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Eric A Longenhagen
12:02
Hi there, everyone. By now you probably know where the top 130 list is, so let's get right to this. Kiley will be along shortly.
Jared
12:02
Who are some potential high leverage RP’s in the upper minors, with big stuff? Eric (not sure who’s doing the chat) gave me a good list last year at this time that included Jose Alvarado.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:03
That list you're referring to was last year's Picks to Click article, and this year's version of it drops tomorrow.
Jackson
12:03
Swaggerty: is it his defense that puts him so high? Highest ranking I’ve seen from a publication.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:04
CF with speed and power, his tools belong there. You could argue the swing issues should force him down toward the other power/speed CFs with contact issues, but whose bat are you betting on improving, the new guy or someone like Monte Harrison who hasn't made much progress over several years?
Jim Bob Cooter
12:04
Why you guys so down on Franklin Perez? Is a lat injury now considered serious or something?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:05
Not on it's own, but that isn't exactly the only injury Perez has had and it isn't as if he's got #2 starter stuff and belong on there anyway. Healthy Perez is probably just a 50.
Jackson
12:06
Yordan Alvarez didn’t rank after being high in your mid season list. What sorcery did Keith Law whisper in Eric’s ear? But for real, that’s a huge swing. What do you see now that you didn’t eight months ago.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:08
We re-shuffled last year's final update a bit and sent it around to teams for feedback and they almost all said to move him down, that they had him in as a DH-only.
Nicky
12:08
Thanks for your work. Love the NotKATOHGraphs. Remembering the bust rate for pitchers is frightening.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:09
Thanks, I consider those more a conceptual work in progress that needs refinement rather than a finished product, but I do think it's useful to explain that, even within the same FV tier, these guys have varied possible outcomes. And I think the best way to show it is visually.
12:10
Somewhere on my phone I have the initial cocktail napkin drawing of the bar graph that I sent to Kiley. It's like two years old. Sean kicks ass and may it come to life.
Cosmo
12:10
More likely to crack the top 25 next season: Ronny Mauricio or Oneil Cruz?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:10
I'll say Cruz.
Carl
12:10
Which farm systems are poised to help their major league teams to a greater degree than prospect rankings would indicate? And why are the Brewers among them?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:12
Like this year? Yeah I could see Milwaukee. St. Louis is the first that came to mind, though.
Walter Sobchak
12:14
Which prospect would get the biggest FV bump if fences were moved in by 5 feet in all ballparks?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:15
That's probably an Eli-Ben Porat question since he's good at doing batted ball distance stuff
Jeb
12:15
The value of a 50FV prospect is more than $5M. So in the case of Jasson D, why weren’t the Yankees outbid? Others perhaps don’t think he is a 50? Yankees were willing to commit $5M when he was less than a 50? Something else?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:16
Pool space is hard-capped, it's not easy to just outspend when someone blows most/all of their pool on one guy.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:16
Kiley has arrived!
Bubbles
12:17
Is Kansas City's lack of representation in the Top 100 just a matter of a lot of talent with upside that you're not quite ready to make that jump with, or a lot of high floor/low ceiling types?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
They just have a lot of high probability or boom/bust 45 FVs types. Like, a lot. Their system isn't bad just because none of their guys are on here. We had Melendez around 70 on initial drafts and feedback said to move him down/off because of the K's.
Jay
12:18
Is the Kyle Hendricks comp looking more and more realistic for Paddack?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:18
No, Paddack's fastball is much harder.
Baloney Bologna
12:19
The profile of the Albies, Brujan... Marcano potentially type seems to be one that has flown under the radar... until the last couple of years. Any thoughts on why prospects with that profile tend to pop up out of a relative nowhere?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:20
Well, traditionally smaller guys have lesser tools and no power and there haven't been many that have been All-Star caliber players. With various advancements like bats, ball, swings, strength training, etc. it gives them a chance to become real players. Probably also doesn't hurt to have shorter levers when everyone is throwing 95
DJ Tanner
12:20
With all the hype on Marco Luciano, even though he is not on this list, is it basically he needs to hit a ball in a pro league consistently and he immediately jumps on?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:20
I just wanna see more of him at shortstop to be confident he stays there, because the int'l amateur side didn't think he would. He'll be a 45+ FV on the Giants list.
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
12:21
Does the announcement that McKay will now be on a six day schedule with 1 pitching, 4 DH, one off change anything for him?
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:22
Not really, we wrote week ago in his report that it felt like an Ohtani-type outcome where he's a rotation starter with a DH fit. If he can hit those 60 hit/power projections from the draft, he wouldn't be much worse than Ohtani.
The Kid
12:22
What should we make of the super low spin rate on Ian Anderson's curveball? Will it appear more hittable as he climbs the minors. Genuinely curious as is well below breaking ball spin rates of most major leaguers/top prospects.
Eric A Longenhagen
12:22
I wouldn't worry about it too much. It's been a well-regarded pitch, visually, for his entire career and it is effective against hitters. He may be a high spin-efficiency guy and it has tumble because of that. We really don't know.
Zihuatanejo
12:23
There seems to be a lot of volatility in projections for Verdugo.  Is the main issue for him power projection or something else?
Jim Bob Cooter
12:24
So JB Bukauskas is ranked nearly 40 spots lower than Corbin Martin despite having better stuff (literally) across the board and the same command grade? I don't get it
Eric A Longenhagen
12:24
How confident are you that Buk's stuff holds with a starter's workload the way Martin's does? His stuff was down late during his junior year at UNC, his delivery is more violent. It's a confidence issue, not stuff.
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:24
I think most scouts/analysts have him as about the same player going forward -- a right fielder than can fill in for CF in short stretches, raw power but more contact-based doubles guy -- but we've heard for years the makeup is below average and shaded him down for that reason in the past, we're just shading even more now that sources are more insistent that it could impact him reaching his potential and looking to other Dodgers prospects in deals. There's a reason he wasn't mentioned in the Realmuto stuff and Ruiz, Smith, May and Lux were.
Walter Sobchak
12:25
Does the likely addition of 15 new DH jobs meaningfully affect the way in which bat-only plodders will be evaluated?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:25
Yes and we actually got feedback that was like, "move down Alonso, Calhoun, Alvarez, etc UNLESS the universal DH is implemented."
AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:25
and Josh Naylor may be the biggest beneficiary since SD likes him and Hosmer ain't going anywhere
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