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RosterResource Chat - 3/21/25
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AvatarJason Martinez
2:44
I've gone back and forth the last week and Alex Cora's comments definitely made it seem like Kristian Campbell wasn't making the Opening Day roster. But they've gone with him in a lineup with most of the regulars several times since. Today's lineup includes Campbell at 2B and it does look like an Opening day lineup. And they're facing a very good SP (Mitch Keller). So, based on that, I do have Campbell in there now ...

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/red-sox
chaim bloom
2:45
cards been saying all offseason, every chance they get, Gorman pa target is 550-600. are projections too low
AvatarJon Becker
2:47
I think there can be a big gap between what a team would like to do and what it can actually do in practice, because who are you realistically taking PA away from to get Gorman another 150-200? Guys can and will get hurt but outside of that (and we don't really like to assume injuries for position players like we can sorta imply with pitchers when we do PT projections) I don't think there's much more than the 406 we have him projected for up for grabs.
DB
2:49
A lot of muddled bullpens in Pit, Arz and Cin. Some favorites to close; but what are some folks who may emerge by May or August?  Not as we sit today.
AvatarJason Martinez
2:51
Reds are interesting because Alexis Diaz does not have enough of a track record to go into the season with much room for error. Tony Santillan is interesting. I'd think Pagan and Rogers would be part of a committee if they go in that direction. If we're talking about 2nd half, keep an eye on the progress of Luis Mey and Zach Maxwell. Both throw 100+ MPH.
AvatarJon Becker
2:52
For Pittsburgh I think Bednar's got the job indefinitely unless he's really bad like he was to start last year, in which case it's probably Holderman. Diamondbacks aren't going to name someone before the season but teams who do that generally still settle on one guy, which I think would be Martinez, or Puk if it's lefties coming up.
BCubs
2:52
Will Doval have any shot to regain his closer status?
AvatarJon Becker
2:53
Sure, closer is the single hardest job in MLB to keep. Walker can always stumble and Doval can look more like his old self. There are exactly zero closers in the league whose jobs are 100% assured and it's certainly not for a more unproven (but great!) arm like Walker.
RAGBRAI
2:54
Jared Jones, best guess out for a month or two or likely out for the season/TJ?
AvatarJason Martinez
2:56
My guess is TJ surgery ASAP so he has a decent chance to return in the 2nd half of 2026. But if this drags on beyond April, my guess is he'd try to rest/rehab and hope to pitch again later this season. But I'm pessimistic with this kind of stuff. Because it almost always ends with TJ surgery.
AvatarJon Becker
2:57
I think it got snuck into the initial report that there was still discussion going on or a second opinion or something, which means it's not just soreness, whatever it is.
Olerud Slides
2:57
What are the chances Whitlock closed in BOS?
AvatarJon Becker
2:58
Non-zero, but he's probably at best fourth in line after Chapman, Hendricks, and Slaten (in some order). He's pitched like himself this spring so he should be in high-leverage from the jump, though.
SBru
2:59
What are your projections for S Torkelson this season ?
AvatarJason Martinez
3:02
I currently have him with 364 PA, which is about 250 more than I had him early in the offseason. Most of the projections systems have him as a slightly above league average hitter. If he's better than that, it will be difficult to send him back to AAA. But if Colt Keith progresses and looks comfortable at 1B, Tork is limited to a platoon bat vs LHP unless Kerry Carpenter ends up playing a lot more OF than he has in the past.
copecru
3:02
What is the latest on Parker Meadows?
AvatarJon Becker
3:04
The Tigers just released their (very thorough, which we appreciate!) injury report that says he's "completing conditioning, defensive drills, & rehab daily" which leads me to believe he's not hitting or throwing yet. Won't be a ton of time to ramp up once he starts doing those things but every day he's not doing that makes it less and less likely it's just a minimum stint on the IL. Doesn't seem like a huge deal though.
Kate
3:05
Shane Smith made the team, seems like you all think it's prob pen to start, maybe rotation later?
AvatarJason Martinez
3:08
That was the initial projection. Long reliever with maybe a few spot starts. The main priority for a Rule 5 pick is to just keep him on the roster long enough to retain his rights. And then the White Sox would have a high upside arm under team control for 5 more seasons. But he's been so impressive this spring that he might be more than just a potential high-leverage bullpen arm/back-of-rotation SP. After his last start, I moved him into the rotation.

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/white-sox
AvatarJon Becker
3:08
They also don't need a fifth starter until April 12, so they're likely to just start with Wilson and Smith both in the bullpen and decide later depending on who's used in the meantime.
Guest
3:09
What would the cardinals outfield look like if Victor Scott can't keep the hot spring training numbers up?
AvatarJon Becker
3:10
In fairness to the Gorman question from "chaim bloom" earlier, this would be one way to get him more playing time. Scott II struggling but Siani not being the replacement (at least as a starter) opens up more LF for Donovan, which slides Nootbaar over to CF and creates more permanent time at 2B for Gorman.
sho
3:10
When does MLB crack down more on IL manipulation? I'm looking specifically at the Dodgers.
AvatarJason Martinez
3:13
I'm still blown away that a GM (Eppler) was suspended for it. Seems to me that "manipulating" the IL is the easiest thing to do because it's such a long season and players will tell you that they're rarely 100% healthy over 162 games (plus spring training/playoffs). Any MRI on a pitcher's elbow will show some wear and tear. Even some general soreness could result in an IL stint. For whatever reason, Eppler got thrown under the bus.
mario
3:13
kinda surprised Houston prefers Dubon > Brendan Rodgers...  or am I just hanging on to the latter's unfulfilled prospect pedigree?
AvatarJon Becker
3:15
A few factors in Dubón's favor: versatility, being on the 40-man roster already, and being a highly-respected and loved clubhouse guy. I think Rodgers would have had to light the Grapefruit League up to get ahead of Dubón, and as a 2B-only it's tough to make the roster as a bench bat, too, which is why we've got Guillorme ahead of him as well.
Dewey
3:15
Do you think Victor Scott wins the Cards' CF job?  Thoughts on Marlins' Jonah Bride as a corner reserve in a deep OBP league? Thanks.
AvatarJason Martinez
3:18
I don't see how Scott doesn't win the job. Not sure how much time they'll give him if he struggles out of the gate, but he is a much better hitter than Siani and should continue to get better.

I like Bride, especially because of his OBP skill gives him a much higher floor than the Marlins' other 1B/DH options (Mervis/De Los Santos).
3:19
That will do it for today. Back next week. Have a great weekend, everybody. 6 more days until real baseball!
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