JotCast | Sep25 BHQ Chat

Sep25 BHQ Chat

Brent Hershey

12:01

Morning, chatters! Been a pleasure to interact all season long; thanks if you've joined this fray just once, if you're a weekly contributor, or if you just lurk and read! Been a grand time all season. You all have come through with great questions, and another pile awaits here ... so let's hop to it!

Guest

12:03

In a NL only keeper league, I can grab either Alec Burleson or Mark Vientos with our last FAAB Monday evening. Either's salary next year would be $3. Which one is a better roll of the dice option for NEXT year

Brent Hershey

12:03

Vientos for me. Like the swing and power potential more than Burleson. Yes, Mets have some sorting out to do as far as how/where to play all their kids (Baty, Mauricio, Vientos), but IF they chose to trade Alonso in the offseason, it opens up things for Vientos. Just feel MV is more a part of Mets' future plans than AB is for the Cards.

Dave

12:04

Brent, thanks to your advice and BHQ, I’m in the final of my H2H points lg. Kirby has good ratings (1.1 & 1.5) but vs. HOU and TEX. Trust him over Peralta with one home start vs Cubs?

Brent Hershey

12:04

Thanks for being a part, Dave.

Yes, I'd go w/ the two-step. Skills more or less even here; anything can happen last week. Good luck!

Dave

12:09

Hi Brent- Can you rank the following by their chances of making 2 starts: Maeda, Ober, M. King? Also, H. Greene listed as 2 starts but CIN only has 5 games. How? Thx!

Brent Hershey

12:09

King, Ober (think he makes Sunday start b/c he's unlikely to be a playoff starter). Not seeing anything that would say Maeda would get 2; Ober/López/S Gray have been announced for T/W/Th OAK series.

Reds have offday Thu, so Greene on Sun is on 'regular' rest. But, like most last-week SP matchups, it's all tentative. Greene prob more likely to go Sun if Reds are still in it. They also may want to give him as many MLB innings as poss since he missed time earlier.

Lotsa crazy factors ...

Dave

12:13

How concerned should I be that Muncy and Ozuna sit this week with LAD and ATL with playoff byes. Start Polanco over Muncy?

Brent Hershey

12:13

Here's the thing about teams w/ playoff byes (h/t to RotoWire Monday podcast): They are also off for five days after Sunday. So while it's probably likely that guys like Muncy/Ozuna get one day off this week, unless they're fighting some injury that they could benefit from extra rest, I think it's more likely they play a bunch this week to stay game-sharp as much as they can. And IIRC, remember that last year BOTH NL teams with a bye (ATL and LA) got bounced in the Division Series round.

I'd have Muncy in there over Polanco; unless your BA was at stake.

Rick

12:14

Hi Brent, In a Dynasty League for 1B, Casas or Vinnie?

Brent Hershey

12:14

Close, but I'd probably lean Casas. Partially b/c we've seen the growth, and partially b/c I trust Boston more than KC at the moment to surround with better hitters (though some good things going on in KC, also). But could make case for either.

Rick

12:17

Brent, Once again thanks for a great year. Any offseason Chats?

Brent Hershey

12:17

You're welcome, Rick. Given how much activity we've had here all season long, we may do some offseason ones, yes. I'd say it's pretty likely we take off until Thanksgiving-ish, because a bunch of us BHQers are buried in writing/compiling the Baseball Forecaster. But we'll see if we can jump back in late November/early December and get the ball rolling then. Would love to hear others' thoughts on this.

Rick

12:19

What are your thoughts regarding these players coming back next year? Oneil Cruz - How concerned are you about him coming back from his leg injury? Rizzo - He was having a good year until taking an accidental elbow to the head. Do you think he bounces back completely next year?

Brent Hershey

12:19

I'm not concerned about Cruz' health; given the time he will have had to heal. Skills-wise, there's still a lot to prove, though (can he make enough contact).
With Rizzo, I'm a bit more cautious -- head injury, for one, and then where he's at in the aging curve for another. No doubt pre-injury this year, he was raking ... but not sure I'd be ready to invest a ton in a 34-year-old coming off that injury, unless it's late March, he's playing well with no ill effects.

Beano

12:22

Last dance! -thanks for all your advice all season. NL 10 team 5x5.
I need HRs and I am looking at Donaldson, J Sanchez, T Fitzgerald, P. Wisdom, Josh Palacios, Andujar..
I would jettison a last year of contract JDDavis, maybe a $10 W Flores and, if he can't play, an $18 L Arraez.
(I may even try for X Edwards if Arraez is done -- but I don't know if I want to risk losing that $18 contract for a .300+ hitter...
Thoughts?
Pitching-wise, do you think it wise to waive Z Thompson & M Keller this week and grab safe 8th inning guys who might get wins/saves?

Brent Hershey

12:22

Beano -- thank you! Appreciate your showing up just about every week!

I'd rank em Sánchez, Palacios, Andújar ... and yeah, I'd not drop Arraez I don't think. And yes to looking for safe relievers instead of ZT and MK (@PHI)

Michael W

12:26

Happy Monday Brent! Thank you for an amazing season. Love reading/participating in the chat every week. Joe Adell was once a 9B prospect and came up really young. What do you see him becoming? Worth picking up in a 5x5 dynasty league (was dropped a month ago by another player)? I’m playing for the future.

Brent Hershey

12:26

Thanks for being a part, Michael!

Adell a big miss for most of us in the industry for sure. I don't have much hope for the superstar tools that we thought were there -- just too much swing and miss. It DID improve at AAA this year, but until he shows he can make better contact at MLB level, I'm not investing a ton. If it doesn't cost you much, picking him up won't hurt -- but he's 24 and I think badly needs a change of scenery to have any sort of chance at future relevance. IF you do grab him, though ... no qualms in cutting him next spring if there's no improvements. Needs to show growth ASAP.

Porky

12:29

Thank you for another great season of advice (and some patience with all of us). For 2024: is Junior Caminero likely to be a valuable contributor? TB usage since surprise call-up is odd.

Brent Hershey

12:29

Thank YOU, Porky! Always a fun hour (-plus sometimes).

And yes, I do think Caminero has a shot at contributing in 2024. One of the best skill sets in the minors; the fact that he's gone 110+ EV already just confirms it. I'm often wary of the Rays in their usage patterns for young players -- but signs point to Caminero being an outlier, and one who if he continues to impress in spring training, perhaps breaks camp w/ the team as their starting 3B.

WayOffBase

12:34

Is Michael King a $2 worth a roster slot if he is going to start for the Yankees next year?

Thanks to you (and Ray) for these in-season chats and to HQ for the invaluable data and analysis all year long. This year, I enjoyed one my most dominant victories in my home league of 30+ years. Primarily due to prep, but your tip on O'Hearn came at the right time given Mountcastle's injury. It's a 10-Tm Auction 5x5 w/ OB and TB, and WQS and SHO2. My showing in the AL-Only HQ Subscriber Auction League not so good this year--eleven places behind last year's finish. So it goes, it's baseball, and the ball doesn't always go the way you want it to. Thanks, again.

Brent Hershey

12:34

Oh, without a doubt. Easiest question I've had so far today! :-) In a mess of a NYY season, he's done exactly what they could have hoped for when they moved him into the rotation. King wants to be there, he's shown remarkable success ... I can't think of a situation (non-injury related for course), where they feel like he's more valuable in the pen than as a starter to begin 2024. Would love to have him as a $2 guy going into next season.

And appreciate the kind words and testimonial for BHQ -- both the good and the not so good. Just happens that way; it's what makes this game so fun and rewarding (the seeming randomness of it all). We just try to help point you all (subscribers especially, of course) in the right direction. Congrats and savor that home-league victory!

Andy in Kansas

12:36

Start Kenny Rosenberg v Oak or Giolito v Cin for ratios only?

Brent Hershey

12:36

I must say I'm surprised ... but our numbers favor Rosenberg heavily for both ERA and WHIP. That's the way I'd lean.

Will

12:36

Brent, no question today. Just a big thank you for all you do for us roto heads. The time you spend here is much appreciated!

Brent Hershey

12:36

Awesome, Will ... thank YOU! Have a great offseason!

keeper selection

12:37

keeper league choices: kyle harrison, andrew abbott, taj bradley (please keep 2). Who is the odd man out?

Brent Hershey

12:37

Abbott may out-produce one of those next season, but I definitely like Harrison/Bradley's skills better in the long term, so I'd choose those 2.

HarrytheK

12:39

Been holding Vaughn Grissom all year in keep forever OBP dynasty. Thinking about dropping. Your thoughts on his 2024 outlook?

Brent Hershey

12:39

Unless you're squeezed for spots, I'd hang on if I could through the offseason if I could. Seems like Grissom could be a trade candidate, and then just depends where he ends up. Big OBP guy in the minors. To be fair ... if he's still on ATL come March, I don't love his 2024 outlook.

Ron

12:43

Thank you, Brent, for all the counsel. I sit in second place (145 pts vs. 143) in a 18-teamer because of BBHQ. I have 2 final questions. The picthing categories are tight and I am looking for W, SV, and Ks.
I can start 10 P and have 9 locks. I need help on the last choice
START (9 sure things): M.Brash, J. Duran, B. Garrett, K. Gausman, Bobby Miller, E. Phillips, G. Rodriguez, P. Sewald, and Devin Williams
PICK ONE MORE: Louie Varland, Tanner Houck, and Jameson Taillon P | CHC

Second question. For hitters is the the correct order for performance this week:
T. Taylor > M. Vientos > K. Farmer > R. Grichuk >>R. Palacious?

Brent Hershey

12:43

You bet, Ron; and thanks for the props!

Varland strikes me as the kind of arm that could surprise in some non-traditional role this week, esp given his uptick in stuff from the bullpen. I'd roll with him.

Yes, with one caveat. IF you're looking for AB-based stats (runs/RBI), I think Farmer gets more AB this week than Vientos, so I'd flip those two in that case. If you're looking for straight power, then Vientos over Farmer. And I think the ">>" should be before Grichuk. Not really interested in those last two.

Andy in Kansas

12:46

There's no way Gausman is starting on Sunday unless things go really wrong for the Jays this week right? With Hou and Seattle playing each other I don't think the Jays can lose their spot right?

Brent Hershey

12:46

All depends how the week goes, but this is probably true -- if they have it wrapped up, they are likely saving him for G1 of the WC round. Though maybe he pitches 2 innings or something.

Andy in Kansas

12:46

need to drop 2 and am desperate to improve whip and era this week - Woo (obvious), Sale, Giolito, Hentges. K and Wins do nothing

Brent Hershey

12:46

Giolito

Andy in Kansas

12:47

Like anyone in an AL-only for sneaky saves this week? McArthur is gone to give you an idea of what's available (not much)

Brent Hershey

12:47

Louie Varland? Maybe he gets a 3-inning one over the weekend? Shot in the dark.