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith part of the deal.
MilledgeReport
2:09
Mets likely to add another SP? Any thoughts on who? Rotation looking a little light at the moment.
AvatarJon Becker
2:10
I think they will, yeah, especially since a six-man is plausible (if not likely) to keep Senga and Holmes healthy and limit their innings a bit. Stearns isn't the type to spend huge on starters despite all of Steve Cohen's money, so I think it would be someone like Pivetta or Buehler.
Baltimoron
2:10
Wtf is Elias doing
AvatarJason Martinez
2:13
Apparently, right-handed power was a priority: move in the fences and sign two right-handed batters (Tyler O'Neill, Gary Sanchez) with plus-plus power. Lineup is very good. Bullpen should be fine. Top priority should be adding a frontline starter, although they don't seem likely to get Burnes back. Maybe they add Manaea or Flaherty. Maybe Walker Buehler.
AvatarJon Becker
2:13
Doesn't sound like they were all that interested in trading for Crochet either; Eflin being the Opening Day starter strikes me as likelier than not.
Nickles
2:14
Once signed, does Roki Sasaki become the most valuable asset in terms of roster construction in baseball given how below market his deal will be?
AvatarJon Becker
2:15
I don't think the most valuable, since he's not going to be any cheaper than all of the other pre-arbitration players doing really well right now. Paul Skenes is immensely underpaid, for example.
Banjo, for breakfast?
2:15
Javier Baez is under contract through 2027. With the Tigers now a contender, what's the absolute earliest you could see them dropping him and eating the rest of the deal? Feel like I never see that happen before the last year of a contract, but...
AvatarJason Martinez
2:18
I think 2026 at the earliest. Not in 2025 since Trey Sweeney, despite him holding his own last season, is still unproven over a full season. Baez gives them insurance at starting SS and, at the least, a platoon player who is above-average at SS/3B/SS. And he's a bounce-back candidate.
AvatarJon Becker
2:19
I also don't think Báez is magically going to be really good again but it's worth noting that the back injury really seemed to affect him.
Ham Fighter
2:19
Am I too optimistic in believing that Caleb Durbin will be competition with Dunn/Monasterio for backup IF and the Brewers will still acquire a starting calibre IF before the offseason is over?
AvatarJon Becker
2:20
I think getting $4.5M or so (per Nightengale) back in the trade is helpful at freeing up a little bit of cash to sign someone, though it's not like you can get anyone great for just $4.5M. Ha-Seong Kim makes a lot of sense for them even though he won't be ready for Opening Day.
Ryan
2:21
Which team that hasn't really made any moves yet surprises you the most?
AvatarJason Martinez
2:22
I'll go with the Nationals. Good young core of position players and starting pitchers and ready to take the next big step. If that's the plan, it hasn't happened yet and not really much buzz surrounding them ready to do something big.
AvatarJon Becker
2:23
They were my pick to have the biggest offseason of the non-playoff teams, and that certainly won't be true with the Giants having signed Adames.
J
2:24
If the Cubs do trade for Tucker, presumably Bellinger gets dealt shortly after. But even then, how do they deal with the outfield logjam? Suzuki is apparently not keen on DHing and they have Alcantara and Caissie waiting in the wings.
AvatarJon Becker
2:24
Suzuki's not keen on DHing but he would just have to, frankly (and they could give Tucker and Happ some days there). I don't think they're going to trade someone else to make room for Alcantara or Caissie, if they're ready it'll work itself out.
Guest
2:25
Do you believe 26 starts is the average outcome for deGrom starts as listed in the Depth Charts after this many years of being hurt?
AvatarJason Martinez
2:28
I have plenty of readers and colleagues who disagree with my philosophy on how to project playing time with the system we have in place. And, in regards to deGrom, it's this: He's fully healthy. He pitched at the end of last season. He makes $40MM. And I have him projected to miss around 6 weeks. Not up to me to predict that he'll have an injury that will keep him out longer than that. The reader can make that judgement.
TW
2:28
Do you think the Rangers will/should move Lowe now that they have Burger?
AvatarJon Becker
2:29
Wouldn't surprise me if they did, but I don't think they should just for the sake of it. Depth is important, especially with huge question marks around the health of Carter and Jung, and García underperforming this year.
Keith
2:30
Thanks guys. How likely the Brewers move Turang to SS if Durbin clicks in spring training?
AvatarJason Martinez
2:32
I heard an interview with either Matt Arnold or Craig Counsell (sorry, don't remember which one) and he stressed that both Ortiz or Turang would be really good at SS. They'd rather not move Turang off of 2B since he just proved that he's one of the best in the game there, but said they were open to it depending on how things shake out. Is Durbin the guy that is gonna shake things up? Not sure he's that guy, but it would be Durbin at 2B, Ortiz at 3B, and Turang at SS if that happened to be the case. Not sure the plan is to go into Spring Training without one more proven option.

By the way, that was my initial projection but I changed my mind and went with a safer one for now ... https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/brewers
Joe
2:33
Is NYY really the only potential taker for Bellinger?
AvatarJon Becker
2:35
Astros and Mariners also are reportedly interested in him, but the latest signs point to the Yankees, especially if/when Tucker to Chicago gets done.
victoria
2:35
paredes + Smith + Wesneski is the final package
AvatarJason Martinez
2:36
"Expected to be" are the words in Jon Heyman's last tweet. Those are not included in the magic words I need before I make the update. But, yeah, seems like it's about to go down.
Banjo, for breakfast?
2:37
At this (admittedly outrageously early) point of the off-season, who's your pick for the veteran player that ends up on an NRI deal who ends up providing the most 2025 WAR for their team?
AvatarJon Becker
2:38
I probably have to pick someone who hasn't even signed yet, since it's going to be the type of player who's holding out for an MLB deal but can't find one. Maybe Nicky Lopez has a randomly good BABIP- and fielding-fueled two-win season?
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