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September14 2020 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:03
Caaa-runch time, here we are! Just two weeks left in the crazy sprint season; let's work it out together this afternoon. Thanks for showing, remember that league context helps me give an informed opinion. We can talk rest of season, keeper/offseason questions; prospecty stuff ... your choice! Let's get to it ...
Dave
12:07
Hi Brent- points league question- 2 start Dunning (vs MIN, @ CIN) or 1 start Plesac (@DET)?  Thanks for all of the great advice!
Brent Hershey
12:07
Appreciate the kind words ... think I'd go Dunning here; especially in a points lg. Yeah, Plesac solid option via our ratings @DET this week, but that 2-starter for DD—even with that lower-rated late week grade @ CINCY -- is worth it. DD pitching better than expected recently.
The Koz
12:13
Thank you for taking the time to answer our questions.  Encouraged by "El Capitan" Kirk's debut.  Everyone was talking about his hitting and his exit velocity on his base hit...but I'm interested on how he did defensively, and what are your thoughts about him being able to stick behind the dish.
Brent Hershey
12:13
Yes, that's the key to his long-term fantasy value -- whether he can stay behind the plate. We have him topping out as a reserve CA with some work needed with his glove. But it's also a tough eval since the highest experience he's gotten has been in High-A ball. So, jury is still out. My hunch is that he'd go back to high minors in 2021 for more work there.
Jeff
12:21
HQ subscriber, love what you guys do. In AL-only league with a tight saves race. What closers do you foresee in the last 2 weeks in Tor and LAA? Is Giles ready or not? Is Andriese the new closer? Thanks.
Brent Hershey
12:21
Thanks for your support of the website, especially through this wacky season! We've got some good stuff coming up that we'll announce soon; looking forward to 2021 and beyond.
But yeah ... trying to ascertain what will happen with saves for last 2 weeks is quite the task. I'm kinda torn on Giles ROS, just b/c in a best case they'd probably like to ease him back in, and there's just not time. Dolis seems to be the guy over the past week ... but his history isn't really conducive to a strong-throated recommendation. If Romano had stayed healthy and consistent, they would have probably stayed with him ... but for now, I wouldn't be surprised if Giles gets some looks. Time will tell whether that's good or bad.
In LAA  ... putting him in back-to-back save opps and having him convert within that pen sure seems to count for something. But the fact that his velo is down a full tick from 2019; while Ks down and BBs up ... let's just say that doesn't really inspire confidence. But, has the job it seems for now.
Doctor Horrible
12:27
HI! Thanks for doing this - mixed league 5x5, I need two of these three pitchers this week - whom should I sit: Morton, Dobnak or  Musgrove - I know not great options, but my other pitchers are much better!!!  Thanks.
Brent Hershey
12:27
I'd sit Dobnak; he gets the worst single rating of those four starts (Musgrove x2), and that Sox lineup at home seems pretty formidable. Not a huge Musgrove fan at the moment, but gets 1 negative rated start @CIN plus one positive one vSTL so think I'd prefer that. Morton has a strong rating heading into this start at BAL, he's a def play.
For those unacquainted, at BaseballHQ.com we have a daily SP matchups tool that has a solid history of projecting results. Very helpful for both setting weekly and daily pitching lineups; that's where these ratings are coming from.
Ray
12:34
Hi Brent: Need a DH for weekly points league from JDM, Grossman, Bichette, Frazier, or Walsh. I am worried about JD Mart and unsure about Bichette's playing time. Is Grossman the play? Also, would you bench EE to get Walsh into the lineup at 1B?
Brent Hershey
12:34
Boy, you're not kidding with JDM; I have him in one points league and he's certainly not been near what I expected. I think even with coming off injury, Bichette is the best producer here by far and I'd take the PT risk and pop him in. Assuming Clint, I'm still a Frazier fan; both he and Walsh face yummy pitching matchups for them this week so they are worth considering, but still Bichette comes out on top for me in Q1 (though Grossman has been fantastic and also faces some questionable pitching).
EE/Walsh is interesting, for sure. Seems like Walsh has been getting more PT there in LAA. Might be a sneaky play over EE this week.
Guest
12:40
Hi Brent.  In an OBP league, stick with Clint Frazier despite fewer remaining games and imminent returns of Stanton and Judge, or pick up Bader or O'Neill for the Cards' packed schedule?  Also, Jared Walsh CT% is 84%, with power.  Has he closed the holes in his swing, or SSS mirage?  Thanks!
Brent Hershey
12:40
#CommonThemes, I see ... I'd stick with C Frazier over Bader/O'Neill, again b/c I feel Frazier is the superior player. There are times I would lean on a Bader/O'Neill type b/c of all those games, but don't think this is it.
[Tangent: somewhat surprised that although STL has 10 "games" this week, it rarely gets mentioned that six of those in this case are 7-inning affairs. So given that, plus in no instance likely is a STL player going to play in all 10 games, are we really getting the AB advantage it looks like? Maybe ... I just think we need to consider that more.]
Walsh ... yes, some VG changes; still teeny sample. But changes better than not at this point. Could be worth taking a shot on ROS
Porcho Villa
12:45
Planning for next year. Which prospect do you like best for 2021 impact (5x5 OBP league): Andrew Vaughn, Julio Rodriguez, or Royce Lewis?
Brent Hershey
12:45
Yes, next year! Like Vaughn best for 2021 given his very advanced plate approach/strong OBP history/proximity to MLB. Could Rodriguez arrive mid-season and wow us all? Yes, on talent alone, but the injury this summer will likely slow down his timetable. He would be my long-term pick out of this trio FWIW, just feel Vaughn will out-produce him at MLB level in 2021. And I'm still high on Lewis, but there are some mechanical tweaks to still work on, and given the state of MIN's lineup, he'll likely have to prove "more" in a sense to get the call -- or else be forced up before he's truly ready. Good question, tho.
Guest
12:51
who gets the SV in St. Louis?  Alex Reyes?
Brent Hershey
12:51
Boy, that is a mess for sure, trying to figure out the back end of the Cards bullpen. There doesn't seem to be a strong candidate; we have Miller and Helsley as the most probable but /shrug emjoi/ ?  If Reyes (or anyone) looked sharper, I'd go with them, but Reyes' walks and inconsistency don't seem like they're a fit right now, given that he's not had a run of success with that role before. Which is why I'd lean Miller/Helsley if I absolutely had to.
Greg
12:55
Any hope for Reynoldo Lopez rest of season/next year or is he a lost cause?
Brent Hershey
12:55
He's not someone I trust right now for the rest of the season for sure -- so given the next two weeks, I'd say lost cause. BUT ... I still think he has the skills to be an MLB pitcher, though I'd like to see him converted to relief to see if that helps. Seems to have the stuff (+2 pitches) to thrive there. But that's something you try and see whether he's on board with, and give it an offseason to prepare that way. But the stuff if why for now, i'm holding on to him in dynasty/keeper leagues -- though depending what happens with the Sox staff over the winter (any trades; signings, etc), he may not make in on my spring keeper lists.
Frank
12:58
Do you see Burnes as a Top 40 5x5 pitcher next year?
Brent Hershey
12:58
Top 40? I'll be he sneaks into that range in 2021 drafts, given his 2020 gains. But will he return that value will be the more pertinent questions. He'll be one I'll look at closer at in the offseason; and is the example of what will make player evaluation off of the 2020 sprint so difficult; the lack of sample size we'll have with guys like this. Sure is hot right now, though.
Brent Hershey
1:00
Thanks again, folks ... didn't have as many questions, but tried to give some more context/analysis on those I did have. I'll be back next week, same time, with what might be our final chat for a while. Follow/bug me on Twitter @BrentHQ; all of our great content for winning your league is at BaseballHQ.com. Thanks; here's to a great baseball week for you all! Be safe!
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