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Sep4 BHQ Chat
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Ray Murphy
11:06
Good morning and Happy Labor Day, HQers.... since my wife is a teacher and we have a couple of middle schooler, this isn't exactly a festive occasion in our house. But, it's obviously crunch time in our fantasy baseball leagues, so lets get to the questions....
Rick
11:08
Story has not surprisingly struggled after coming back from a long layoff, but how would you value him going into next year? Is he capable of being a top 10 shortstop again or is he more middle of the road going forward?
Ray Murphy
11:08
Yes, it's been a struggle, but I don't think I'm overly concerned for 2024. He's actually looked quite good defensively at SS, and after a full/normal offseason, I would expect the bat to come back. He'll only be 31 in 2024.
Rick
11:11
Detmers has shown some flashes this year, but for the most part he has been mediocre or worse. Do you see him potentially as a #2 or #3 starter or more likely to be a backend starter? Plus it looks like the Angels as a team won't be very helpful in the foreseeable future.
Ray Murphy
11:11
Yeah, there's a pronounced 1H/2H split there. If you look at 2H 2022 + 1H 2023, there's something really good there. And that's over about 150 IP, so a decent sample size. He's totally lost the thread here in July/August, but without taking a deep dive into what's going on with his pitch mix, etc., I think I'd trust the larger sample size and consider him an undervalued target for 2024. But you're certainly right that the Angels' team context is a big question mark.
Jack
11:14
Varsho's value this year has been the fact he is catcher eligible. Next year that is gone. Any reason to believe he will be anything more than a replacement value type outfielder?
Ray Murphy
11:14
I think "replacement level" is a good description, unfortunately. Obviously the loss of C eligibility is the headline here. But the plate skills haven't really shown any growth at age 27... notably his HctX regression is troubling. As an OF, the 15 HR/15 SB profile just isn't as interesting in this environment where SB are so abundant.
Herb Scoresheet
11:15
(NL roto)  We'll obviously know more next spring, but in the meantime do you think any of these guys are likely to get Saves in 2024:  Harvey (Was), Ginkel (Ariz) or Dominguez (Phil)?  I'll only have room to keep one.  Thanks.
Ray Murphy
11:15
If you can only keep one, Harvey would be my clear choice.
Greg
11:16
Setting my Scoresheet playoff lineup.  Praying that Eovaldi makes it back in time for the playoffs.  In case he doesn't,  who'd you rather have - Lynn or Maeda?
Ray Murphy
11:16
Sounds like you might get Eovaldi. Frankly, given their YTD ERAs and how much weight Scoresheet places on those in the playoffs, you really can't put either Maeda or Lynn on your playoff card.
don
11:18
Do you think Paxton will turn it around,would you go with Paxton or I can start Santos - closer for White Sox, second place on the line need saves and wins.
Ray Murphy
11:18
Paxton just looks to be out of gas. I'd go to Santos for sure.
Koz
11:20
Good morning, thanks for the chat.  Have we been witness to the emergence of Kyle Bradish as a bonafide #2 starter?
Ray Murphy
11:20
That might be a bit of hyperbole, but it's not that far off. I'd say the emergence is more "decent skills + great ballpark and team context". I'd rather see more K's and SwK to call him a #2, but he's certainly got an effective formula as-is.
Koz
11:21
Injury update on Joe Musgrove?  What are the odds that he comes back this season considering the Padres aren't in contention anymore...
Ray Murphy
11:21
Yeah, the calendar is working against him at this point. Best case might be the old "token start or two at the end of the month, just to prove he's healthy heading into the offseason".
Doctor horrible
11:21
in a tight battle for first place.  For this week - Josh Bell or Verdugo for my DH (worried about his hamstring). Thanks
Ray Murphy
11:22
Verdugo said he thinks it's only a couple of days. But that obviously can change. I'd take the healthy guy for this week.
Lou
11:25
Deep NL keeper league. FAAB pool includes Emmanuel Rivera, who rightfully will cost nothing. Does he have one more chance in ARIZ in 2024 or has the clock run out? Popular breakout target who fizzled this year...
Ray Murphy
11:25
Certainly don't think he's going to get handed a wide-open job next year after this flameout, he's probably going to be one of those guys waiting for injury to create an opportunity for him... in ARI or elsewhere. There are probably other guys like that on your waiver wire too. I wouldn't think Rivera would stand out in that pool.
Will
11:26
4x4 AL only ROS reese olson vs jhony Brito..Gabriel Arias vs P Meadows Pinto vs Fermin and Pivetta vs Taj Bradly thank you
Ray Murphy
11:26
We're in "anything can happen" season here, these are mostly coin flips. But give me Olson, Meadows, Fermin, and Bradley.
Mugghead
11:28
Thanks for taking the time to do this, Ray. I made it to the second week of playoffs in my H2H Points League. Currently have Burger at 1B, but need to make a decision on Naylor now that he's off IL. I view them as being pretty comparable ROS, with the edge going to Naylor this week bc he plays 7 games. Any thoughts on which one I should drop?
Ray Murphy
11:28
Normally I'd favor the extra games, but... Naylor's not likely to go 7 straight just off the IL, and Burger gets 3 lefties, which is where he mashes. I'd probably stick with Burger.
Sasha
11:32
Ray! Thanks for sticking with us during the league playoffs period. A have a few quick-hitters for you.

1) Who do you like better in dynasty? Jonah Heim or Alejandro Kirk?

2) Rengifo or Adames ROS?

3) Your gut: Does Matt McLain factor into the regular season? Does Wander ever play in the MLB again?
Ray Murphy
11:32
  1. I need to take a deep dive this winter on what went wrong with Kirk this year, but I'd take Heim right now.
  2. Rengifo's red-hot, that's what you have to ride at this time of year.
  3. Reds have so many pieces, they don't need to rush McLain. Wander... I've got no idea what WILL happen, but in a couple of places where I have him on dynasty rosters, I'm planning as if he's gone forever. Not cutting him, of course, but not counting on him at all in forecasting my roster, contention timelines, etc.
Guest
11:33
What do you expect from Colt Keith in 2024?
Ray Murphy
11:33
Save this one for next week when Brent is back. I'm not enough of a prospect guy to have an opinion.
Spahn and Sain, redux
11:34
Hi Ray, and Happy labor Day.  What are your thoughts on O. Peraza and Vogelbach ROS in a 5x5.  Contributors in a deep league?
Ray Murphy
11:34
Big difference between the two is that you can easily see why the Yanks would play Peraza a lot this month, but I'm not sure why the Mets would keep playing Vogelbach. Doesn't mean either/both will hit, but opportunity should favor Peraza.
Michael W
11:41
Good Morning Ray!
In a 5x5 10 team Dynasty League where you can keep everyone.  Building for the future and have some keeper questions for 2024:
  1. What's your ranking for these OF and will probably need to drop 2 for 2024: J. Walker, N Jones, T. O'Neill, H. Davis (will he ever catch?), J Duran, J Kelenic, A. Kirilloff
  2. 2B question: Z. Gelof, R Mauricio.  Which to hold?  Hold both? Drop 1 and pick up Julien?
  3. Does Correa bounce back next year and can be picked up at a huge discount?
Ray Murphy
11:41
1. I think Davis finds his way to catching eventually. I'd hate to drop any of these guys, though I get the constraints of a 10-team league. Maybe Kirilloff with never be healthy?
2. Pretty nice edge to Gelof right now given that he's already shown he can handle the transition to MLB. We rate Mauricio with the higher ceiling, and that matters in a 10-teamer, but I don't think I could just drop Gelof. Time to explore a trade?

Correa-he's not this bad, but I think the only think you can for sure count on next year in terms of rebound is some BABIP regression (to the good). All of these are true: he's never hit 30 HR in a season, he hasn't hit .300 since 2017. The 2021-22 version: .270 BA, 25 HR, is probably the "if he's healthy" upside at this point.
Ray Murphy
11:42
OK, I'm going to wrap a bit early today and go hit the BBQ. Good luck to everyone grinding down the stretch... Brent will be back here next Monday.
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