JotCast | The Dynasty Guru Chat with Jesse Roche | 1/31/2018

The Dynasty Guru Chat with Jesse Roche

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Jesse Roche

11:00

Good morning, everyone! This is my very first chat for The Dynasty Guru!

Earlier this morning, TDG released the 2018 Top 32 Fantasy Second Base Prospects: https://thedynastyguru.com/2018/01/31/2018-top-32-fantasy-second-base-...

Over the past 2 weeks, both the top catcher and first base prospects were also published.

Next up, the top third base prospects is set to publish on Saturday!

11:01

Now, let’s get to the questions!

Gus Chiggins

11:01

Is an OPS league enough to swing the #1 prospect from Acuna to Vlad Jr?

Jesse Roche

11:01

Ronald Acuna and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. are neck-and-neck for the top hitting prospect in dynasty leagues, regardless of format. I value them similarly, but I slightly prefer Acuna, even in a 5x5 OPS league. Acuna is a true 5 category stud. Already, ZiPS projects a crazy 21/33 season from Acuna, on the back of 51 stolen base attempts. Of course, if Acuna is only succeeding in 64% of stolen bases, you would have to wonder why the Braves would continue to let him run. It is worth noting Acuna did get caught 20 times last year and he does not have elite speed.

11:02

Recently, both Baseball America and MLB.com assigned an unheard of 80-grade to Vlad, Jr.’s hit tool. I really have difficulty buying an 80-grade for his hit. In fact, I would even argue Acuna’s hit tool is superior to Vlad, Jr.’s! Acuna is a line drive factory with power to all fields. Vlad, Jr. is quite pull-heavy with almost strictly pull-side power. Vlad, Jr. is damn impressive, dominating the FSL at just 18 and walking (14.4%) more than he struck out (11.8%), but the buzz he is receiving is a little overboard right now. Final argument for Acuna: he is set to debut, and be here to stay, at some point this year.

11:03

My peak projections for Vlad, Jr. and Acuna are as follows:

Vlad, Jr.: .300/.390/.530, 30-35 home runs
Acuna: .290/.340/.470, 20-25 home runs, 20-25 stolen bases

11:04

As you might be able to tell, I prepared some of these answers before 11 am

It'll start to slow down shortly, but to the next question!

Ryan

11:04

Albies or Kingery at 2B in a dynasty league?

Jesse Roche

11:05

I prefer Ozzie Albies to Scott Kingery in dynasty leagues. At just 20 years old, between Triple-A and the majors, Albies went 15/29. As I detail in the 2018 Top 32 Fantasy Second Base Prospects, Kingery is unlikely to hit for the kind of power he exhibited in Double-A last year. His second half ISO of .122 is closer to reality than his first half .307. Can Kingery go 15/30? Yes. However, Kingery is also almost 24, is not on the 40-man roster, and unlikely to contribute much at the MLB level in 2018. Albies, meanwhile, just turned 21 and is atop a young and improving Braves lineup.

11:06

Ryan has a mountain of questions, and I will try to get to them all, but I will take turns with other readers first. Sharing is caring!

Alex

11:06

In a shallow dynasty, are you taking Luis Castillo or Forrest Whitley? Fully expect to only get one. Other options are Hoskins and Bo Bichette but have a pretty locked up offensive core

Jesse Roche

11:10

I always lean offense, especially in shallow leagues. I would take Hoskins in a heartbeat out of those options. It is a closer call between Castillo, Whitley, and Bichette. If you can afford to wait on Whitley or Bichette, I prefer them both to Castillo. If you need immediate production, then Castillo is your man. Between Whitley and Bichette, I actually prefer Whitley. He could be the rare and elusive No. 1 starter. Bichette is a pure hitter if there ever was one, but it is uncertain how his speed and power will play.

Majnun

11:10

Moncada seems to get a lot of hype as a base stealer, but if I recall he was originally supposed to be more of a power guy. I hear stuff like a peak of 20-40... I don't believe those steals numbers but I believe in more power, am I wrong? The minor league steal numbers seem overblown.

Jesse Roche

11:15

It depends on what power you expect. Moncada showed some of it last year (.181 ISO - approx league-average for fantasy purposes) with 8 home runs in 231 plate appearance. Over a full year, that is easy 20 home runs. He certainly still has the peak 20-40 potential, but I am more included to think peak 30-20. Grades of 60+ on his power still ring true. He hits the ball hard to all fields. The big question is whether projections regarding his hit tool (60) will follow through. I have my doubts. Lots and lots of swing and miss in his game.

Ron

11:15

Should I finally move on from Gausman. Have him in a 20 team deep dynasty. Was offered Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson and Woodruff for Gausman, Glasnow and a pick.

Jesse Roche

11:20

I will tackle each dilemma, one at a time. First, you should not give up on Gausman. Do you remember his second half last year? He was electric! With a 3.41 ERA, 1.2 WHIP and 96 Ks in 89 2/3 IP. He still brings the heat (95 mph average), with a slider/splitter mix. Unfortunately, he never developed his change up. Pitching in Camden Yards and the AL East certainly does not help. I do still like him.

11:24

Second, Riley/Swanson/Woodruff for Gausman/Glasnow/Pick. Both Swanson and Glasnow lost their sheen after disastrous seasons. I do still prefer Swanson to Glasnow (I own Glasnow in dynasty. Sad face!). Riley, I like a lot. A write up will be posted on Saturday. Big power, improving defense, and consistent 2nd half domination. Only 20 years old. Add Woodruff to the mix, who is better than his Triple-A numbers suggest (Colorado Springs is hell for pitchers), and it becomes intriguing.

11:25

Trades always depend on league size and rules, but in a 16-team league, I would do it (depending on this elusive pick).

Ryan

11:26

I apologize again for the number of questions. I appreciate you considering them.

Jesse Roche

11:26

It is all good. The more questions, the merrier. I'll tackle another of yours now.

Ryan

11:26

What are your thoughts on Ryan Vilade? Is it for sure he ends up at 3rd?

Jesse Roche

11:26

I am a big fan of Vilade and TDG recently published a great article on him: https://thedynastyguru.com/2018/01/09/ryan-vilade-real-hidden-gem-rock...

11:27

He had an impressive debut in the hitter-friendly Pioneer League (so do not read everything into those numbers). What is most intriguing is his advanced discipline for an 18-year-old, walking 27 times (18.5%) in 33 games. He also hit line drives, with power, to all fields and had a ton of opposite field contact (45.8%). Very promising bat.

Vilade played every single game in the field at shortstop, despite being announced as a third baseman. The Rockies likely will continue to play Vilade at shortstop moving forward. For someone so young, he has good hands and instincts for the position. The big question is whether he has the athleticism and range for the position and, right now, I don’t think so. We’ll see.

I will be listing him as a shortstop, but I will not his ranking in my third base list.

*note

Jim

11:28

What can we reasonably expect from Ryan McMahon this year? Full time job for the entire season or should we expect some struggles? I love the idea of him hitting in Coors for a full year but the Rockies have a lot of young bats to find room for.

Jesse Roche

11:30

I really hope he earns/is given the full-time job, but I really doubt it. Rumors abound regarding the Rockies pursuit of an outfielder (sorry, David Dahl and Raimel Tapia) or a first baseman. Just recently the Rockies were linked to interest in Todd Frazier (imagine Frazier in Coors, yikes!). Last I looked, Ian Desmond is penciled in at BOTH 1B and RF for the Rockies. He can do it all!

11:32

I think a realistic outcome is McMahon makes the team, but as a bench bat, seeing time at 1B, 2B, and 3B (if they ever want to spell Arenado). The real problem is even if the Rockies do not sign another bat, Desmond could kick over to 1B and Dahl/Tapia could play RF. It is a cluster-f*ck situation. Someone is going to rise to the top, hopefully McMahon.

Brian

11:33

Leave one out for a dynasty: Bregman Hoskins Benintendi Devers Bellinger. Already have Rizzo Trout Machado.

Jesse Roche

11:37

So much depends on league size/rules, but in a 16-team league with normal roster configuration, I would leave out Hoskins. Bellinger is easily the top option for me. After him, I value Bregman and Benintendi similarly. They are easy keeps. It comes down to Hoskins and Devers. I personally prefer Devers. Youth (21 v. 25), pedigree (elite prospect), and upside win the day for me. It is certainly close and Hoskins was taken just 5 picks before Devers in TDGx2: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-1m_XF-AhUwFg-O3FzxVsfyAxgSeU3...

Ryan

11:39

In a dynasty league where you have a minor league roster of 22 guys, what are your thoughts on rostering a catcher? Waste of time, or no?

Jesse Roche

11:39

It likely depends on league size, but if the price is right, it is always worthwhile to consider rostering a catching prospect. Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras come from somewhere. I would just be wary of rostering the right one. Too many catching prospects just do not have enough upside to warrant the cost. When major outlets rank someone like Carson Kelly as a top 50 prospect, it is on the basis of his overall game (defense-heavy). That said, Kelly likely should be rostered in a 22-deep minors (even in a 12-team league). I would probably go as far as Alex Jackson in my rankings for up to 264 prospects, maybe consider Caratini, but more as a handcuff for Contreras owners.

Biggy

11:41

Okay, another one. Last keeper for a huge, 11 keeper team: Inciarte, Hader, Lester?

Jesse Roche

11:41

I am an attorney, so you will hear a lot of hedging. "It depends" is a constant part of my discourse. So . . .

11:44

It depends on who the other 10 keepers are, what the league size/rules are, who you anticipate will be available. Of those three, I would eliminate Hader. He is a middle reliever for the foreseeable future. Between Inciarte and Lester, I ever so slightly prefer Lester. Inciarte just does not move the needle enough for me. Of course, if you have a lot of starters lined up as keepers and no outfielders, maybe consider Inciarte. Braves lineup is on the up-swing.

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