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Sept 26 BHQ Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:02
Should we chat next Monday?
Yes (75% | 9 votes)
 
No (25% | 3 votes)
 
Total Votes: 12
12:03
Hey all! Wasn't sure how the late-season volume would hold up, but looks like we're doing pretty good with questions here at T minus 10 days in the season. Thanks for coming out ... just put up a poll on whether you'd use a chat next Monday with three days left. Give that a vote when you can.
OK, let's get to these questions ...
RK
12:06
Hi Brent. 5X5 H2H league with OBP instead of AVG. I'm in the finals, and my roster is full of Diamondbacks (Rojas, Walker, and Varsho) who have only 8 games left, and Rojas often sits against lefties. Should I cut Rojas for Oswaldo Cabrera, who has 10 games left (but unfortunately almost all against RHP, and he hits lefties better so far in a small sample)? I could cut Grissom or Nick Gordon instead, but they each have nine games left (although Henderson sits about once a week). Or I could sit tight and save my two remaining roster moves until later in the week. . . .
Brent Hershey
12:06
I think I'd sit tight, though agree that that ARI 2-gamer vs. HOU (which is accounting for the light ARI sched) is tempting. But they've clearly enjoyed playing spoiler the past few weeks... I'd roll w/ them for now. Good luck!
HarrytheK
12:08
Thoughts on Matt Brash as a keeper in deep dynasty that counts saves and holds as separate categories?
Brent Hershey
12:08
A no-doubt keeper for me; in fact that's probably the perfect format to match his skill set and SEA usage patterns. Clear he's a bullpen arm, and as long as Servias and crew are doing the matchup thing, gotta think he'll be involved in 2023 at least.
HarrytheK
12:11
Please rank keepers in QS league: Montas, Eovaldi, Taillon, Stroman, J. Gray, Megill. Have spots for 3-4.
Brent Hershey
12:11
Gray for sure, then Montas and Eovaldi (though I'm curious where he lands). Might take an upside shot on Megill at that point for your #4, though if you want to play it safer, probably Taillon>Stroman for me, though those two are close.
Koz
12:17
Do you guys at BaseballHQ keep track of the best/worst differences between ERA and xERA of all the years you've been in business?  Just curious if Luke Weaver is having one of the top-5 unluckiest seasons of all time, haha.   At what point is he to blame for such a huge discrepancy between his xERA and what his real ERA is?
Brent Hershey
12:17
We don't have anything quite formalized like that, those Javier Vazquez has entered the chat (along with <squints> Dave Bush). Weaver's gap is partially due to only 30 IP, making the actual stats are far more volatile. It's not all this, but 47/60 hit/strand rates are yes, off the charts nasty. BUT ... his BPV (a one-shot number reflecting skills) is spot on for the past three seasons. Given his role question, org switch, and age, I'm not sure I'd bet heavily on a rebound in 2023 ... but still stands that yes, he's endured some horrible luck in 2022.
Guest
12:21
Can you help me plan my Pujols usage for the rest of season? It's a daily transactions NL-only 5x5 league. I need HR, SB and BA desperately, with Runs also important. (Obviously, he won't help in SB.)

1. Is he going to start against many RHP, or will they rest him? Four of his next 5 games are scheduled against RHP, while the fifth is against a TBD PIT starter.

2. Can we assume he starts against all LHP?  If so, I'll likely start him against any of them.
When STL faces a RHP, I might bench him that day.  I'll play matchups, but FYI my other bench choices are likely Naquin, M. Rojas, Cron (when outside of Coors) or J. Turner.  Probably need to play 2-3 others when I bench Pujols against RHP.
Brent Hershey
12:21
My hunch is that he doesn't get too many starts ROS against RHP now that 700 is secure, and yes, since they'll want to keep everyone sharp for the playoffs, makes sense that they'd put him in against lefties. Seems like Cron and J Turner would be adequate replacements in general; perhaps the others depending on their matchups. Good luck!
Rick
12:22
Grandal has had a very disappointing year and will be 34 next year. Think he bounces back next year and hits at least.240 w/20+ homeruns or is he at the end of the road?
Brent Hershey
12:22
Think he bounces back some, though 240/20 might be asking a lot. The injuries seem to becoming more frequent ....
Eddie
12:26
Which position do you think T Story will play?  2B or SS?  Do you think of him as a formidable fantasy player....or has he lost his luster from his Colorado days?
Brent Hershey
12:26
Xander dependent. Seems like X will opt out and Story is the natural replacement if the Sox don't get into the Correa or Turner sweepstakes. And if they do, then Story likely remains at 2B. (Pos eligibility note - Story will start 2023 as 2B-only eligible in most leagues.)
And yes, I still see him as a formidable fantasy player. 29 years old, in a new location that is also hitter friendly. Think the injuries had a big part in the down year; he showed a nice stretch in mid-season and I feel like 2023 will be better overall.
Michael
12:28
Roll with Roansy or Freddy Peralta this last time around? I need Ks and Qs, without either one blowing up. Who's less risky, Contreras vs Red today or Freddy who I'm not sure when his turn will be?
Brent Hershey
12:28
Our model likes Roansy this week, though his 2d start is a bit more dicey. Peralta certainly very unlikely to get you a W, given he only went 2 innings yesterday.
Bob
12:29
Which two would you keep next year from among Tucker, Witt Jr., Cole and Strider?
Brent Hershey
12:29
Probably Witt Jr and Strider. Cole will be primed for a bounce-back, though age is creeping in. Go youth with this choice.
Jeffrey
12:36
Happy Monday, Brent! I can't believe how quickly the season has gone by. Thanks for making it so much more fun.

I want to quickly talk about the Braves young players. Michael Harris II and Vaughn Grissom. Who saw this coming this year? And should both these guys be top targets next season?

Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:36
If anyone tries to convince you they saw this coming THIS SEASON, I'm very skeptical. Myself and others on the BHQ minors team saw Harris in 2021 and Grissom earlier this year, and had them pegged for long-term success and fantasy relevance for sure. But the rate at which they became fantasy forces was a complete surprise. Kudos to the Braves for making what seemed like a risky call and trusting these guys to produce as they did at the MLB level.
For next year, I'm going to trust Harris more than Grissom, largely b/c I think Harris' spot in the lineup is more cemented. He's their everyday CFer, and has proven the hit/power/speed tools are all there. I think it's likely he moves up in the lineup as well as early as 2023.
To me, Grissom's spot depends more on team construction and offseason decisions. If Swanson walks, do the Braves trust him at SS? Do they throw him into the LF mix? Given ATL's track record here, I know that I'll be paying attention to their offseason moves.
Go Twins!
12:40
Brent ... are you a Nick Gordon believer? Is he another example of a post-hype prospect? Should dynasty team owners cut him after he wins them the league or should we hang on?

You're the best!!
Brent Hershey
12:40
Welp, I'm a Nick Gordon believer for the rest of the season for sure. There are ways in which his future value is similar to Grissom -- can move around on the diamond, but has he convinced the front office that they can give him a spot to call his own? Again, an offseason situation to watch. His improvement as a hitter is obvious, but how much he plays is going to ultimately determine his longer-term fantasy value (esp in dynasty leagues). In a dynasty, assuming your keep lists are long, I'd probably lean towards keeping him, as the multi-pos eligibility will come in handy. Though right now,  he's not a cornerstone type for me.
Michael
12:42
Hi Brent, this week only ,NL only.  Most important categories are runs,avg,wins,k’s and ratio. One pick up- I know it’s a crapshoot, Bae, de La Cruz,vierling, or grove on dodgers? Thanks for a great season.
Brent Hershey
12:42
Grove slightly over de la Cruz. Good luck!
Will
12:43
Brent, thank you for all the chats!
Brent Hershey
12:43
My pleasure. SPOILER ALERT: Mid-chat poll says you're going to get one more next week.
Beano
12:48
THanks again for all of these chats! NL 10 team 5x5. I might be able to get one last FAAB in tonight - Bae, Ozuna or Montero? which one will be more valuable in 2023?

Pitching: Do I want to sit any of these for the final week: P Lopez. B Falter. Darvish Musgrove WEsneski L Ortiz Carrasco  RP: A Diaz  B Hughes. I could reserve one and activate S Dominguez...tough call eh?
Brent Hershey
12:48
A) Bae for 2023; competition will be fierce, but ... bags. Montero in COL a close second, though have not shown they can incorporate young players yet.
B) Depends how bad you need to take save shots. Dominguez pitched better; the 7G means MAYBE he gets a save shot, but I'd have him third on that RP list. Perhaps you sit him for Lopez; think I'd leave the other starters alone. Close call; sitting tight might be the best.
KC
12:51
With the Royals front-office shakeup, they will likely be making lots of changes in the offseason. What's the 2023 outlook for Nate Eaton? He's been a flash at the end of 2022.
Brent Hershey
12:51
Totally under the radar prospect who has impressed in September. Versatility is good; but wonder about the lack of pedigree given the other more high-profile guys there. 3B seems the most likely spot he could claim time in 2023. Another offseason circumstance to watch.
KC-2
12:51
2nd question for end-of-season: Is there hope for 2023 for Jose Berrios?
Brent Hershey
12:53
Depends on your definition of hope. I worry about K, SwK, and HR allowed all trending the wrong way. Still 28, though, and will be much cheaper to find out next season.
Porky
12:56
Overly Broad Question of the Day (sorry):  Deep AL-Only Keeper League (12-team, 3 RES, 7 IL spots, 4x4 Roto) -- given how thin the FA pool is, are there any deep targets you have on your radar for (i) ROS or (ii) as a Keeper flier for next year (minimum FAAB bids are $10, so no $1 Keepers)?  Love your work. Thanks for another great season of content.
Brent Hershey
12:56
Yeah, need some examples to rank since OBQDs are near-impossible to answer in this setting. I will say, though, that I'd think it's very very unlikely that you'd find a $10 keeper in the FA pool now, unless it's some sort of more veteran injured player who was dropped. Thanks for the kind words!
Sam
12:57
How legit do you think Bryan Da Le Cruz is? The power and line drive stroke look great right now.
Brent Hershey
12:57
Took at shot on him about a month ago in a league or two b/c of outstanding (but small sample) Statcast standout metrics. Didn't last more than a week or two on my roster. So ... this spurt doesn't surprise me. Opps abound in MIA, and maybe a regime switch will be good? I'm intrigued.
Steve
12:59
Is Luis Ortiz (Pittsburg) the real deal?
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