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September21 2020 Chat
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Brent Hershey
12:01
Greets, folks! Looks like we're gonna make it through the end of the regular season, something I was admittedly skeptical of a couple months ago. A final reminder and shout-out to all those still dealing personally with the effects of the pandemic. All in this crazy time together and hope we can all do our part in quelling this a bit as we enter fall/winter.
12:02
But let's go for what you're here for and talk some fantasy baseball for the final time in the regular season. Got some good Qs lined up; continue to fire em at me during the next hour. Onward!
The Koz
12:08
Once again...thank you for your time.  Any hope for Rob Ray or Russ Stripling to be effective starters again in the future?  Are they having mechanical issues, or do you suppose it's in their head now?
Brent Hershey
12:08
Of course, these chats are great fun .. and I always come away with some new nugget that one of your questions has spawned.
I'm always hesitant to rush to the "it's in their head" response, so I'll stay to form and not go there now. With Ray, I just feel like he is what he is ... high strikeout, high walk guy who's control issues will keep him from upper tier. I admit I had some hope with his mechanical changes to his delivery this year, but it's also a great reminder that every situation is different. Giolito makes a similar change in 2019, and vaults into ace territory. Ray doesn't; just the way it goes. Stripling just doesn't look right; SwK way down, walks up. Still interested some, but he's not a young guy either
Rich
12:12
Hi Brent.  I traded Tatis Jr. and Profar for Albies and DeJong, because the Padres only play 5 games this week. Sensible, or an overreaction to the schedule?
Brent Hershey
12:12
Sorry to report that that's an overreaction for me. Tatis in 2020 has lifted himself into elite territory, the air in which he can do anything at anytime, and it's not surprising. Given how the year has gone, I want that on my squad even if there's tight category races elsewhere. Like Albies especially and pleasantly surprised at how well he's come back, but I personally wouldn't have parted with Jr. For your sake, hope I'm wrong .... good luck this week!
Jeff
12:20
Hi Brent. Last week of the season, those of us in close races looking for final intel edge. I'm in AL-only league. In years past, some stars sit during the last few games, and some SPs just throw a few innings. 2-part Q: 1) Any thoughts on batters or SPs who may get more opportunities this week? 2) Any sneaky sources of SB on AL waiver wire for the last week? Thanks.
Brent Hershey
12:20
You're not wrong, but these situations are so hard to predict. OAK with biggest divisional lead, but they already mix/match so much. Maybe Tony Kemp gets some extra time? Daulton Jeffries with another start or 2nd man in? TAM similar situation -- Randy Arozarena, Nate Lowe; Fleming?
For steals, maybe Brett Phillips; Daz Cameron, DeShields, W Castro? Again, good luck!
The Koz
12:22
Made an off season (scoresheet) dynasty NL only trade this past offseason and picked up Max Muncy... what do you suppose we can expect from Muncy for the next 3 years or so? I don't feel he deserves the sub Mendoza BA that he has been sporting for the majority of the year...
Brent Hershey
12:22
Ugh ... several of my single-year teams had Muncy as a low-end cornerstone, so I'm feeling this, too. Luckily, at least one was an OBP league, and he's been not as tankish there. Which says to me that maybe we do just give him a mulligan and expect a rebound for 2021. That's the way I'll be leaning at least for now. Maybe there's a hidden injury or something there.
Way Off Base
12:28
Mixed 5x5 -- I need 42 IP to make season IP requirement.  Will outings this week by Kershaw, Mahle, Woodruff (2) and Singer (2) be enough? Should I risk filling out the remaining five slots with Barnes, Iglesias, Dolis, Crichton and Foster, or should I put P.Lopez or Javier in, or cut one of those and pick up Bubic, who looks like the best bet this week in the pool?
Brent Hershey
12:28
Depends how much you want to sweat this week, lol. Seems like Kershaw is the only of that bunch who might see a shortened start at this point, but man that looks tight to me. I'd prob lean towards adding Bubic for ... I dunno, Crichton or Dolis? Seems like safest play to me.
DeepLeft
12:33
A big thank you to HQ and you for making the most of a horrid excuse for a season IMO, though it was baseball and you made it more entertaining.
Two weeks ago, I had 12 point lead in my 10Tm AL league. Now, I'm battling three teams for third, though only a couple points out of first. Injuries and poor performance (Cruz, Seager, Grichuk and others, inc. pitchers) over the last three weeks has done me in... along with the small denominators. As to the latter, I don't know what to do with this year's numbers in making projections..., I hope you guys at HQ are on it, because I'm going to be depending on you more than ever in 2021.
Brent Hershey
12:33
Appreciate the kind words, and here's the the small denominators working in your FAVOR during this final week. I mean, at least in my leagues, these things are tight, as we expected.
And yes, we've already had extensive discussions about how to best try and incorporate this year's stats into our various models, and what that means for 2021. I think we've hit on some good ideas and ways to present it, starting with the Forecaster process ... but that will also obv show up on the site as well. We'll continue to do our best to give YOU the tools and perspective you need to make your own decisions. On the one hand it's a daunting challenge ... on the other, we're approaching it like another problem to solve. I invite everyone else along in the journey. Hope like heck we can count on 162G in 2021!
Ricky
12:36
I am facing a difficult off-season decision in my roto keeper league. Do I keep Aaron Nola or Ketel Marte over Justin Verlander? I am competing (finished runner-up last year), and have Jacob deGrom and Walker Buehler as keepers. My offense is pretty good, with Alonso, Bregman, T. Turner, Betts and Yelich locked in already.
Brent Hershey
12:36
Yeah, I think you move on from JV given your options. Not what I would do in every case, but here I would just sub in Nola for him, go into 2021 with deG/Buehler/Nola and that offense. I'm likely going to be a bit skeptical of JV coming all the way back in 2022 at his age --- though I fully admit I counted him out once already and couldn't have been more wrong. But your team is built for now, you've got one bona-fide Cy Younger with 2 younger guys that have shown flashes. You or anyone else can take a shot on JV in 2022. Go win 2021 first.
Ron
12:41
Hi Brent. Thanks for another year, albeit abbreviated. We need one 3B in a weekly points league that rewards HR and RBI. Turner (6 games) is best player but his AB are risky if Dodgers choose to rest him. Moran (7 games) is steady.  Gyorko has most games (8) and seems to be playing every day.  Would you roll with Turner if you needed some upside?
Brent Hershey
12:41
You're welcome ... yeah, tough call here. Another factor is quality of opponent pitching for the week ... Between LA, PIT, MIL, we've got LA facing the weakest pitching staffs by a pretty good margin. I think that might tip the scales here, though I fully get the risk w/ Turner. The flip side is that given how he's just been coming back, they won't want to have him just sit, either, they'll want to keep him somewhat sharp. And so maybe he plays 5 of those 6 games or whatever. Feel like he's the best option from talent perspective, though realize Moran's gains. Would be down to those two for me.
Dave
12:49
Dunning and Deivi Garcia have pitched pretty well to date ( of course Garcia was blasted yesterday by the Boss) but the Forecaster is extremely negative on their forecast and value for the coming week.  Why is that? Garcia is -$40.  I realize rookie pitchers can be volatile but.........??
Brent Hershey
12:49
I'll try to make this a quick explanation, but it's important ... the forecast you're referencing is Garcia's proj from the beginning of the year, MINUS what he's done so far. So that ugly like this week is what's left over, prorated to his starts left (1). By this time of the year, it's not the best idea to be referring to that line to set expectations for his final start, especially since he's exceed our beginning of the year projection in rate stats already. (And this all is distorted more b/c of the short season).
Instead, if you look at our Matchups tool (8-day scan), you'll see Garcia with a sky-high rating for his outing this week -- that's taking into account what he's done so far, the specific opponent that he's facing (their strengths/weaknesses), and much more. It's a much better reflection of what's to come -- way, way more nuanced. Hope that helps you during this last week.
Guest
12:53
What's your take on Oscar Mercado? Last year was a fluke or this year?
Brent Hershey
12:53
Was def surprised by his 2019, but there were few red flags that it was a fluke. But things just fallen apart this year — K-ing a ton more; been BABIP'd big time. This year more likely a fluke for me, but can't predict a full rebound. Tho I'll likely have him in consideration as a late flyer in 2021; no more.
Doctor Horrible
12:54
Coming down to this: for my DH spot - Edwin or Braun.. I need power and RBIs...
Brent Hershey
12:54
Think I'd give Braun the slight edge; been playing better of late. Tough call for sure. Good luck!
Guest
12:56
any opinion about Genesis Cabrera this week? Does he get chances to close?
Brent Hershey
12:56
One that I've had an eye on since spring training. but small-sample skills have not been there. Feel like it's a pretty wild dart throw if you're looking for saves in the final week. Keeper league, though? I'm interested.
Bomber
12:59
Early thoughts on Tyler Mahle for next year?
Brent Hershey
12:59
Skills are there, and given that we put an UP: of 13 W, 3.60 ERA** in last year's book, I'd say we're still on board. Solid choice for 2021.
**actual 2020 ERA as of this writing: 3.57 (insert 2021 Baseball Forecaster promo)
ballsy
1:02
how big a set do you need to play Skubal for the 2 starts this week.. roto 5x5, in 2nd trying to catch 1st..
Brent Hershey
1:02
Depends on the alternatives, of course ... but he's not the worst 2-starter for sure and has looked better recently. Feel like with that you've said about your position, I'd feel worse if he was the difference and I sat him, than if I played him and struggled. Take the shot.
Dan
1:03
Great season's chats (better than the season!). I need a playoff bat to replace Realmuto. Belt has favorable home schedule and good L/R matchups. Worth a shot? Or Miguel Rojas who's lL/R matchups are not so good. Thanks Brent. Have a great offseason.
Brent Hershey
1:03
'Ppreciate that! I'd go with Belt and try to ride that season-long wave. Best wishes to you as well!
Dave
1:04
Start Corbin this or pickup Brault, Kremer, or Turnbull? Thanks Brent.
Brent Hershey
1:04
We've got Corbin as a solid strong start; he's the best pitcher here. Keep him.
Guest
1:06
Nate Lowe, Dominic Smith, Jared Walsh?  Who ya going with this week
Brent Hershey
1:06
Smith. Pedigree + year-long track record (well, OK, 2 months -- but more than the others).
Katman
1:08
To close out a year that should be banished to the dustbins of history, have wins, ERA and WHIP at stake, I have the execrable Jon Lester with two starts -- at Pittsburgh and at White Sox.
Worth the upside of wins vs. the downside of the ratios?
Brent Hershey
1:08
Really tough for me to count on Lester. Think I'd pass.
Beano
1:10
I'm gonna miss these chats! I appreciate you and HQ. I have a  bit of FAAB left. I am thinking of bidding on Vogelbach to get him next hear for $1 or $2. I'd have to waive DejJong and his topper rights, but I think it may be a wise move & give me more RBI/HR points this week.What thinkest thou?
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