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Sam Werner's Penguins chat: 8.31.17
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Sam Werner
1:45
Yeah, I think the Penguins would certainly like to get out from that contract. But they're not going to make a Pirates-esque salary dump just to get it off the books. If they can find a good deal that moves Hagelin's contract, great. If not, they're fine hoping he bounces back this season.
GregR
1:45
Rust is gonna score give or take 20 goals this year if healthy. (yes I am Nostradomus), Is he getting 3.5/mill a year next year like year as an RFA like Sheary?
Sam Werner
1:49
Well if he plays a full season, at the pace he scored this year, he'd put up 21. The determining factor, really, will be how much time he spends with Crosby or Malkin. If he spends at least half his time on those top two lines, I don't see any reason why 20 can't be the high end of his projection. But especially with Sprong and Aston-Reese waiting in the wings, I think it's more likely Rust spends the majority of his time this year in the bottom six, to the detriment of his offensive numbers. As for his extension, I'd expect him to get a bit less than Sheary, maybe in the 2-2.5 million range.
Guest
1:49
It's funny to me how many Pens fans think Phil Kessel and his $6.8mm contract are a problem for the team. When the Pens traded for Kessel, I thought it was a mistake. In hindsight, I'm pretty sure GMJR and Sully are a lot smarter than I am. Which would you rather have? TJ Oshie at 5.75 mm? Or Patrick Kane at $10mm per? Or maybe sign Jack Eichel at $10mm? One thing we see from all the sports leagues with salary caps is that the very best players deliver a lot of added value, while the second tier down, the 1x all star, good-but-not-great players make nearly the same money but don't deliver added value. Value above the contract is the only way to win in a salary-capped league. I think Phil Kessel can score in some situations where almost noboby else can. He plays hard. He drives possession. He's a total luxury after Sid and Malkin--but also the margin between: winning cups and not winning cups.
Sam Werner
1:52
He also plays in literally every single game, which helps. Yeah, you're not wrong with Phil. I think as long as the Penguins can build their roster in the current format, they're happy to pay him $6.8 million. The problem could come in a few years, when the young wingers (Guentzel, Sprong, etc.) need to get paid. And in that case, you'd rather have both of those guys than just Kessel.
TK
1:52
Aren't teams allowed to be over the cap during the off-season?  I'm wondering if there might be more trade possibilities once teams have to get under the cap.
Sam Werner
1:53
There's a limit, but yeah, and I think that's part of what Rutherford is counting on. Right now, all NHL GMs are thinking about their rosters in the abstract, but soon they're actually going to have to start thinking about fielding a team for opening night, which could help out the Penguins.
Bill
1:53
Hearing a lot of good things about Greg McKegg is he a diamond in the ruff center.
Sam Werner
1:53
With a leg for an arm, and an arm for a leg!
1:54
I think McKegg is fine as a depth guy who maybe gets a handful of NHL games this season in injury situations, but if the Penguins are counting on him to solve the 3C issue they're in trouble.
Pens fan stuck in DC
1:54
What do you think the Pens will do if Niemi continues to struggle as he did last year? Bring up Jarry or trade for another veteran? I'd hate to see them overwork Murray during the regular season with his injury history.
Sam Werner
1:55
Probably the latter. They want Jarry to get regular action in WBS, not sit on the bench in Pittsburgh. Look no further than last year when they added Mike Condon.
DW
1:55
If Guentzel had to start the season as 3C, I'd love to see Kessel paired up w/ him.  Kessel thrived as the big name w/ HBK, you'd have to think Jake would give him better chances than Bonino did and he plays way a different style than 71
Sam Werner
1:55
Well, with the caveat of I don't think that's going to happen, I do think you're on to something in that Kessel's chemistry with whoever the 3C ends up being is going to be a major factor for the Penguins this season.
In GMJR We Trust
1:55
How much do you believe injuries contributed to a down season for Hagelin last year? Any expectations for this year?
Sam Werner
1:57
A decent amount, especially in the playoffs. He had never really been seriously injured before, so that was certainly frustrating for him. I think the most important thing for him this year is finding some sort of consistent role in the lineup (probably on the third line?). But as for goals, I'd say 10-15 goals and north of 20 assists would be a nice bounce-back season.
GoPens
1:57
Pens are reportedly $3.28M below the cap.  It seems like this salary cap space plus just not signing Archibald and Ruhwedel would have been enough to sign Bonino.
Sam Werner
1:58
Oh, they could've re-signed Bonino if they really wanted to. But think about paying a 33-year-old Nick Bonino $4.1 million in 2021 and ask yourself if that's a future you want to live in.
Jason
2:00
I'm in Vegas right now and the Pens are still the fav to repeat! BTW I haven't ran into Marc yet do you know if he's moved out here yet?
Sam Werner
2:00
Hey, why shouldn't they be? Back-to-back champs and, for as much local consternation as there is over the 3C situation, they still bring back a ton. Not sure on Fleury's whereabouts, but I believe he should be out there by now.
2:01
OK, that's all the time we've got for this week. Jason's back in the saddle next Thursday and then after that it'll be time for training camp. Make sure to keep up with our Penguins Prospectus series here: http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/penguins/2017/08/08/2017-18-Penguin...
Today was Derrick Pouliot, tomorrow is Bryan Rust. Thanks for chatting!
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