JotCast | RosterResource Chat

RosterResource Chat - 12/20/24

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Jason Martinez

2:01

Welcome to another RosterResource Live Chat! It's been another fun offseason. A lot has happened and still a long ways to go.

Feel free to browse around RosterResource if you need some inspiration for a good question or two. Here's the updated projection for the Houston Astros with their new 1B ... https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros

Thank you for the chat!

2:02

How much is a dollar/war roughly? How overwater (surplus) is Judge's contract? Are there any studies on the highest surplus career players (Jram? Braves players?)

Jon Becker

2:03

We have a Value metric that currently values each win at $8M, though part of our group discussion at the Winter Meetings was about $/WAR probably isn't linear. I believe when spitting out contract numbers ZiPS uses something like $5.5M for the first win per year and then $9M for each win thereafter. No matter how you slice it, Judge has been worth a ton more than he's earned: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aaron-judge/15640/stats?position=OF#...

Hunter

2:03

Walker signing seems to pretty much rule out a Bregman return to Houston, where do you see him ending up? Yankees, Cubs, Tigers?

Jason Martinez

2:06

A lot of great fits but I'd think the Yankees and Blue Jays have to be the most likely teams. Not sure the Cubs want to add more $ and block Matt Shaw. If it's not Shaw to begin the season at 3B, I'd think they get a veteran stopgap who could step into a bench role once Shaw is ready. Tigers are a great fit. But, unless they're keeping their interest very close to the vest, it sure doesn't seem like they're gonna spend big on a free agent. Red Sox could also be a great fit, but I think that would be down the road if he's still available in a month.

Mr Pasta

2:07

Hypothetically, if Toronto has by far the highest offer for Burnes but he’s hoping for SF to increase their offer but they don’t budge, do you think he is more likely to take the Jays’ money or settle for whatever the Giants are offering?

Jon Becker

2:07

Any answer I could give here would be a total guess; every player's going to have his own priorities and $ difference required to take the highest offer even if it's not his preferred landing spot.

wheelhouse

2:09

Ben Rice: projections real or not a major leaguer

Jason Martinez

2:11

I think he can be a solid big league regular. Maybe as soon as 2025 if they let him play every day and hit at the bottom of their lineup. But the question is whether the Yankees want to go into the season with that much uncertainty. A lot of good veteran 1B options right now (Santana, Goldschmidt, Alonso).

Ryanfromtapps

2:11

Thanks for taking the time today and for being so generally available to talk roster construction! The Mariners claimed Raposo (C) from the Blue Jays yesterday and I am curious to get your thoughts on M's catchers. Garver only caught in 25 games last year - they can't expect Cal to shoulder so much of the load again... can they??

Jon Becker

2:12

I haven't seen any indication that they're looking at adding a third catcher (or a second one and bumping Garver back to more of an emergency role), but yeah I don't think Raleigh can realistically catch 80% of the time. Garver was Kirby's personal catcher down the stretch so I'm guessing he sticks with that, and maybe another easier-to-catch arm (Woo?) half the time, to make it 70/30.

Brownpants

2:13

Likeliest 1B path for AZ now that Walker's gone? Re-sign Joc and have him play there sometimes?

Jason Martinez

2:16

Seems like Pavin Smith is the guy. Small sample but he was as good as he's ever been in 2024 (.896 OPS, 9 HR in 158 PAs). They also need to figure out a way to get Jordan Lawlar his at-bats once he's ready. If part of that equation is that he plays some 3B, Eugenio Suarez could possibly move across the diamond and play some 1B.

Thank you for the chat!

2:16

Assuming another elite season, who ultimately goes after Vlad next offseason? Doesn't staying in Toronto make the most sense from a fit and contract standpoint?

Jon Becker

2:17

I agree with you that Toronto makes the most sense, at least right now. If he has the best season of his career in 2025, though, I think a lot more teams are willing to overlook that he's a first baseman and give him $400M+.

Dodgers Blue

2:18

If the Oneil Cruz in CF situation bombs, what moves do you think they make with him? Try in a corner OF spot, move back to the dirt - and if so, back to SS? Or do you feel they are fully committed to this for a full year (plus)?

Jason Martinez

2:20

I think they're 100% in on him being their CF for the next 4 seasons before free agency (or until they trade him). Seemed comfortable out there and his athleticism makes the adjustment easier. Seems like moving him again during the season would not be ideal. And it's not like they have many other options out there.

DET

2:21

Do you think Bregman or Ha-Seong Kim is a better fit in Detroit?

Jon Becker

2:22

Bregman, I think. There's certainly risk in giving him a long deal considering how his walk rate tanked, but he's much more of an impact bat than Kim and that's what the Tigers need right now more than anything.

Jules

2:23

How are you feeling about the Astros offseason?

Jason Martinez

2:25

They have so much more work to do. For now, I think they've done OK. Paredes/Walker can combine for 60 HR. Losing Bregman and Tucker will hurt. Their projected OF is Meyers-McCormick-Taylor Trammell. So they might need to add 2 more OF and another SP.

question man

2:25

how much of your arcane roster knowledge comes from playing OOTP

Jon Becker

2:26

Shockingly, I've never really been able to get into OOTP. I spend too much time learning and thinking about the real stuff going on to maintain a whole other fake league along with it!

Bullock's

2:27

It seems to me that teams do a lot more mix-and-match with their lineups and lot less straight platooning. Similarly, more of cycling everyone through the DH rather than having a single one. So the question: what's your process for marking lineups / positions / platoons / etc, and has it gotten harder?

Jason Martinez

2:29

Yep, it has gotten much more difficult. Obviously, I move things around very often during the season because you can pick up on trends. And during the offseason, I'm only displaying what might be a team's Opening Day lineup. I always try to emphasize how important the playing time projections are in addition to the roster projection. Teams really can have two "bench" players with over 400 PAs and 2-4 "lineup regulars" with under 500 PAs. But I'm always trying to think of better ways for it all to make sense to readers without having to add a lot more explanation.

Thank you for the chat!

2:30

Where does Stroman end up?

Jon Becker

2:32

The Yankees don't *have to* trade him, but I'm sure they'd like to. He'd be another way for the A's to get closer to the $105M magic number to be compliant with revenue sharing, or maybe the Yankees can work out an iffy-contract swap with someone. The Reds may want another starter and might want to get rid of Candelario, for example.

Cubbie Rubby

2:33

Do you think either Cassie or Alcantara become full time players this season?

Jason Martinez

2:35

Not on the Cubs, barring an injury or trade (maybe Suzuki but probably not). They're set with Happ-PCA-Tucker-Suzuki. A trade to another team could make it more likely. Both have good trade value at the moment.

Victoria

2:35

How much money do you think the Ms would be willing to eat in a Castillo trade?

Jon Becker

2:36

Depends a lot on what they'd get in return and how they'd like to facilitate that, IMO. If they can get a real impact bat like Casas back, maybe they're willing to pay closer to half. If it's more a desire just to get rid of the money and buy offense on the FA market, maybe they only pay a few million a year. $22M a year really isn't bad for Castillo considering what FA SP have been getting this offseason, so they wouldn't have to cover much at all to move him.

2:37

If the Twins are moving Royce Lewis to 2B and have to put Brooks Lee somewhere, does that mean Julien is dead in the water?

Jason Martinez

2:40

I currently have Lee at 2B and Lewis at 3B with Julien on the bench (part-time role as 2B/1B/DH) ... https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/twins

Not familiar enough with Lee to know whether the Twins would prefer him at 3B over 2B. He's a SS so I assume he'd be fine at either spot. Not sure why Lewis would move to 2B otherwise. They don't appear to have a MLB-ready 3B prospect and they barely seem to be participating in the offseason. It might just be to give them some other options.

Dodgers Blue

2:41

I thought the A's made the most sense for Yoan Moncada on a 1-year bounce back contract. Now that they signed Urshela - are they out of the picture? Or is it still possible they could sign Yoan to play third and move Urshela to a back up role? If not the A's, do the Marlins now make the most sense for Moncada? And if so, would you see them using him at 2B - or moving Norby there and giving Yoan 3B?

Jon Becker

2:43

I would much rather sign Moncada than Urshela since there's actual upside there, though they still could, I suppose, since Urshela can play a little short and first too. I like the Marlins as a fit for Moncada, I'm guessing they'd try both 2B and 3B out during spring training and decide which alignment they like best.

Kave Dingman

2:43

How do you go about filling out a roster slot when the Opening Day solution is not on the roster yet? For example - Nationals closer is currently Law/Ferrer/Garcia.

Jason Martinez

2:46

It's one of my favorite aspects of the offseason RosterResource pages ... "if we fast-forward to Opening Day with the current roster, this is likely what they'd go with". Some are way more obvious holes and might as well have a "TBD" but that's no fun. Some people just forget that we have months to go and still a lot of free agent and trade possibilities.

Ryan

2:47

What exactly is going on in Arizona, 89 wins last year but radio silence so far this offseason and now they lose one of their better players

Jon Becker

2:48

A good chunk of teams haven't done much of anything this offseason, and I can get never being all that in on bringing Walker back when he ended up signing for 3y/$60M and he's 33. I think they'll, at minimum, trade away a starter, add a reliever or two, and add some bench depth.

John B

2:48

On the Giants, I am curious about the thinking in having McCray in left and Ramos DH. It seems like there are more obvious fits at DH (Flores, Encarnacion) and most people think McCray could use more time at AAA given his strikeout rate. Thanks

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