JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

Steve Adams

2:06

Greetings all!

Let's get underway

MLB Draft

2:06

Hard to believe the Pirates would pass up on Vanderbilt RHP Jack Leiter. That kid could not only pitch in the majors right now, but perhaps dominate. Why make their Fans wait another 3 years to be relevant by drafting a HS Shortstop?

Steve Adams

2:08

It's not like the Pirates are the only ones thinking they'd go Lawlar or Mayer over Leiter or Rocker at the top of the draft. There are a lot of scouts in the industry who simply feel the upside with the shortstops is greater. It's not as though even a polished college pitcher is a lock to contribute right away (or at all) in the Majors. Mark Appel sure didn't, for instance.

2:09

The Pirates aren't going to be good in a year or two anyway. They'll take who they think has the best combination of upside and certainty to contribute in the Majors.

If it had been Lawlar/Mayer who were the consensus top picks a year ago this time but Leiter and Rocker who'd been shooting up the draft rankings all spring, the narrative might well be flipped. Leiter just feels tougher to pass on for fans because he's been a name for so long.

2:10

That type of scenario is exactly why whenever anyone asks about potential top picks a year out, or "Player A is a surefire No. 1 overall pick, right?" at the beginning of a college/high school season, my answer is always, emphatically, that it's way too early for any such assessment.

tigerfan

2:11

How much more leash are the tigers gonna give Mazara and Goodrum?

Steve Adams

2:15

Goodrum at least hit fairly well for them in 2018-19 and has a solid glove at multiple spots. I would imagine they'll keep him around even with the poor offensive numbers. (He's hitting well over the past week, but that's not much)

Mazara... I'm just not really sure why they signed him. I suppose every team looks at his age, his former prospect status and upside, and hopes they can be the team to unlock him. But he's never been more than an average (at best) bat, his defensive skill set is poor, and his performance has cratered in recent years.

I don't see how they can keep running him out there much longer. If he's around once Reyes and Hill are off the injured list, I'll be surprised.

GBS42

2:15

How good can Tyler O'Neill be with a K:BB greater than 9:1? His OPS+ is 158 so far this year, but I don't see how that's sustainable.

Steve Adams

2:18

Yeah, I don't view it as sustainable barring some changes at the dish. Thirty-six percent of his fly-balls are leaving the yard right now, and while he's a huge guy with light-tower power, that type of production is hard for anyone to sustain. Beyond that, the .360 average on balls in play (non-homers) is probably going to come down at least a little bit. I know the hard-contact numbers are sky-high, so a higher-than-normal BABIP is certainly possible, but the utter lack of plate discipline is going to catch up to him.

2:20

Put another way, O'Neill chases outside the zone more than about 80 percent of the league, and he makes contact on pitches outside the zone at the third-lowest rate in MLB, ahead of only Sano and Gallo.

Why would you ever throw the guy an obvious strike?

2:21

Oops, sorry -- Trent Grisham's O-contact is also worse. But Grisham chases literally half as often as O'Neill. He's one of the better hitters in the league at laying off pitches outside the zone.

2021>2020

2:22

Do you think if MLB starts allowing full trading of draft picks that it would have to be combined with some other changes? Otherwise we could we see a situation where a team somehow gathered 7 or 8 of the first 20-30 picks, right?

Steve Adams

2:23

There could be some regulation as to how many picks a team accumulates, I suppose -- but really, who cares how many first-round picks a team amasses? They'd likely be trading immense present-day value in order to do so. Is this any different than watching a team orchestrate a massive fire sale to accumulate as many top prospects as possible? It's just a different form of tanking. And at least the team acquiring all the picks would then have to spend money on them.

I think it's silly not to allow them to trade picks, and I hope it's implemented in the new CBA.

Mercedes Bends

2:24

Yankees, Indians, Angels, Nationals, Cardinals, Reds. Buyers or sellers?

Steve Adams

2:25

The boring, but factual answer is that they'll all wait to see. But if you want me to make personal predictions on each...

Buyers: Yankees, Indians, Cardinals
Sellers: Angels, Reds

I can see the Nats selling off a Hudson or Hand, but I have a harder time envisioning Scherzer (unless he wants to go to a contender) and certainly a tougher time on someone like Trea Turner.

Hits Like Rays

2:26

Why are the Rays starting Wander Franco at SS in AAA? The team has said that Taylor Walls is the best defensive SS in the organization, so it seems best that they would train Franco to take over 3B and kick Yandy Diaz into the 1B/DH role, or train Franco at 2B and push Brandon Lowe into the 3B role…

Steve Adams

2:27

What's the harm in keeping him there? No guarantee Walls hits enough to hold down the shortstop position, and the Rays more than any other club value a player's ability to bounce around the diamond. They likely feel that it's easier for Franco to keep getting reps at SS then move to 3B or 2B if necessary, than it is for him to move off the harder position (SS) and then return there.

Broadly speaking, I'm not going to question too many of the Rays' player development decisions! Ha

nick

2:27

What would the Twins need to sell Berrios?

Steve Adams

2:32

I imagine they'd need a much, much larger offer than a team would put forth for other starters who are also controlled through 2022 (say, Kyle Gibson or a healthy Matthew Boyd). They'd also very likely be seeking MLB-ready talent at positions of need (which, most notably, includes in the rotation). That makes him tough to come up with an actually viable package. Would they take Dakota Hudson and multiple high-end prospects from the Cardinals? I feel like that's the type of offer they'd need ... a ready-made rotation piece for 2022 in addition to legitimately high-end talent that is also close to the Majors.

The current Twins are a mess, but they have Buxton, Berrios, Garver/Jeffers, Kirilloff, Polanco, Larnach, Kepler and Donaldson into 2022 (most beyond '22), a deep farm with multiple near-MLB-ready Top 100 SP prospects (Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic), and tons of money coming off the books this winter as a historically good free agent class looms.

They're just not a team that's going to take a bunch of far-off prospects for a pitcher who can help them in 2022 (and perhaps one whom they still hope they can sign long-term)

Cool Papa

2:33

What era of baseball would you most like to have watched in person?

Steve Adams

2:35

I'm always curious as to how hard Walter Johnson actually threw. I'd like to be able to go back in time to see him pitch. Also would love to see Ruth work his magic as the original two-way superstar. So ... I guess 19-teens to 20s?

Royals Trade...

2:35

Been looking at relievers for the trade block from underwhelming teams. A name that popped up was Scott Barlow. Didnt know who he was (don't watch KC almost at all), but he's having a great season. His previous years show good FIPs and ERA+. Plenty of years before FA. Is he a part of the Royals plans going forward or being that he's a RP, they will flip him for more talent for the future?

Steve Adams

2:38

Kansas City GM Dayton Moore has said multiple times that his focus has shifted to winning now. Barlow is a huge feather in the cap of the Royals' scouting staff, as signed him as a minor league free agent after a nondescript run in the Dodgers system. Moore is often reluctant to trade "homegrown" talent (I use quotes because in this instance, Barlow isn't technically homegrown, but he's still a product of the system, and the fact that K.C. will want to compete again in '22 makes me quite reluctant to consider Barlow an actually viable trade target for another club.

He's pretty good, though.

Dave

2:39

Does Glasnow avoid surgery...and do you see the Rays calling up an impact arm to replace him in the rotation?

Steve Adams

2:41

Zero way to know whether he avoids surgery. He's meeting with a surgeon today (as we speak, I believe). As for a replacement, it seems like nearly whoever the Rays call up is an "impact" arm," but I see no reason why this couldn't be a more pronounced opportunity for Luis Patino to establish himself. Patino dominated in his most recent start in Durham and went five innings, so he's stretched out enough to make some starts now.

Rusty

2:42

Where should the Mets be looking to improve via trade? I guess SP and OF seem like good places, but injured players coming back make things a little tricky...

Steve Adams

2:44

Rotation and outfield would be my two biggest points -- a center fielder (Ketel Marte? Starling Marte?) specifically.

In the rotation, the hope is obviously that deGrom won't have to miss much (or any) time, and that they'll get big returns from Syndergaard and Carrasco. But the depth has already been tested, and Peterson hasn't exactly dominated. Plus you're relying on Taijuan Walker to remain healthy, which is very, very far from a given when considering his history.

Rotation first, for me, followed perhaps by outfield and then maybe a third baseman depending on what's happening with Davis, McNeil, etc.

Mercedes Bends

2:44

Which positions will be in highest/lowest demand leading up to the trade-in? Of course, everyone can always use bullpen help. Aside from that, I feel like there will be more competition for SP and OF generally than for IF upgrades, which could result in more bargain deals for infielders. Thoughts?

Steve Adams

2:47

I think that's a pretty accurate read. Pitching help is always in demand, as you suggested, and the barrage of injuries we've seen around the league is only going to increase the desire for teams to add healthy arms. We're going to see some clubs start to really monitor and manipulate workloads in the second half, too.

This is a large part of the reason the Top 40 trade candidate list was largely comprised of pitchers and OFs:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/06/top-mlb-trade-deadline-candidat...

Could see some bargains on an Eduardo Escobar or a serviceable utility piece like Freddy Galvis

I still think the Bucs can get a decent return on Adam Frazier if they move him, since he can play a solid LF and 2B, making him a good fit for multiple clubs (White Sox, Yankees, Mets)

MikeyF

2:49

How much would The reds have to give up for Trevor Story? He isn’t playing his best and it’s only for a half season?

Steve Adams

2:50

Have said this often in the past, but will repeat since I keep getting asked: I don't think the Reds -- who dumped Iglesias' salary, non-tendered Bradley and spent zero money this winter -- are going anywhere near Story's salary.