JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Chat | 5/7/2021

Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

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Andrew

2:34

What's your take on the Pujols DFA? As a Cardinal fan it has really hurt to watch him struggle and the DFA just left me bummed out. I can absolutely appreciate the situation from the Angels perspective, but I can't help but really not like the front office here.

Steve Adams

2:37

I don't know that you can blame the front office. It seems like they had an honest, straightforward conversation about reducing his playing time, and he said he wants to be an everyday player, hard stop. What can you really do at that point? He's been on the decline for years, he's not a good first baseman, you need Ohtani and Walsh both in the lineup at this point and have a pair of intriguing RF prospects on the horizon.

It's a crappy situation, and it's not how I or anyone would want to see an icon's career wrap up, but the Angels just weren't in a great spot. Whatever the did was going to feel unceremonious, and they'd have (rightly) been panned for being overly sentimental if they just gave him everyday ABs all season.

Imagine if they let Pujols play 1B every day and then missed the postseason by two games. They'd be deservedly skewered.

Eli

2:37

I heard that the Pirates were going to use the No. 1 pick on Lawler. Are they really going to pass on the likes of Rocker or Leiter?

Steve Adams

2:38

The Pirates don't know who they're going to take yet. There was a recent mock draft that had Lawlar up top, that's all.

2:39

The draft is still two months out. No team knows who it's going to draft yet. Information on these kids is constantly changing. Lawlar could tear his ACL tomorrow. Leiter could blow out his elbow. Marcelo Mayer could absolutely erupt to the point where scouts now think he's the consensus No. 1. There are so many variables.

Tony La Russa

2:39

Pujols is going to help me keep keeping Andrew Vaughn off of first base as soon as he clears waivers, right?

Steve Adams

2:40

Jose Abreu and Yermin Mercedes are keeping Vaughn off of 1B -- understandably so right now.

That said, part of me still feels like TLR will try to push Reinsdorf to bring in Pujols, ha.

bob

2:40

Does anyone sign Pujols? is 700 HRs totally out of his reach?

Steve Adams

2:41

I just don't see how anyone out there is looking at this version of Pujols and thinking he makes the team demonstrably better. And then if you sign him, you're in a weirder spot than the Angels. I guess you don't need to feel as loyal to him, but if he comes in and just flops in 10 games, do you really want to be the team that is now debating cutting this icon after two weeks?

Sean M.

2:41

Keep reading about Starling Marte being a likely candidate for being moved at the deadline. I just don't see the Marlins going into sell mode unless the bottom falls out completely. If Miami is buying in July, what do you think there most movable assets are in terms of making the team better in 2021?

Steve Adams

2:43

I could see them moving Marte even if they're in Wild Card contention. They probably won't make the QO since they don't want to risk paying him $19MM or whatever in 2022. Getting something for him and acquiring a cheaper OF or just going Dickerson/Duvall/Cooper in the OF doesn't seem totally outlandish to me. They've been playing Duvall in CF>

in CF.*

2:44

If they're going to move from their farm, I would think someone like Braxton Garrett -- more or less MLB-ready but no real rotation spot available -- is on the block. Maybe Edward Cabrera if he's healthy. Generally, their glut of pitching depth would pique other teams' interest

Will

2:44

It seems that a number of AL rookie types (Baddoo, Mountcastle, Whitlock, Trammell, Arihara, for example) came out of the gates all-on-fire, and then hit the proverbial brick wall. Which do you think has the highest probability of adapting and turning their season back to the more productive road?

Steve Adams

2:46

Mountcastle, of that bunch. He's hit at every level. Every scouting report on him has said he's one of the best bats in the minors, etc.

Baddoo was fun but even when he was hitting homers he was striking out at an insane rate that made his success clearly unsustainable. Trammell never hit all that much, and Arihara has fifth starter stuff.

I wouldn't say Whitlock hit a wall just because he allowed runs in consecutive outings. He wasn't going to finish with a 0.00 ERA

Jorge78

2:46

Steve you always have a quote from an article handy. How much do you read everyday?

Steve Adams

2:47

Most of my work day is either writing about baseball, reading about baseball, exchanging emails about baseball or talking to someone on the phone about baseball, be it Tim, someone with an agency, team, the league, etc.

I consume an absolutely unhealthy level of baseball content, and then in my off-time I ... watch ... baseball. :-/

I have a problem.

2:48

I also like to cook and play video games! Hooray hobbies

Prospecter

2:48

Which top prospect(s) do you see called up this month?

Steve Adams

2:49

I'll be pretty shocked if the Mariners don't have Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert up this month. The Angels seem likely to bring up one of Jo Adell or Brandon Marsh. Blue Jays and Nate Pearson. Phillies will have Spencer Howard up late this month.

2:51

And then it depends what you mean by "top" prospects. If you're talking Top 100, there might not be TOO many more beyond that. But there'll be plenty of teams who are bringing up guys that might rank 8th to 15th in their own org or something. I could see the Orioles bringing up Rylan Bannon since Rio Ruiz still can't hit.

Cease your Whining

2:52

Dylan Cease seems to have found a solid pitch mix in his last two outings and appeared (dare I say) dominate. I'm sure there will always be hiccups but do you think he has turned the corner?

Steve Adams

2:54

I'm always going to believe in a guy with stuff that good. I said this in one of my chats a couple weeks ago when I was asked if it was time to give up on him, and my answer was of course not.

Cease has all the same things -- velocity, crazy spin, multiple plus secondary pitches -- that made a guy like Corbin Burnes so tantalizing a couple years ago. Not everyone just develops linearly from great prospect to great MLB performer.

Obviously not saying Cease will go full Burnes and put up a 49-to-0 K/BB with a sub-1.00 ERA or whatever, but I'm his combination of velocity, spin, movement -- I'm a Cease buyer.

A’s black hole at Shortstop

2:54

How much longer are A’s fans going to be forced to watch sub-Replacement level Hitters man the Shortstop position? How about just promoting one of the minor league prospects like Logan Davidson or Nick Allen?

Steve Adams

2:55

I would think they want to get those guys some game reps before they move on from Andrus, but there's no reason to be loyal to Elvis like the Rangers were. If he's still floundering four weeks from now, I don't see how they can't make a change.

Steve

2:55

It seems everyone is consumed with exit velocity. What are the other contributors that make a player great on offense? And what stat is the best indicator of one's value?

Steve Adams

2:59

I'm as guilty as anyone with exit velocity, but it's obviously just one small piece of a pretty large puzzle -- and even within exit velo there are different areas to look at. Max versus average... exit velo on flyballs/liners versus on grounders, etc. I tend to care more about hard-hit rate -- percentage of balls at 95-plus mph -- than about raw average exit velo, because (especially so early in the year) a few hard-hit balls can really skew your average even if you're making loads of mediocre contact.

I'm generally intrigued by chase rates, contact rates on pitches both in an out of the zone, pitches per plate appearance. Broadly speaking, I think especially in today's game, guys with great bat-to-ball skills are undervalued both as prospects and as big leaguers.

3:01

I like to see SOME semblance of an approach with those skills; Willians Astudillo is fun, but just hacking at every pitch you see and making lots of wonky contact interests me less than having the bat-to-ball skills to stave off fringe pitches while laying off bad ones and isolating good ones to drive.

That's a pretty obvious answer, I think -- guys with good approaches are good, wow! -- but that is something that's lost when we're consumed with exit velocity, home run distance, launch angle and all that.

The release

3:01

If the Angels managed to DFA Pujols and his $30M salary, why haven't the O's done the same with Chris Davis?

Steve Adams

3:02

The Angels took until the final season of the Pujols deal, and Pujols was insistent on being an everyday player on a team that's hoping to contend. The Orioles aren't in Davis' last year (somehow), and he seems more self-aware. Plus they're actively trying to lose.

Eli

3:02

Could Jared Walsh possibly get an extension?

Steve Adams

3:03

He'll be 28 in July and they already control him through 2025, which will be his age-32 season. They probably already control his best remaining years.

John Means Means Business

3:04

Big outing by the southpaw this week which is definitely making his numbers look great right now. If he continues to pitch somewhere between this dominance and his 130 ERA+ 2018, will he be the biggest name on the trade block? Doesn't start his arb years until 2022 and his stock is high right now. Do the O's pull the trigger?

Steve Adams

3:08

I think they would pull the trigger for a big enough offer. It's a risk for the front office, of course. You've asked a lot of patience from this fanbase, and you finally have a guy who is developing into what looks like a core rotation piece ... and you trade him? Fans are going to be livid. This isn't like when Machado was a pending free agent and they were all actively craving a rebuild.

I think you'd have to be getting immediate MLB help with more club control as well as some kind of Top 25-ish prospect (again, this is assuming he continues as a No. 1/No. 2 type of SP, which isn't a given).

The Orioles' front office knows this group still won't compete in 2022, so right now you're looking at Means' age-30 and age-31 seasons (2023-24) as the two controllable, prime-aged seasons you have left of him.

They SHOULD be open to it, but there are legitimate PR implications and the ask would be prohibitive for a lot of clubs.

Guest

3:08

hi just wondering when bobby witt and bleday coming up

Steve Adams

3:09

I know there was talk of Witt breaking camp, but that seemed insane to me. He hadn't played above Rookie ball and is 20. The Royals march to the beat of their own drum, and I don't expect this front office to ever play service time games. So maybe, if Witt obliterates Double-A and Triple-A pitching and they're contending in August, he gets the call. But I don't think it'll be soon.

3:10

Bleday is in a somewhat similar spot; the Marlins' handling of Jazz and Sixto suggests they won't be beholden to service games themselves, but JJ is going to need to force the issue and they'll have to be in contention -- especially with a pair of veteran OFs like Marte and Dickerson around

To the earlier point on possibly trading Starling Marte, a huge showing from Bleday in the minors this year might also make that scenario more viable.

Dave

3:10

Is Lewis Brinson going to establish himself as a viable everyday MLB player with better than average production?

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