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RosterResource Chat - 2/7/25
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AvatarJon Becker
That'll do it for us today, have a great weekend and will be back next week! And with the questions showing up on your screen the right way!
3:15
I don't think he can be as bad as he just was, mostly because it's really really hard to be that bad two years in a row. But I don't think he's coming anywhere near his career norms again now that he'll be in his age-36 season. The depth chart projections of a 95 wRC+ even feel a little optimistic to me, but if he can do that he'll be pretty useful.
Misinformation
3:14
If you're taking a flyer on some roster depth, what chance do think DJ LeMahieu's major malfunction last year was mostly health and he rebounds? o/u 50-50 he plays about 100g, decent D, approximates his career .350 OBP?
AvatarJason Martinez
3:13
It's possible, although Chourio was over .360 OBP in the 2nd half and seemed comfortable in that role down the stretch. Of course, he also proved that he could be a 2 or 3 hitter. Yelich and Mitchell could be leadoff options. Frelick has that ability, although his BB% wasn't good last season.
Dodgers Blue
3:11
You project Chourio to lead off.  Only real legit OBP threats in the Brewers lineup seem to be William and Yelich.  Could the Brew Crew benefit from a legit lead off guy not named Chourio to put him in a better position to drive runs in for team?
AvatarJon Becker
3:09
There's a lot of moving parts on that team, and where Lux and McLain play are probably the biggest unanswered questions. McLain got some outfield time in the AFL and I assume he'll be there again in Spring Training. Maybe Lux gets some 3B/OF time, too.
Reds Enjoyer
3:09
Where does Gavin Lux end up getting most of his playing time? It really seems like McLain should just be a set-it-and-forget-it at 2B but mabye I'm wrong!
AvatarJason Martinez
3:09
I consider Jhonkensy to be in David Fry's role (1B/OF, platoon vs LHP). Arias is out of options and should stick. He's talented. Just hasn't put it all together in the majors. I have Schneeman as the last guy on the bench. Can play anywhere. But none of that is set in stone. Rodriguez didn't hit in the majors last season (small sample) but I don't think they've given up on him. He put up huge numbers in AAA.
Bubba
3:07
Zips has Johnathan Rodriguez as a .797 ops hitter vs lhp.  He destroyed lhp in AAA, a roughly 1.100 ops the last two years.   He seems like the perfect replacement for David Fry but I don't see him on your roster.  Instead you have two utility SS in Arias and Schneemann.  Why?
AvatarJon Becker
3:06
Definitely a lot of alarming trends in Holliday's first season, but he was so young that I'm not super concerned just yet, especially since he added the toe tap for the last week of the season that seemed to really work for him. Big, big year for him this year, though.
Holliday vs Kelenic
3:05
Is Jackson Holliday the next Jarrod Kelenic, Dustin Ackley, or Jeff Clement? (Sorry for the Mariner's references, but when you get burned once…)
AvatarJason Martinez
3:05
Oh, they know very well that it's one of the dumb things that has "stuck to the wall". You don't have to be Johnnie Cochran to know how this works once you find that thing (real or not) that causes outrage. They will use it.
Misinformation
3:02
Now that the owners know deferrals can energize a seemingly large group of humans to join them on a salary cap, do you think they'll try to exploit this to sway public opinion against the players?
AvatarJon Becker
3:01
If they could find a way to get Cease or King then I'm sure they would, since those are clear upgrades over what they've got. Not sure they'd view Pivetta as enough of one (or one at all, plus they'd have to give up a draft pick), and there's certainly not any real reason for them to add Quintana, Heaney, Gibson, Lynn, etc.
Dodgers Blue
3:01
Do you think the Cubs feel they are set with their rotation?  I was surprised they didn't go after Flaherty or Scherzer.  Do you think they still have something up their sleeve?
AvatarJason Martinez
3:00
I'd guess it's higher than anyone else on the current roster. I still think there's a chance they bring back David Robertson or sign someone like Kenley Jansen. Maybe Kendall Graveman is an option. He's someone who is good enough to close once he's back to full health. Of course, there's also a chance someone who most people have never heard of is closing for them in August.
Rose
2:58
% Chance Robert Garcia is the Rangers Closer by the end of the year?
AvatarJon Becker
2:58
A couple reasons for this, I think. One is that the pitchers themselves wouldn't be fans of this; starters want to start and know exactly when they're pitching. So even if you say "you're coming in for the fourth inning" that's a wide range of possible times. The second is that the roster limits — even with 13 pitchers instead of 12, and of course there was a time when it was 11, and so on — make it hard to use two pitchers for one rotation spot giving you six innings every five games.
Phil
2:56
Why don't more teams piggyback young starting pitchers in order to control innings and get experience?  Seems like the Tigers, for one, could easily piggyback Jobe and Mize.
AvatarJason Martinez
2:55
It's either him, Yasmani Grandal, or Luke Maile at this point. Or maybe they really love Alex Jackson. Can't be too many options for those guys so Yankees might just be waiting for the price to come down.
Chris
2:54
McCann seems like the last viable option for Yanks backup C and RH platoon w Wells.  I guess still asking for too much?
AvatarJon Becker
2:54
Yes, but only because the season starts pretty soon! Even despite adding Severino and Springs the A's still have the worst projected SP WAR, but I would be very surprised to see them sign another high-AAV deal and give up another draft pick. Maybe the Angels (fifth-worst projection) or Orioles (eighth-worst)?
MTF
2:52
Does Pivetta find a team soon?  Which teams fit best?
AvatarJason Martinez
2:52
Festa has the most upside so, of course, there is gonna be an expectation that he's in there over someone like Paddack, who has been hurt and not very impressive. But Paddack is also out of options so they need to figure out if he can return to pre-injury form. And Festa can wait his turn in AAA and compete with Zebby to be "next in line". Rookie pitchers aren't making 30+ starts these days, anyways, so having one in the Opening Day rotation has become less likely.
Rose
2:50
I like Festa but there seems to be a disproportionate about of hype for him to win that 5th starter spot? Doesn't Zebby Matthews have just as good, maybe better, chance?
AvatarJon Becker
2:49
Mike Hazen said they view Del Castillo as a catcher so backup catcher is the only spot he's in the running for out of camp, but if there's an injury or he really forces the issue with the bat they could absolutely call him up to DH a lot to keep his bat in the lineup. Rene Pinto is also out of options and I'd be surprised if the Diamondbacks risked losing two good depth catchers in Pinto and Herrera straight out of camp.
Dodgers Blue
2:48
RE early question on Pavin Smith - what do the DBacks do if Adrian Del Castillo really rakes in AAA?  Do they expose Herrera to waiver wire with no options left - or is someone else moved out?
AvatarJason Martinez
2:47
That's mostly because of Cutch and Pham. And I really do love what those two bring to a lineup/clubhouse. If you're gonna rely on mostly unproven/young players, having those two guys leading the way is important. Overall numbers won't be great but I think quality of at-bats, preparation, etc. will pay off.
Justin
2:46
No actual question here.   Just sharing a fun fact. By Roster Resource projected starting lineups, the Pirates currently have the 3rd oldest in baseball.  Nothing wrong with that per se - if you can play, you can play.  The Phillies and Dodgers prove that - but seems not great spot for a rebuilding middling team!
AvatarJon Becker
2:45
This is entirely speculative, but maybe the Yankees aren't thrilled with the idea of signing a 2017 Astro? They also only have $16M to work with before hitting the top tax line, though I don't know that they view that as a hard cap. But at this point... yeah, not many options. Brendan Rodgers, Paul DeJong, and Jose Iglesias are the only everyday-ish infielders left in FA.
Dodgers Blue
2:43
When the Yankees let Gleyber walk without a hint of wanting him back, my assumption was they were in play for Bregman or Ha-Seong Kim.  With Kim off the market, and apparently zero interest in Bregman either, what are we doing here????
AvatarJason Martinez
2:43
Well, not RosterResource since I don't do my own projections anymore. But of the 6 projection systems that are housed on FanGraphs, Wilson's batting average ranges from .269-.287. Seems reasonable for that profile, which is very unique. Especially for a right-handed batter. But even for a guy like Arraez, it can be tough to find holes in the outfield when teams know you don't have much power. I'd have more confidence if he can slug a bit in his rookie season. Maybe 10-15 HR and 30+ doubles. Not sure he has that in him.
Wilson
2:39
Roster Resource predicts that Jacob Wilson will hit .287 this year. Will he ever hit .300 or contend for a batting title?
AvatarJon Becker
2:38
I'd lean Hendriks, and Jason's saves projections (22 for Hendriks, 12 for Chapman) currently reflect that. Chapman walks so many hitters and managers don't love that in the ninth.
Yark
2:37
Will Chapman get the majority of save opportunities in 2025?
AvatarJason Martinez
2:37
Important day! Usually not a lot of 60-Day IL activity right away. Not too many players waiting around to sign a MLB deal at this point and teams holding off until they can move guys to the 60-Day IL. But I'd put the O/U at around 175 players on the IL for Opening Day.
Yark
2:36
Jason big day next week. 60 day IL season lol. What's the over/under
AvatarJon Becker
2:34
White Sox are easily the biggest mess right now with only Martín Pérez assured of a spot. After that... maybe the handful of teams we have projected for six-man rotations that might not actually use them? Yankees to accommodate Stroman, Diamondbacks for Montgomery, Rays
Dodgers Blue
2:33
If you had to name the (3) least confident rotation projections you had at the moment, which teams would those be?
AvatarJason Martinez
2:32
Sounds like that's been the plan for several reasons. Need to keep Perez healthy and keep his bat in the lineup as much as possible. And Fermin is a very good catcher and he should be getting more than 50% of starts. The biggest challenge in 2025 is that there are not many at-bats available at 1B with Pasquantino there and maybe less DH opportunities unless India or Massey can play an adequate LF or 3B. TBD.
Connecting…
Ice Cream Helmet
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6:54
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I've always felt that, all else being equal, a lineup of nine 100 wRC+ batters would perform better than a lineup that has studstop-loaded with studs
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comish4lif
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7:17
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First, thanks for Roster Resource and for doing these chats.
But also, Why is the chat putting th enewest questions and comments at the top?
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Chris
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7:22
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Why do the Yanks seem so keen to move Jazz back to 2B, I thought he passed the eye test at 3B and I believe the metrics back it up.  Isnt finding a 2B somewhat easier?
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J
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7:23
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The chat history is flipped for me today (new messages appear up top and you have to scroll down for old ones). Is this just a me problem or did this recently change? (I do not like it one bit)
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Mike Elias
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7:30
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How many outfielders do we get  to play again?
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Ice Cream Helmet
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7:32
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Any managing or front office changes this year that you think significantly change the stolen base outlook for any teams?
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comish4lif
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7:33
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Billy Hamilton played a full season in the Mexican League last year and stole 75 base. But he whiffed 116 times in 527 PA with a 324 OBP. Doesn't seem like he's adjustred his approach...
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Guest
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7:35
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Will a Padres fire sale of pitchers effect the stud bats motivation? Like "why should we try" Any thoughts?
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BC26
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7:35
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Who plays 3B for the Yankees on Opening Day?
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Fish
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7:36
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how do you feel the marlins rebuild is going?
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Mulligan
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7:40
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Any chance Mick Abel gets a shot in the rotation? Or are his control problems insurmountable?
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Mr. Burrito
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7:51
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What's the biggest legitimate roster question on a contending team going into spring?
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Mize
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7:57
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Speaking of Mize, is he now who he has become, or is there another level up for the former top prospect?
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Bubba
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8:09
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Who leads of for the following?  NYY, KC, Bos?  Thanks! Have a great weekend.
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Potato Sack Girl
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8:11
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Does Soderstrom get platooned this year or full run at 1b/DH? I'm assuming he's not a catcher anymore and does he block Kurtz in the future?
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Dodgers Blue
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8:11
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With the re-signing of Alonso, are there enough ABs left around the diamond for Acuna - who was rumored to be in the mix for starting 3B with Vientos moving to 1B?  Or are they better off letting him get every day at bats and developing in the minors and use someone like Madrigal as the utility infielder on the major league roster?
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Potato Sack Girl
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8:13
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Does Yainer Diaz get less ABs this year w/the Walker signing?
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Potato Sack Girl
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8:15
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Do you think Tena holds on to 3b all year? Is he also the primary backup for 2b/ss?
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