JotCast | RosterResource Chat

RosterResource Chat - 2/14/25

Jason Martinez

2:02

Welcome to the RosterResource Live Chat! Pitchers and catchers (and many position players) have mostly reported to Spring Training, which means a lot of injury updates and quotes from managers that may or may not tell us something important once we read between the lines.

As a reminder, the RosterResource pages are all updated almost in real-time. Playing time projections take a bit longer but are also updated quickly.

If you're not familiar, here's the Red Sox RosterResource roster/depth chart …

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox

And payroll page ...

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/red-sox

Here we go ...

Bullock's

2:02

Assuming you guys look at page view stats for the various Roster Resource products, are there any of them that you think are under-utilized? Like, you think you've got something cool and you're waiting for the community to figure it out?

Jon Becker

2:03

I love looking at the Breakdowns tab, where we've got 26-man, 40-man and payrolls all there in one view for you to peruse. The first two tabs are a fun way to look at the different ways teams are built, and the Payroll tab has that from a payroll allocation perspective. All the tables are sortable, too!

Brett Baty

2:04

Why don't the Mets just trade me. Angels could use me. What would the angels have to give up to get me? Who else makes sense?

Jason Martinez

2:06

It's crazy how quickly a prospect's value drops once they reach the majors and either struggle or deal with injuries. It was a really big deal when Baty was called up. 3 years later, he doesn't really seem to be part of the team's future. It makes sense to trade him. But it also makes sense to see if he can stay healthy and put up big numbers in AAA for at least a half-season before shopping him at the trade deadline.

Guest

2:07

Would you rather have Darvish or Houck? Darvish did well down the stretch; Houck had the better overall numbers and is much younger, but I fear the regression factor. Thoughts?

Jon Becker

2:08

I think Houck, since he's younger as you said and I could totally buy that he just ran out of gas. But having gotten through the season, he should be better-equipped for this year. That's not a knock on Darvish at all, who I think can be good into his 40s because he's so crafty. He'll probably come up with a couple new pitch types before he retires.

Dan

2:08

Are you taking into account Stroman saying he won't pitch in relief (or similar off field information) when making up your projected lineups

Jason Martinez

2:11

Yep. I always taking everything into account, although I don't think his "I'm a starter" comment changes much. In fact, I moved him to the bullpen two days ago after I decided to just list the Yankees with 5 starters instead of 6. I think he's a starter and a very effective No. 4 or 5 starter, which is why I just listed him in the rotation and figured that things would sort themselves out (injury or trade). But, if the season started and the 5 guys ahead of him are healthy (good chance they're all not), I think Stroman is a long reliever.

drplantwrench

2:11

assuming neto doesnt start at SS by opening day, who do you think the Angels OD SS is? fangraphs is saying tim anderson, but i feel like perry got kevin newman/scott kingery for a reason

Jon Becker

2:13

Yeah, we've got Anderson, though we've still got Newman projected with more overall PA since Anderson won't have as clear a roster spot when Neto is back. Spring Training stats don't matter for most players, but if a guy like Anderson is pulling the ball and looking more like his old self, I don't think Newman's going to be staving him off.

drplantwrench

2:13

the angels 5th/6th pitcher spot is fascinating to me, with Reid Detmers, Jack Kochanowcz, Caden Dana, Sam Bachman, Chase Silseth, and Sam Aldegheri all in contention. i assume hendricks will fall off and these guys will get more playing time, but how do you see it playing out?

Jason Martinez

2:15

Detmers is the guy who has had some MLB success and upside. I think they'd want to give him one more good opportunity before giving one of the younger guys a chance. Dana is the kind of prospect you call up when you think he's going to be up for good.

Unless Hendricks is terrible over his first few starts, I think the plan is to stick with him as long as possible and turn to the youngsters if they fall out of contention.

Nickwid

2:16

Who do you think will win the AL East if you had to make a guess?

Jon Becker

2:16

Maybe recency bias based on their awesome offseason, but I'm going Red Sox. Having Mayer, Anthony, or Campbell ready to go if/when somebody gets hurt or slumps is an embarrassment of riches.

Brian

2:17

One's head spins from all the position players in the mix for Baltimore. Assuming no trades before Opening Day, how do you think the OF names in particular will shake out?

Jason Martinez

2:19

You can see the playing time projection breakdown here ... https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/orioles

or here ... https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2

I think the big takeaway is that Kjerstad can get 400+ PA even if he's not a "lineup regular" because Gunnar Henderson is the only player I have projected with more than 600 PA+. Depth is good. They also have prospects who are close and a bounce-back candidate with options remaining (Dylan Carlson).

Guest

2:20

News out of Rockies camp is that they'll start Kris Bryant in RF for away games and DH him for home games. Jordan Beck will do the inverse. What's your opinion on this actually happening? It seems a bit wild to me that they wouldn't permanently DH KB and let Jordan Beck show them what he has in the field.

Jon Becker

2:21

I haven't seen Bryant or anyone with the Rockies make any public comments about this, but it's possible they're deferring to Bryant's wishes to some extent. A lot of players really, really don't like to DH, just sitting around waiting for their next plate appearances, so having him DH half the time would be a decent enough compromise there.

Rayball10

2:21

Who's got the best potential to throw the most IP in 2024 amongst:
Ryne Nelson
Hayden Wesneski
Slade Cecconi
Brandon Birdsell
Chad Patrick

Jason Martinez

2:24

Wesneski. He's in the projected rotation now and I think he controls his own destiny for the most part. The Astros can hold off on bringing back Luis Garcia or Lance McCullers Jr. from the IL if Wesneski is pitching well.

2:24

With Durbin the Crew's only infield addition, it's looking more like Turang at SS, no?

Jon Becker

2:26

They've got multiple options even if they don't add anybody else. Turang can play second and short, Ortiz can play second, short, and third, Durbin and Dunn can play second and third. Frelick may also factor in at third too. My guess is that Ortiz and Turang are settled in at one position each, but where exactly that is hinges a lot on who impresses Pat Murphy and the staff during Spring Training games.

John

2:26

Who do you think will dominate (excluding Ohtani) coming off Tommy John surgery this year?

Jason Martinez

2:28

deGrom should dominate again. His stuff is too good. Whether he can stay healthy is another question. But you can pretty much say that about every pitcher these days. Looking forward to seeing Matt Brash and Felix Bautista again.

Here's a list of players who are recovering/recovered from TJ and could return in 2025 ... https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/injury-report?injury=tj&grou...

Bullock's

2:28

What are the odds that Heston Kjerstad is already a better hitter than one of the Ryans in Baltimore?

Jon Becker

2:29

Pretty good, I'd say, though I expect better from Mountcastle with the LF wall moving back in. Kjerstad was solidly above-average in his time in MLB last year despite not pulling a single fly ball to right field (all of his homers were dead CF), and like Jason said earlier, there should be plenty of playing time for him even if he's not a "starter"

Dombrowski

2:29

I know Marsh cant hold up in CF defensively fulltime and Kepler/Wilson platoon is fine for reg season but am I counting on Crawford for CF for the stretch run and playoffs? Moving Marsh or keeping Kepler LF who ever hits more

Jason Martinez

2:32

I don't think they're planning on it because Crawford is not ready yet. Seems like they think he's close but I'd guess 2026 is more likely. But I do think they'd acknowledge that he is talented enough to figure things out, make the jump, and have an impact in late 2025. Then they'd adjust from there. Would be a pleasant surprise.

Brian

2:32

Right now the Orioles project to have an all-right-handed starting rotation. Even among the depth, only Povich and Rogers are lefties. How common is it for a rotation to be so righty-heavy?

Jon Becker

2:35

It happens more often than you think — the White Sox I think went close to 200 games without using a lefty starter, a streak that ended in the middle of 2023, if I recall correctly. Right now we've also got the Guardians, Twins, Mariners, and Blue Jays with all righties, so one-sixth of the league.

Datt Mamon

2:35

Fifteen keepers pre-draft. I have positional redundacy at 3B with Westburg and Vientos. I have H. Ramos as my third OF but don't necessarily want to keep him, but I feel like it's going to come down to Vientos or Ramos. Who are you higher on long-term?

Jason Martinez

2:38

Heliot had a .604 OPS and 68 wRC+ over his final 111 PA. Possibly just wore down over his 1st MLB season and could be ready to build on an overall solid performance. But his splits were also concerning. He crushed LHP and was bad vs RHP. Vientos seems like he's on the verge of becoming a star.

Guest

2:38

I feel like every free agent this off-season has got $5-10 million more in AAV than market value. Some crazy over pays for someone like Willy Adames or Alex Bregman

Jon Becker

2:40

Yeah, a lot came in higher than expectations, though worth noting that the significant deferrals in Bregman's contract make the net present value more like $95M, which doesn't strike me as crazy-high for a three-year deal. Adames did about what I expected by AAV, just with an extra year. On the flip side, Alonso, Flaherty, and Santander (considering the significant deferrals in his deal) did a lot worse than I thought they would.

Brian

2:40

Not a question, just a comment around the 81 names on the Free Agent Tracker who currently remain unsigned. We focus so much on "where is Bregman going to land" that perhaps we forget that dozens of players' careers are likely ending before our eyes, most involuntarily. It's a rough business.

Jason Martinez

2:41

For sure. This is the time of year where I start adjusting the playing time projections down for free agents. And, eventually, I just remove them from the list. A quick glance and you can kind of see it probably being over for a few guys still on the list ...

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=0

Jon Becker

2:42

I'm sure at least a handful of those guys have the mindset of "if someone gives me guaranteed money I'll keep going, but I'd rather just be done than fight for a spot or go back to the minors at this point on my career."

Brian Cashman

2:42

Which free agent starters would have to sign before Marcus Stroman becomes an appealing option to teams?

Jon Becker

2:44

Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Andrew Heaney and Jose Quintana will all get MLB deals and will get paid less than Stroman is owed. It's also important to note that Stroman has an option that vests if he pitches 140 innings this year, so if you're trading for him you're likelier than not to be getting two years of him. And if he pitches like he did down the stretch, it could be the same commotion all over again next offseason, with his new team trying to dump his salary and nobody really biting.

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