JotCast | Top 50 Free Agents Chat

Top 50 Free Agents Chat

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Ben Clemens

12:00

Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Let's just get going

John Mozeliak

12:00

So I should jump the market for Sonny Gray right? Get one starter out of the way, what do I need to offer? 4 years for $90?

Ben Clemens

12:01

I actually don't love this plan, there's less benefit to 'jumping' a market when you're trying to get more than one person

and also, the cardinals should be seeking value if they're trying to accomplish their stated goals, which are a)keeping payroll constant and b)adding good starting pitching

12:02

overshooting the market to get your guy works a lot better when you only need one guy

Dylan

12:02

I feel as though most of the projections for Sonny Gray have been really light compared to his recent + overall production and what guys have been getting on the market in the past couple seasons.

Guys like Chris Bassitt with considerably less track record are getting 60+ despite being a similar age as Gray, and Gray enters this FA period as one of the top 5-10 pitchers of the 2023 season. Is there a disconnect because of the up-and-down nature of his career? I feel like 100m is a lot more likely than him getting under 70, even at age 34.

Ben Clemens

12:02

I'm not sure I agree with the over 100/under 70 thing here but I would be surprised if Gray gets less than 70 for sure

I think length will be what holds his deal back from 100, not AAV

I agree that his AAV's are kinda low

Jon

12:02

Braves need pitching. The FA pitching options are suspect at best. Thoughts on what they should do?

Ben Clemens

12:03

The FA pitching options are great!

They should try to sign some of these great #2 starters to pair with Fried and Strider

are any of them from Georgia? That'd help

Nola's from the south, close enough perhaps

mac

12:03

bellinger feels like the most terrifying fool's gold free agent in years. how much do you make of his struggles to hit high velo in 2023? against pitches 96mph+, he hit .189 with a .250 xWOBA. petriello mentioned on twitter that other nl central teams had picked up on it by the later part of the season. what % chance is there that whatever team signs him is regretting it by june?

Ben Clemens

12:04

I would not sign Bellinger. I thought about having him below all the pitchers in the top 10, since this is a my personal preference list

But in the end I think he's kind of a necessary risk for teams that want to add an impact position player

I think the days of him being an impact bat are probably gone, but a plus hitter with great CF defense at his age is going to draw a lot of dough

Wireless Joe Jackson

12:04

Bellinger seems like the most polarizing FA this year. What kind of deal would you personally be comfortable giving him? He seems ripe for one of the fancy schmancy ones with both team and player options.

Ben Clemens

12:05

I mean I just wouldn't sign him, I'm lower on him than the high bidder is bound to be

but yeah, I think one of those transformer type deals is how I'd approach it. I love those Wacha/Martinez Padres deals, even if they ended up just being short deals instead of fancy ones

M’s Fan

12:05

I’ve seen some rumors about the M’s signing an upper tier starter and trading a young controllable pitcher for hitting? Does this make sense? Snell, Montgomery, Nola make sense in this instance?

Ben Clemens

12:06

I'd be surprised if they did that given how they've handled payroll in recent years, to be honest.

But if they were going to do it, this is the year. I feel like there was consistent smoke around them trading a starter at the deadline and it didn't make sense to me for two reasons: 1)they value those starters quite highly and 2)how would they improve their team while trading away a good player?

12:07

At least the second problem is solved by us now being in the offseason where you can sign more guys, but I think 1) is still a pretty fundamental reason this won't work

12:08

I went on one of my favorite radio shows (Bernie Miklasz's) to talk Cardinals, and we were talking about what it would cost to bring, say, Logan Gilbert to St. Louis. I think the Mariners would ask for Jordan Walker plus multiple other pieces

And the Cardinals almost certainly wouldn't do that

12:09

Likewise, the Cardinals talk a big game about trading for controllable pitching, but unless they're trading Walker, I have bad news: you're not going to get your next ace for Dylan Carlson and a few prospect throw ins

Guest

12:09

Why do you hate my favorite team player

Ben Clemens

12:09

See, it's actually a personal thing with you, Guest. I just pick on the player to get to you

Wireless Joe Jackson

12:09

Whither the Orioles? If there was ever a time for them to spend money on starting pitching, this sure seems like it. But they're SO CHEAP.

Ben Clemens

12:10

I'm pretty furstrated with them

There's really no other way to say it

Elias made it sound like they're not even going to engage with the top tier of the pitching market

At that point, you better have some exciting contract extensions in the pipeline

12:11

Because this whole 'don't get Adley Rutschman enough help for half of the years he's an Oriole' deal is awful

BresslyJo

12:11

What sort of overpay does a last place team such as the Red Sox need to do to get anybody?

Ben Clemens

12:11

They probably don't need to overpay, unless I'm misunderstanding what you mean

12:12

people like playing in Boston, money can be exchanged for goods and services, seems pretty straightforward to me

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