JotCast | Top 100 Prospects Chat

Top 100 Prospects Chat

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Kiley McDaniel

1:13

Marco Luciano is the leading candidate. Kevin Alcantara and Diego Cartaya are lurking behind him

Hans Crouse

1:13

Why don't you like me??

Eric A Longenhagen

1:13

I swear we do, and I dig your photorealistic tattoo

hans

1:13

If I'm looking for batters that make powerful contact, how would I sort the board? Kelenic seems like a standout in that cat, any other prospects fit this bill?

Kiley McDaniel

1:13

Raw power and hit tool mix is probably it?

1:14

I had a friend as if we would put exit velo on the board, but it's so hard to capture what a reader would want in one number that isn't just raw power

Bryce Machado

1:14

Simply scouting the statline, Mark Vientos of the Mets seemed to show everything you'd want to see from an 18-year-old in the Appy. Power and ability to control the strike zone were both there. Hoping he starts the season in Columbia, what does he need to do to make the leap into the top 50 in 2020? More of the same or is there something else you're looking to see if he improves on?

Kiley McDaniel

1:14

Improving on D and performing in a full season league is about all we need. Huge upside if the D comes around

One Mets source mentioned Nolan Arenado wasn't super different at this stage and that isn't totally wrong

Franch Friar

1:15

Which prospects did you "tweak" their distribution of outcomes the most?

Kiley McDaniel

1:15

The MLB-ready ones, like Danny Jansen or Brandon Lowe or Yusei Kikuchi. The odds they bust and don't put up a couple WAR seem incredibly low now and the baselines were 30-40%

Baloney Bologna

1:15

How much does health factor into your rankings? I am not thinking TJ type stuff, which clearly has a big impact on rank, but things such as Senzels vertigo stuff?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:15

TJ recovery rates are strong enough that we just move guys back based more on timeline rather than injury risk. So if Johnny Curveball and Luis Cambio have the exact same stuff, but Johnny is at Double A and Luis is in NYPL, we want Johnny. But if Johnny has a TJ in August and is out forever, by the time he comes back Luis will have a similar timeline to the bigs, so they should be pretty close.

Canned Peanuts

1:16

Is the release of the Aladdin trailer the reason for Will Smith dropping down the list?

Kiley McDaniel

1:16

it's not not the reason

Noah

1:16

Why the flip on Keibert v Will Smith. Last year FG was higher on Smith

Kiley McDaniel

1:16

it sounds like the dodgers were, as well. but performance and facing better pitching and development isn't always a linear thing

Redsfan

1:17

Why aren’t you guys higher on Jon India? What am I missing

Kiley McDaniel

1:17

you could argue there isn't a plus game tool there. could still be a 3-win guy, you'd just like to have more pro performance or tool upside to really shove a guy this early after being drafted

Jeff

1:17

Where is Christin Stewart?

Kiley McDaniel

1:18

The DH types really got crushed this year, and we also adjusted more than we have in the past for TJ guys as well. Evolution

CoCo

1:18

Does Spencer Howard have what it takes from a 'stuff' perspective to be a top 20 prospect at the end of this year?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:18

Stuff is fine, fastball command is what gets him into the 60 FV tier

Chris S

1:18

Carter Kieboom can't possibly be a shortstop right? Right?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:18

probably not, but i thought that about DeJong, and Semien, and Daniel Robertson, and kinda about Correa and Seager. The position is changing.

Mike

1:19

holy crap! that list is fantastic. You two friggin killed it. I can't even take other prospect lists seriously anymore. thank you

Eric A Longenhagen

1:19

that's kinda harsh and other folks do a good job too, but thanks

John Lavigne

1:19

For how long do you think the list is reliable? If I'm analyzing trades this May based on the rankings here, is it likely I've missed important new data?

Kiley McDaniel

1:20

We plan to update it in season every month or so, so I'd like to think any big movers will be adjusted by then. But, also, you're probably fine to use this then

Draftnik

1:20

How close was Luis Garcia (Phillies) to making it?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:20

very close. remember, this is just a ranking of all the 50 or better FV guys, so anyone on a team list who is a 45 or 45+ is very close.

Nick Yost

1:21

But why male models?

Josh

1:21

How close was Nathaniel Lowe to cracking the top 100 and when do you see him taking over at 1st base for the Rays?

Kiley McDaniel

1:22

Also a 45+ that's in the next 30 or so names

Ginny

1:22

If you were a GM, who would you rather have in your franchise - Jesus Luzardo or Julio Urias?

Eric A Longenhagen

1:22

Damn, that's a great question. I suppose Urias' medical stuff is a little scarier than Luzardo's TJ, and they have comparable stuff/build/polish.

Mike Maroth

1:22

Without ruining it, are there guys from the "pick to click" list that were on it last year?

Kiley McDaniel

1:22

I'm sure there will be a few repeats

Eric A Longenhagen

1:23

Wander Javier!

Josh Ock

1:23

With 30 DHs am I a viable regular?

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