JotCast | Top 50 Free Agents Chat | 11/9/2023

Top 50 Free Agents Chat

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Ben Clemens

12:24

For a quick look inside the process, I make my projections in a two-ish stage process

12:25

First, I formulaically produce estimates for how much money teams will spend based on a sliding-scale WAR valuation (first win is cheaper, basically), past spending comparisons, inflation, big macro factors like that

Separately, I go project every contract without using that framework

12:26

Then I kind of massage the two together, but there's a forcing function in there, so my total outlay ends up fitting macro trends

That keeps me from losing the plot and "liking" five guys in a row to the point where i project a ton more money spent than teams actually tend to spend

So anyway, I do a few rounds of all of that and come up with estimates, and that's before the crowdsourcing

I looked at the crowd numbers yday (or maybe two days ago? it's fuzzy) and was like wow, we're really close

12:27

broadly speaking, I projected more spending than the crowd, both in AAV and total dollar outlay terms

I think I'll be right; like, the free agent class is shallow this year, but that factored into my methodology. The crowd's total projected spend is just too low imo

Sanford

12:27

Where would you have ranked Craig Counsell's managerial services in the top 50?

Ben Clemens

12:27

Haha hmmmmmmm

12:28

I think I'd rather add counsell to my team than Wacha, so at least in the top 25

Adam

12:28

How many of the Other 49 sign before Ohtani does? Will he be the first big domino?

Ben Clemens

12:29

I think he'll be the first big domino, but honestly the market is stacking up to have him not be a huge sticking point if his negotiation goes late. I think that a team signing Ohtani could still be in on pretty much anyone else b/c no one else is getting 200 mill plus except maybe Yamamoto

that said, some of these DH-only bats are not getting an offer from the Dodgers/Cubs/etc. while Ohtani is still in play

Tiger Fan

12:29

I won’t pretend we’re a good team. Probably around 76 wins without ERod now. But could Detroit realistically get one of the tier 1 pitchers (Yamamoto/Nola/Gray/Montgomery) or will the sheer lack of high end talent mean they get picked off by big market teams spending silly?

Ben Clemens

12:30

Nah, I think that if the Tigers are looking for a top end starter, they won't have to go over the moon to get one. If there's one place to be patient in this market, it's with the clump of pitchers behind Yamamoto

(I think he's clearly Tier 1 on his own)

Guest

12:31

Dave Dombrowski can convince owners to spend money, the single most important skill for an executive to have. Easy HoF GM

Ben Clemens

12:32

Another great point. Basically he's really good at all kinds of these things that don't feel "innovative"

but are really important

these days you can hire a lot of analysts to measure how much everyone's breaking ball breaks

Dan

12:32

Is Harper more valuable as a first basemen or is this just injure avoidance?

Ben Clemens

12:32

In my opinion, it's a combination of injury avoidance and some pre-planning for the future

12:33

the move was coming eventually, you can't have a guy with Harper's overall aggression charging around the outfield into his mid-30's

S_McAnderson

12:33

Which pitcher do you predict to get the most team friendly contract and why is it Nick Martinez?

Ben Clemens

12:34

I actually think it'll be Wade Miley

But Martinez is a decent call too

I'm really curious what role he ends up in

Sanford

12:34

Would a (healthy) Ohtani / Yamamoto / Senga / Imanaga / Maeda rotation be the best in baseball? Mets only need to sign 4 of them to make it happen

Ben Clemens

12:35

Hmmmm.... you know, I think it might be?

obviously tons of uncertainty

but that's just a really deep rotation

Dan

12:35

How many players would the Mets signed if Steve Cohen decided to sign everyone who would improve their team by starting the majority of the games are their natural position?

Ben Clemens

12:37

hmmmmmmm... I think it'd be Bellinger, Chapman, and like four pitchers?

sorry the site's down right now somehow

so a)thanks for chatting with me anyway

but b)I couldn't actually go through their depth chart player by player

Steve O

12:37

Does Carlos Rodon bounce back next year? I still can't believe how awful he was after being so dominant for two seasons.

Ben Clemens

12:37

I've been wondering about this a lot

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