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Sep20 2021 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:01
Hey, all!! 1/13th of the season left for standard roto leagues; also know it's high time for many H2H playoffs. And others have turned the page to 2022. Able to cover it all; so hit me up. Some great stuff in the queue already; let's savor these last couple weeks of the regular season. To it ...
Jimmy
12:05
Championship week, need 3 SP, Lauer, Morton, Musgrove, F. Valdez or L. Webb.  Musgrove has been great but terrible matchup & Pads playing awful.
Brent Hershey
12:05
Not sure if the 2-start weeks matter, but both Musgrove and Valdez have favorable numbers via our tool, and Morton's start tops them both.
If it's just 3 individual starts, then Morton, Musgrove vATL and Webb. Good luck!
Beano
12:09
Hello & thanks! Thoughts on Vilade of Colorado- PT & ROS value?
Brent Hershey
12:09
Outside of the natural Coors bump, not entirely excited here. COL has history of not being able to work rookies into lineup real well; though they have all home games this week the matchups are really tough. Maybe there's something there longer term, but it's not a big power profile -- IOW, not sure the bat will carry him in an OF corner. I'd pass for now.
Chaz
12:12
Hi Brent. It's on to 2022 in my 10-team roto keeper league. Christian Yelich was one of my big keepers two years ago but now it's looking like he won't make the cut (we keep 8 per year, no contracts). Would you keep Yelich over any of these players? Alex Bregman, Mookie Betts, Pete Alonso, Trea Turner, Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, Walker Buehler and Shane Bieber. Thanks for your help this season!
Brent Hershey
12:12
Think it's pretty unlikely given that group. Now ... if the slight chance that deG or Bieber would have setbacks and/or offseason surgery, then maybe I'd consider Yelich over them -- as the rest of this core is built for NOW, even in a 10-teamer. But yeah, how far Yelich has fallen ... def affected me in a couple leagues.
Pete
12:16
Brent, I asked you a question about Matt Olson earlier in the year, and he's helped me all but win my league after trading for him. What's your early 2022 outlook on Olson in an OBP instead of BA league? Can he be one of the top 1B for the next couple of years?
Brent Hershey
12:16
With 13-14 bb% in his past ~700+ AB ('20 and '21), sure seems like could be in that 'one of the best 1Bman' conversation. Love that he cranked 20 HR in the 1H, and then went out and upped his 2H bb% (15%) as pitchers were more careful with him. Biggest jump (and unexpended really) has been huge bump in ct%. At 27 y/o, just a fantastic all-around season.
Joe
12:19
I'm down to my (way too early) last keeper spot in an OBP/QS league before offseason trading resumes. How would you rank the following players: Merrifield, Winker, Robbie Ray, Sandy Alcantara? I don't have a 2B, I have Harper, Soto and Alvarez in my OF and Sale, Cole and Bieber at SP. Thx for all your help in 2021!
Brent Hershey
12:19
I'd likely rank them SandyA / Winker / Merrifield / Ray -- but all great choices. Alcantara clear #1; could see Merrifield>Winker due to positional needs; those are close. Figuring Merrifield's SB will have to take at least some of a hit. But Alcantara is for real.
louMartelli
12:24
Solid age-21 season for Nolan Gorman, including a reduced K rate. What are the reports on his transition to 2B, and is he refined enough at this point to win a starting spot with a good camp?
Brent Hershey
12:24
Reports I've heard on his D is that he's been adequate enough there that his plusses with the bat will outweigh some glove deficiencies. I think beating out Edman in spring is possible, but I'd still say unlikely at this point. Just my take, but his chances to be in April lineup might be enhanced if the DH hits the NL next year.
ShaDynasty
12:25
Hi Brent...safe to drop Tarik Skubal?  It appears as if he's being managed now due to an innings limit and isn't going deep into games...
Brent Hershey
12:25
In one-year leagues where you need innings/wins, yes, both Skubal and Mize's length of starts are being limited this month. Make sure you have better alternatives, but could be the right play here in the final two weeks.
James
12:30
A huge thank-you for continuing these weekly chats right to the end of the season, Brent. What is your way-too-early 2022 prognosis for Leody Taveras? The speed is obviously a huge carrot (particularly for those of us in AL-only formats), but will he hit enough to be more than a Delino DeShields Jr.-type asset?
Brent Hershey
12:30
You're welcome! I'm probably going to be a bit cautious w/ Taveras during draft season 2022, as it's a player I really want to see prove what he can do in a non-September setting. We know he has tools, but the performance floor hasn't been established yet. However, in an deep AL-only, those steals become more valuable. Remember that he's only 22; has always taken some time to adjust to new levels in the minors, and has a reputation for being a stellar defender in CF, which will (for now) work in his favor for MLB AB. Will be an interesting case to dig into during the offseason.
Guest
12:36
Hi brent, 5x5;NL only, 3 point lead, HR,RBI,Sb’s key. Can replace Stevenson ( 2022 cheap keeper) or Eugenio Suarez (no keeper)for Duffy, jace Peterson,l Diaz,tsztsugo, Alford, la Stella,ruf,gamel,shrock,duggar or vierling . Any thoughts?
Brent Hershey
12:36
My first thought is I wish you'd have shortened that list some, lol!
Though they have a terrible matchup this week, Alford is at least interesting because he's prob the best combo of HR/SB on this list. I'd take him over Stevenson for sure. Peterson and Diaz seem to be getting the most AB currently (I find it tough to parse out the SFG situation at this point). But do they give you more than Suarez's raw pop? Might hold the line there, esp since Suarez's September has been v good so far. Good luck!
HarrytheK
12:41
Is this the end of the fantasy road for Kyle Hendricks? He's one who always seemed to outperform his peripherals . . . until this year.
Brent Hershey
12:41
At 31, I doubt it ... think it's just a down year. I mean, am I going to chase after him and his 88 mph fastball in 2022? No. But has value as a mid-to-back end of the rotation guy with better than average control going forward at least. We—actually, I'll just speak for myself and say I—had too high of expectations after the 2020 short season.
HarrytheK
12:46
Who are some returning or ascending closer candidates for 2022 that can be nabbed on the cheap this year in dynasty leagues? Ken Giles comes to mind. Maybe Cory Knebel gets signed as a closer somewhere?
Brent Hershey
12:46
This saves market makes this track very tough ... Giles is likely the best example, as he's under contract. The rest you're just guessing on ... Knebel is one; maybe Osuna, though obv lots of other issues there. Maybe a few shots on guys who had some Svs time this year but flamed out -- Staumont, Trivino types?
Guest
12:51
On July 3 Johan Rojas was hitting .227 with a .642 OPS in Lo A. He finished Lo A at .240 - .305 - .374 - .679 with 26 BB’s and 69 K’s. In 60 AB’s after his promotion to Hi A he went .333 - .414 - .533 - ..947 with as many walks as strikeouts. What to make of this? SSS mirage, real breakout, or something in between?
Brent Hershey
12:51
Saw him live 2 weeks ago and am intrigued. There's some pedigree here from 2019, so it's not a SSS mirage, but I"m not ready to call it a 'real' breakout, either. He has some work to do to get to his power; tends to be ground-ball heavy, though he hits the ball hard. But he's fast ... so could be a source of steals in the future (34 in 2021). A player who is likely to get more helium here as we go through list season this winter. Likely back at High-A in 2022, but should get to AA next season at some point.
Buff
12:55
How likely is Michael Toglia to grab the Rockies’ first base job by 2023?
Brent Hershey
12:55
See my Vilade-young-Rockies answer above as far as playing time. Maybe COL does some front office cleansing between now and 2023 and player development affects lineup decisions more. But ... for now that always hangs over COL hitting prospects.
All that said, Toglia did have some nice power numbers in 2021, but the bar for 1B prospects is high, and I'm not sure he's at that point yet. I'll give you a 30% on the question, but watch the K% when he goes back to AA next season. Not sure he's shown the amount of power necessary to overcome that just yet.
Rick
1:00
Thanks for all your insight this season. Need to make decisions on players in a Dynasty league. How would you rank the following? Corbin Carroll, Marsh, Duran, and Dominic Smith (assuming NL has DH) next year? Thanks
Brent Hershey
1:00
Thanks for all the Qs this year; fun for me also! Dynasty rank:
Carroll, Duran, Marsh, DomSmith. I have some questions on whether Carroll has the fantasy tools necessary to top Duran's overall potential in our game, With Duran's power+speed heavy 2021, could be he has more paths to value than Carroll, whose main strengths are more in the 'pure hitter' vein. But those two are an interesting comparison in that light (different strengths). Like Marsh, too, and that trio def a step above DomSmith right now IMO, even w/ the NL DH.
Porcho Villa
1:02
Worried about Eloy—he’s been quite bad for the past month and isn’t showing signs of a turnaround in the final weeks. Seems like a possible hidden injury. Would you drop him for someone like Hays, Sano, or B. Rodgers?
Brent Hershey
1:02
Assuming this is a redraft league -- no, I personally wouldn't drop him for any of those three. If you're dead-set on it, Sano would be my choice -- but for any of these, we really are just trying to get our best probability of two hot weeks. Think Eloy is still the best play in this case.
Porcho Villa
1:03
I was almost rooting for Yu to get crushed again last week so I could drop him for a streamer. But he looked great. I have to hold now despite bad matchups and brutal 2H overall, right?
Brent Hershey
1:03
Yes, I think if you drop and he rocks, you'll kick yourself harder than if you keep and he gets crushed. Our SP rating system loves his start vATL this week, for what it's worth.
Porcho Villa
1:05
Hopping off the Wick closer train after the two blowups. Who is your preferred dice roll for last two weeks—Chafin, Stratton, or Esteves?
Brent Hershey
1:05
Probably Chafin, then Esteves, given the roll COL has been on. Just not sure Stratton will get the chances given PIT.
Dick
1:10
My weekly question:)  What's up with Hendricks.  He's been bad yet the pitcher matchup tool still gives him a +.2.  Start him or Carlos Hernandez (-.4) this week?  Or neither and go with Sewald.
Brent Hershey
1:10
Boy, that's tough. Might just go w/ Hernandez, whose skills I like better than Hendricks right now. Not a ton of separation in those two scores, despite +/- diff. Would probably go with Sewald over Hendricks, though, at this point if you don't absolutely need the start and/or Ks.
Katman
1:12
Can the Giants hold off the Dodgers? I’d much rather have them face Adam Wainwright than the Giants.
Brent Hershey
1:12
Yes, they can, given the year they had. Still can't quite figure it out, but sure seems magical. Down to the wire like a good fantasy race, though!
Brent Hershey
1:13
Well, that's it for another week ... gooood luck to you all yet again in this one, especially for those in close races. Will be back next week again at noon ET on Monday. Check out all our stuff at BaseballHQ.com (right here on the site, of course!). Thanks!
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