Top 50 Free Agents chat with Steve Adams and Darragh McDonald
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Steve Adams
12:29
Good afternoon! We'll get this underway at the top of the hour, but you can feel free to start sending in questions ahead of time if you are so inclined! We'll talk about all things pertaining to our Top 50 Free Agent list and predictions. Looking forward to it!
Darragh McDonald
12:35
Hello, everyone. I hope you have been enjoying all of the content we have been pumping out over the past few weeks. I am excited to now take your abuse in response.
Steve Adams
12:57
Hello! Let's get going here. We'll skew toward questions that pertain to our list/rankings/predictions but won't completely shut out other inquiries!
Let's roll
Ben Cherrington
12:57
You guys and The Athletic have a big disparity on my boy.
Steve Adams
12:57
I assume this is in reference to Brandon Lowe
Darragh McDonald
12:57
Let's lay out some different predictions on Lowe...
12:58
MLBTR: 3/69
Tim Britton, Athletic: 3/63
Keith Law, Athletic, 5/150
Ben Clemens, FanGraphs: 2/38
Kiley McDaniel, ESPN: 4/80
Steve Adams
12:58
Keith Law mentioned 5 years at $30MM per, which seems more like what he thinks he'd be comfortable with for Lowe as opposed to what the market will bear. There's just no earthly way Lowe is getting five years at 30 per when he turns 33 next July. I mean, if he does, I will tip my cap to Keith until the end of time, but that's a bananas number
12:59
Love Keith's write-ups and his list is one of my favorites every year, but he tends to do his list more along the lines of "this is what I think this guy's worth", whereas we err toward "this is what we think this guy will be paid"
Darragh McDonald
12:59
It does seem like Keith is on an island there. Everyone else views him as a guy worth something like $20MM on a deal around three years.
Steve Adams
12:59
Which leads to us trying to convince ourselves to come up to higher numbers on guys we don't think are very good, ha
Darragh McDonald
1:00
Age and health would be the main arguments against Keith there. Lowe is turning 33 soon and has been hurt a lot. Hard to see someone signing him for five years.
Todd T.
1:00
Is any player mentioned in the Top 50 worth the money that you're predicting?!?!  They ALL will be waaaaay overpaid if the owners are that dumb and any of the predictions come true.
Steve Adams
1:01
I actually found our list pretty conservative on the back end. Lots of boring one- and two-year deals. Some big numbers up top, but not to the extent we usually have. We only put down like ... five $100MM+ contracts? And most were just over 100 -- Skubal an obvious exception
Darragh McDonald
1:02
Broadly speaking, spending lots of money on free agency isn't the best use of resources. A lot of free agent deals don't work out. But it's a gamble teams have to take if they have holes.
More specifically, there are lots of deals to be found in there. I think Jazz will be real good value for money at the price we projected.
Steve Adams
1:02
Yeah, by definition, free agency is an auction and you're winning by spending beyond the other 29 teams' comfort zones. Free agency creates a whole lot of overpays.
cool 1
Will
1:03
Who is each of your guys' pick to be the most under-the-radar, sneaky good signing of the guys on the Top 50?
Steve Adams
1:03
I suppose Darragh kind of alluded to his here already haha, but we can each pick a few
1:04
Kris Bubic has No. 3 SP upside and I doubt he's getting multiple years. I'd like that as a buy. Evan Phillips and Jake Bauers are potentially elite at their respective positions but don't have the health history/age (or in Bauers' case, the long track record) to be paid as such. I think they could be really nice values.
Darragh McDonald
1:05
Yeah, I already mentioned Jazz. I guess another one could be Luis Robert Jr. Obviously, huge risk, because he often is bad or hurt or both. But it's possible that a relatively modest 14MM investment gets you a borderline MVP guy, then maybe even a QO pick at season's end.
Ryan Jeffers
1:05
There are vastly differing opinions on the contract Jeffers will get.  From 2/$15.5M to 4/$75M.  Most opinions are within $15-18M AAV.  Why do you think Jeffers will get 4 years vs.2? Especially since most catchers tend to start breaking down in their early 30's.
Steve Adams
1:05
Well Jim Bowden's 2/15.5 pick seems definitively light, since the Twins just offered him $23.15MM for one year.
1:07
As for why we're at four for Jeffers -- which I do think is one of the spots we have the most risk of being high -- I outlined the thinking in his write-up, highlighting how strongly he compares to Willson Contreras in his own free agency a few years back:
"If this number seems high, consider that the .254/.342/.440 slash Jeffers has posted in 1632 plate appearances since 2023 is a near-mirror image of the .249/.349/.467 line posted by Willson Contreras in 1604 plate appearances across the four years that preceded his own free agency. He landed five years and $87.5MM — with similar defensive concerns and a qualifying offer. Our prediction here is that Jeffers will land a bit shy of Contreras’ five-year, $87.5MM deal but a bit north of the $73MM Yasmani Grandal received in 2019."
Darragh McDonald
1:08
Yeah, Jeffers is tricky. I understand why the number might seem high. The justification, as Steve laid out, is that his numbers are so Willson-ish. And we're still putting him a bit under Willson.
We talked about this at length on the podcast that dropped this morning but it's hard to suss out who will pay Jeffers this much, even if the numbers justify it.
Morejon
1:08
When you project Morejon for 80/5, are you envisioning the team that gives him that contract would be in a relief role or to try a hand at starting? How does that starter/reliever question affect the contract you expect him to get?
Darragh McDonald
1:09
That's a good question.
Steve Adams
1:10
It's possible, but we all just kind of agree that this is one of the five to ten best relievers in the sport, and if the Padres aren't worried about his shoulder -- they wouldn't have made the QO if they were -- then he ought to be paid as one of the very best in the sport. Being only 27 is a huge boon for him as well.
Darragh McDonald
1:10
I would say our contract prediction is independent of any potential rotation move. Basically, we consider him to be better than Tanner Scott and he should therefore beat Scott's 4/72, with deferrals.
Guest
1:10
Man I really like Trevor Rogers but he has to be the worst #2 free agent in recent memory
Steve Adams
1:10
Ha, no argument here
Darragh McDonald
1:11
Yeah, the market is really lacking a second and third tier.
Steve Adams
1:11
Good pitcher -- shouldn't be the second-best in a class. Possible Freddy out-earns him. Or maybe Teruaki Sato.

If he ends up shy of five years, then I'd imagine Suzuki and Arozarena top him, too.
Darragh McDonald
1:11
Usually a prediction of around $100MM or so gets you the #10 spot. This year, it's #2.
1:12
On last year's Top 50, Ranger Suarez was 10th at 5/115. We put that same 5/115 on Rogers this year and he's second.
So Cal Craig
1:13
So which one of you three amigos had the most correct picks last year in the contest ??
Steve Adams
1:13
I claim supremacy in this instance with 11 to Darragh's 9 and Anthony's 5. Now please never look back at prior offseasons.
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