JotCast | Top 50 Trade Value Chat

Top 50 Trade Value Chat

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Ben Clemens

12:14

b/c eh....

there are a lot of teams with a lot of fans of a lot of veterans

hrs1

12:15

Who was the biggest difference between your ranking and the team sources you talked to?

Ben Clemens

12:15

Griffin

definitely Griffin

and let's talk about these

warpath

12:15

Ben, your placement of Konnor Griffin has generated a lot of discussion. Are you able to share more specifics of what your industry sources had to say about Griffin? It seems like it was near-unanimous that you had him too low, when I think it seems like most of us readers here would have initially placed him lower like you initially did.

Ben Clemens

12:15

I mean, it's probably what you'd expect

The guy is amazing, our models love him, our scouts love him

12:17

can't-miss bat, precocious for his age, we've never seen model readouts like this. I dunno, people really like him. If you've read his scouting reports, they look a lot like that, only probably shaded up slightly

people love the contract, of course, but that's not that interesting

Phil

12:17

If you had to make a baseball-only valuation for Ohtani, would he still be #1? I get your non-baseball argument, but I still think it requires a weird definition of "trade value," since I'm not convinced that the off-field value would just translate to, say, the Guardians. And if we don't care about that, then why isn't Soto, whose value is similarly untranslatable but for a different reason, ranked?

Ben Clemens

12:17

Great question. So, I mentioned in his blurb that if all you care about is surplus value, that anchors him somewhere around the top 10. 8th? something like that

but that's a floor. because teams don't pay an equal amount for every win

12:18

or even an equal amount for every way of getting a win, for a given X-WAR player

Ohtani's wins are the most valuable wins. They're power and strikeouts

those are what cost the most

12:19

and he's around for a while, and again, it's an incredible deal. Like, there's just no way you can beat that deal. you'd be happy if you got HALF an Ohtani for that deal

so like, top 5 minimum for me. but probably not number one

12:20

might still be number one? like, employing the best guy is really good

and getting him for a bargain rate is really good

leoneforthird

12:20

Since you've been doing this who is the highest ranked player to be traded?

Ben Clemens

12:20

Soto, in 2022

HappyFunBall

12:21

If you had to pick a name on this list as the guy most likely to actually be traded this season, who is it?

If you had to name the highest guy on this list who at least has a realistic chance (not likely, but not crazy) of being traded, who is it?

Follow up to my last questions (likely names to be traded) as I look at the list and ask myself the same questions, I think Zach Neto is the answer to both

Ben Clemens

12:21

Yeah, I think it's Neto for most likely to be traded, and if not him CJ Abrams?

I wouldn't trade Abrams, personally

12:22

but I mean, there's been enough smoke that it's worth mentioning

in terms of trading him over the years

szakyl

12:22

To get a sense of the exponential function of the value on your list, how many Tatis clones would it theoretically take to trade for Ohtani?

Ben Clemens

12:22

surely infinite

b/c 2 wouldn't do it, and the deal doesn't start getting better when you have more people on it

12:23

like, i wouldn't want to have 3 tatit's

tatises

that's too many, too much money spent on outfielders, gotta think about roster balance, that kind of thing

I think that the big thing with Ohtani is that you're both getting a ton of wins for your buck, and getting a ton of wins

there are lots of players that check one box or the other, few that do both

Justin

12:23

Thanks for the hard work and all the legwork you do on the list

Ben Clemens

12:23

thank you very much

12:24

it's easy for me to look at the comments, around 80% of which work out to 'you absolute donkey you misevaluated this guy', and think 'eh why would I do this?'

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