Trade Deadline Top 100 Update Prospects Chat
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Brendan Gawlowski
2:10
So let's see what it looks like as he builds up
Christopher Bourbois
2:10
I was curious why Caleb Bonemer has dropped so far even with strong production in AA. Do you all view him as a 1B/DH only now?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:11
I think it's under a 50/50 he stays at third, maybe under 25/75
Eric A Longenhagen
2:11
Terrifyingly low contact rate, maybe isn't an infielder at all.
Of course, Colson and Murakami have scary contact rates, too.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:11
Stiff operation in the box
2:12
If he's a R/R 1B, he needs to hit like Hoskins to be a 50, essentially. And he might! He's on the list because we see the chance.
But there's a lot more risk here than I'd have guessed before I dove in on him.
abravesfan25
2:13
Did Robert Arias get any consideration for the T100, or did the injury kick him into the 'need to see how he looks when he's back' bucket?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:13
The latter
aviaries
2:14
Josue De Paula is a consensus T10 guy between Pipeline, BA, and BP. What makes you guys the low men besides what was mentioned in the blurb?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:14
De Paula has an excellent statistical case, as you can see in the table at the bottom of the update post. His defense is a body blow to his overall profile. He's bad out there. Really, very bad. I'm sure our peers know that and considered it.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:15
Tracking like a DH. If he's Yordan 2.0, we'll have been light and we'll have to live with that.
baseballfan115
2:15
I believe it was Brendan who mentioned Enddy Azocar as a potential high ceiling. Do you see him reaching that ceiling quickly or is he a slow burn?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:16
Acclimating slowly in High-A, still on the tools. There's a bit of a split between us on the Greenville Red Sox guys. I like Azocar more, Eric likes Gonzales
aviaries
2:16
How old would River Ryan have to be for you to kick him off the list
Eric A Longenhagen
2:16
There's no upper boundary, just rookie status or not. Tommy Nance debuted at 30 and has been damn good, that guy belonged on the list. Teams care about the 30-year-old throwing 98.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:16
Seconded
Festivus
2:18
What kept Demetrio Crisantes from being a 50 and in the list? Think he’s an every day player? Think the hit tool is a 60?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:18
Sort of like Adamczewski, we dig this guy but don't think the tools rise to the level of a 50. He's a 45, I wish he played a second position. Hit tool has been like a 60 when you combine the last three years, more in the 50/55 area so far this year.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:19
He's probably the top Dback though
Tough year for them
Theodore
2:19
By next summer, will both Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson deserve to be in the Seattle rotation, or will they only make room for Anderson?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:19
Team need is such a big part of when guys make the jump. See: Ryan, River. Anderson I would guess yes but there are so many durable and good starters already there. I wouldn't be floored if one of them gets traded, even though guys in their prospect orbit basically never do.
Snerd
2:21
Hey Eric, Brendan - Charles Davalan is obliterating A+. Is his 45 and exclusion from the List simply just a function of a polished 22yo college bat doing what he's supposed to at A+ and needing to see the skills transfer to higher levels, or are you guys actually down on what he brings to the table? His LAD report had you mostly tepid on his power and defense, and he sure seems to have at least mostly answered for the power concern this year.
Eric A Longenhagen
2:21
Yeah, and I'm working on the Dodgers version of the Braves piece Brendan just published. Great little contact hitter, not a CF for me, doesn't have the power I want to see from a corner guy. I'll go out with a 45+ on him on Monday because I think there's a chance enough of the hit tool translates versus lefties for him to be an everyday guy anyway, but you (and other chatters with similar queries) have nailed it that we wanna see this guy do it against advanced arms. Davalan is older than all these other Dodgers top 100-ish guys (except Tibbs) and at least one level below them.
aiyer917
2:22
Kyson Witherspoon is making some tweaks by the look of it, do you think there's an avenue for him to get the command back and hop back on the horse? He looked like the clear BPA that year for Boston
Brendan Gawlowski
2:22
Is there a path? Sure. The way his fastball was getting hit was a big factor in pumping the brakes initially, so that's going to be a factor too, in addition to the command.
baseballfan115
2:24
When evaluating outfielders, how much do you factor in ballpark conditions and altitude?
Brendan Gawlowski
2:24
It can complicate the evaluation, moreso in a tiny park like Everett's, where you can watch a guy for a week and he might just never get to stretch his legs. It's impressive and a point in a guy's favor when a he is able to fight through tough conditions (big wind, tough sun, etc.)
warpath
2:24
I couldn't help but notice Eduardo Tait was dead last in chase rate among the prospect in that table you guys shared. I suspected it was bad because he's struggled a little in A+ this year, but the actual number was eye-popping. Is he in danger of falling out of the Top 100 for next year?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:24
I compare him to a lefty Jorge Alfaro in the piece because that is what it looks like when tools this big are undermined by an approach this bad.
Cromulent
2:25
Curious about a not-quite-100 guy, Pick to Clicker Jansel Luis. How is he progressing? He seems to this non-scout to be neither fully clicking nor obviously clunking.
Brendan Gawlowski
2:25
I think that's the right read. Reports from scouts have been okay. He wasn't really in consideration for the list, but he's still a prospect.
meatloaf
2:25
In your article, you included two tier for pitchers with some type of relief risk. In FanGraphs' most recent Top 100s, there have tended to be one or two players identified as SIRPs. What does a 50 FV single-inning relief pitcher look like? About how many current big league relief pitchers are at or above 50-grade present value?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:25
I think the best 15 or so guys at any given time I'd value on par with an average everyday player or better. Like Mason Miller, if you were gonna rank him knowing what you know now, where would you feel comfortable doing it? I'd have a 60 on him and rank him like 10th.
2:26
And there was a point where having him on there at all was novel.
ja1145
2:28
Was Francisco Renteria considered?
Ramon Marquez close to the list?
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