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Steve Adams

2:01

Greetings all! Thanks for joining another chat

sandyg

2:01

Hey Steve, What's up with Jeff McNeil? Has the league caught up or is this simply a uncharacteristic slow start? Last night was troubling, to say the least.

Steve Adams

2:03

McNeil has overperformed his contact profile for years because his bat-to-ball skills are SO good, and he's underperforming it for the first time ever now. I expect him to improve; he's not this bad, of course, and his K% is somehow even lower than usual. McNeil is one of the best in the game at making contact on pitches out of the zone -- top 20 in the sport over the past four seasons -- and that will eventually translate to more hits. It's a rough stretch for him, for sure, but the sheer volume of contact will inevitably lead to one of those streaks where it feels like basically everything he connects with is falling into play.

Dave

2:03

Through a combination of performance and opportunity, which minor league players are on the verge of being called up to MLB, and what kind of impact might they have on their big league club when they arrive?

Steve Adams

2:06

The performance piece is hard to gauge right now since the Triple-A season was pushed back. I think the most obvious "opportunity" candidate to make an impact is Jarred Kelenic. He's probably one of the team's three best outfielders right now, but it's also understandable if they want to give Trammell an earnest look. He's a top prospect in his own right, and both Haniger and Lewis have obviously earned their playing time, just as Ty France has as the primary DH.

Once Kelenic is up, I expect him to be a significant contributor for a pretty solid-looking Mariners club.

Similar feelings with Alex Kirilloff, whom the Twins just called up today. He ought to be getting everyday looks right now, be it at 1B or in LF, and he's the type of bat-first prospect who's an immediate must-add in any fantasy format. He has a legitimate chance to their best non-Buxton outfielder with the bat this year (not counting Nelson Cruz, who obviously isn't an outfielder anymore).

Jays Fan

2:07

Who do you see as a realistic trade target for the Blue Jays to bolster their starting rotation with at the trade deadline?

Steve Adams

2:09

The Jays have the prospects and money to add just about anyone they want, so they can go for any name on the market. Some I expect to be available: Jon Gray, Kevin Gausman, Alex Wood, Aaron Sanchez, Anthony DeSclafani, Tyler Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Merrill Kelly, Kyle Gibson, Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull, Jose Urena, Julio Teheran.

2:10

I know Scherzer has gotten all this talk, but that's not really rooted in anything right now. I laughed a little when I saw Ken Rosenthal on MLB Network yesterday telling everyone to pump the brakes on the Scherzer talk -- you're the one who started it, Ken! Haha

2:11

Of that bunch, the Jays have had interest in Gausman in back-to-back offseasons now.

GBS42

2:11

Will Corbin Burnes end the season with a single-digit walks total? I'm assuming it won't stay at zero all year, but a 40:0 K:BB rato? WOW!

Steve Adams

2:12

He'll inevitably have a few starts where he walks three guys or something. I can't see him keeping it under 10. The 40-to-0 is absurd. I'm curious to see how long he can keep it up, because it's already a record. If he can go another couple starts without a walk, we're going to get into "this record might never be broken" territory.

It's all the more remarkable that it's coming from Burnes, too. He walked 10% of his opponents last year!

2:13

On a loosely related note, my NL Cy Young pick of Brandon Woodruff came down to me believing he'd edge out Burnes in innings pitched, so I went with him. I wanted to illustrate how underrated I think the Brewers' rotation is, and I believed (still do, I should say) that either has the talent to win a Cy Young.

I should've picked Burnes!

SLH16

2:14

Why is Shildt still playing MCarp? Do you see any moves for more offense for the Cardinals?

Steve Adams

2:16

I know no one likes to hear this about a struggling player, but it's the best explanation I've got:

A) Carpenter is ultra-respected in the clubhouse and has a contract that pays him like a starter.
B) He's damn near leading the planet in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barreled balls. He's obviously striking out too much, but he's crushing everything he makes contact with. At some point, the pendulum is going to swing the other direction on his comically low .095 BABIP.

2:17

I've also heard that argument that he's a dead-pull hitter so the hard-hit balls don't matter, but he has his highest oppo rate since 2012 right now, and his highest up-the-middle rate since 2016!

2:18

I get why Cards fans are frustrated, especially after 2020 was SO bad, but his batted-ball profile is the best it's been in years.

T-Mobile

2:18

James Paxton signed for $8.5 million and made 24 pitches for the Mariners before he left the game and was told he needed TJ surgery. Do the teams have insurance to cover this sort of thing, or are they out the entire salary?

Steve Adams

2:20

This varies from signing to signing. The 5-10 year mega deals typically have weighty insurance policies on them, and I know many shorter contracts have them as well. I don't know what the Mariners' course of action was with regard to Paxton, though it wouldn't be a surprise if they had some kind of policy on him due to his injury history. I don't have a definitive answer in his case, but I know similar contracts in the past have been insured against season-ending injuries like Tommy John surgery.

@therealRangers29

2:20

Oh my gosh, we are 20 games into the season and the Rangers have a top 3 rotation in baseball. What's weird is that the only fluke looks to be Kohei Arihara. Despite that, Gibson, Dunning, and Arihara all have an ERA under 3.00 right now (with Dunning having a mark under 1.00). What's even crazier is that the expected stats don't think that Gibson and Dunning are very flukey either! What are your thoughts on this group, and do you think that Dunning and Gibson can keep up this amazing production?

Steve Adams

2:22

I don't think anyone picked the Rangers to be leading the AL in ERA come April 23, I will agree with you there.

Expected stats can be misleading in this small a sample, but I like Dunning, generally speaking, and think he can be a solid fourth starter type in the long run.

Gibson has had stretches like this in the past. As a Minnesota native, I've watched him on TV and seen him live dozens of times. He got the three-year deal from Texas because they (and everyone else) knew he was capable of runs like this, but his success is SO dependent on the slider that it hampers his consistency. That's his only plus secondary pitch, and when he loses feel for it, which he also appears prone to doing for lengthy stretches, he's trying to skate by with a bunch of average or below-average offerings, and it leads to some gross-looking results (hello, 2020).

2:23

When Gibson is going well, like he is now, you see why he was considered a Top 5 overall talent in the draft before he suffered a stress fracture in his pitching arm in the weeks leading up to the '09 draft

2:24

He's very, very talented. I don't think he can sustain this through the end of his contract, because he's never been able to do so in the past. Maybe the Rangers can coax it out of him in a way the Twins couldn't, but history suggests otherwise.

bob

2:25

The Cardinals get a lot of praise for developing pitching internally. But compare their rotation to the Brewers right now. The Brewers are more home grown and just better. By a lot. I don't know anyone who would trade BW or CB for JF.

Steve Adams

2:27

There's also been a long-running (and incorrect) narrative that the Brewers "don't have enough starting pitching", which puzzled me.

I don't think you can look at the Brewers though and simply say that since they have a pair of ace-type, homegrown guys that the Cardinals are somehow deficient. The Cards always have a nice stable of arms. Compare that to a club like the Rockies or even a perennial contender like the Cubs or (more recently) the Twins. There are a lot of teams that have struggled immensely to develop starters.

When I reported that the Brewers signed Zack Godley earlier a month or so back, Tim Dierkes quote-tweeted me and said "The most successful pitcher developed by the Epstein/Hoyer regime." I laughed at first before I realized, holy cow, he wasn't kidding.

2:28

The Twins are an easy example for me to spout off too, since I live here and hear friends and family lament it all the time. Jose Berrios is great, but the next-best starter they've churned out in the past decade was either Scott Baker or Matt Garza, and Garza didn't really take off until the Rays got their hands on him.

2:29

Broadly speaking, the Cardinals do a nice job. They're not Cleveland/Tampa/LA (Dodgers, obviously -- sorry Halos fans) level but they're solid.

Russell

2:30

Do coaches ever factor pick-off attempts into a pitcher's workload/pitch count? I can recall seeing worn-out pitchers, struggling to get through an inning, make multiple pick-off attempts when it appears their arm is already tired. Even just 5-10 attempts adds up, especially for a reliever.

Steve Adams

2:32

The way teams monitor every motion their pitchers make in 2021, that's factored into the mix. They know how much these guys are throwing on off-days, what intensity level all their pitches are at, etc. I'm sure they even break them down, since not all pickoff throws are created equal. There are quick, legitimate attempts where they're chucking the ball with actual force, and then the token attempts where you see a pitcher kind of half-heartedly lob it over to say "I'm still aware you're there"

Keith

2:32

Is Joey Gallo's .222/.455/.278 batting line the strangest one ever?

Steve Adams

2:32

It's strange in and of itself, and it's particularly strange because it's coming from probably the most powerful hitter in all of baseball. I hadn't seen that his slugging has dipped so low, ha. Thanks for pointing that out

GBS42

2:32

The comments section regarding Dinelson Lamet's most recent forearm injury contain many concerns that San Diego isn't taking enough preventative measures and precautions to keep their players healthy and/or minimize injuries so they don't get worse. Any thoughts on this perspective?

Steve Adams

2:36

I don't think it's anything unique to San Diego, I think they just happen to have had a run of bad injuries that has them under a microscope. Every fan thinks their own team is the absolute worst and handling injuries and that the medical staff is inept. It's natural to get tunnelvision and think "Why does this happen to us all the time!?"

In some instances, it genuinely does seem to be that a specific organization has some issues keeping players healthy, but even that's often not as straightforward as it seems. We all see the number of Angels pitchers who've been hurt in recent years, for instance, but I'd wager that if you went into their draft history (I have not done this) you'd see more of a willingness to take risks on some guys with potential arm troubles. I know that to be a case for a few guys there, so I'm admittedly extrapolating and speculating with that theory.

By and large, while it's true that some teams probably have better training and medical staffs than others...

(I hit the limit for characters in an answer! Woohoo!)

...I generally think the notion that any team needs to fire its entire training staff or that their doctors are incompetent is silly.

2:37

I also saw lots of "How was this obvious to ME and not to the Padres" comments, which is total nonsense. Comment on that about every pitcher with an elbow injury and of course you're going to be right sometimes.

Dave

2:37

What is the latest news on Adalberto Mondesi and when is he expected to return to the Royals?

Steve Adams

2:39

The last update from the Royals, which was just this week, was that he's not even cleared to swing a bat yet. They didn't provide a timeline, but I would imagine that's because the Royals themselves don't even have a clear sense of when he'll be back. If he's not swinging yet, it's hard to see him back before mid-May at the earliest, and that would be in a best-case scenario where he gets the green light to resume all baseball activities real quickly

Alfonse

2:39

Is there reason to believe that Baddoo is a legitimate long term big league talent?

Steve Adams

2:40

He obviously has power and speed, so sure. But this version of Baddoo -- 18 strikeouts and one walk through 46 plate appearances -- isn't going to cut it. He needs to refine his approach, because he's not going to sustain 36% of his fly-balls becoming home runs or 39% of the balls he puts into play becoming hits

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