JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Chat | 7/16/2021

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Steve Adams

2:47

The more I think about it, I might go Whitlock second anyway. The K% are similar, and Whitlock might work more innings with better command.

Feyereisen, Whitlock, Staumont and Petit. I love Yus, but you need the K's in fantasy.

BillGoyette

2:48

Everyone says trade Adam Frazier. He's playing to at least 3.0 WAR which translates to over $15M and he's making 4+M. Could get 8-9M in arb next year. Still a deal. Why not extend him, add to the control and get more in a trade next year?

Steve Adams

2:50

Part of the value is that his salary is below market rate. You extend him, you're paying him close to market value and the acquiring team is taking on the downside that he regresses, gets injured, etc. The upside for the new team in that scenario is that you have a good player who's being paid like a good player. At the moment, you have a good player who's being paid like a utilityman.

I also think most teams, the Pirates included, know Frazier is going to regress. He's made some legitimate improvements, but he's not going to sustain a .366 average on balls in play. He's 37 percent better than a league-average hitter right now, by measure of wRC+, and came into the season exactly average. I bet most teams expect that his true talent lies closer to 10-15 percent better than average.

2:51

On an extension, his agents are going to want him paid closer to that 37% above though, so you also run the risk of signing him to a deal that other clubs don't believe he's worth.

Kyle Hendricks

2:51

Do I get moved? What's my value?

Steve Adams

2:55

I think it's certainly plausible. I was a little bit dismissive of the idea at the end of my Baez/Rizzo post today -- probably more than I should've been. I just meant to say it's possible but not a lock.

Hendricks is a solid mid-rotation guy with fringe stuff but some of the best command in MLB. Teams would be buying his age-32, age-33 and (club option) age-34 seasons. This type of midrotation guy might cost you $15-18MM annually in free agency, maybe on a longer deal than that three-year term he has left. He's being paid an average of $14.8MM in that time, and they can hit the eject button on year three if he crumbles.

It's a nice deal, but it's not teeming with huge surplus value. High demand will probably give Chicago some leverage, but we're not talking a franchise-changing haul. I think one mostly MLB-ready piece with some upside (a strong prospect on the brink of MLB) and maybe some lower-range pieces.

2:56

The Twins gave up Brusdar Graterol for four years of Kenta Maeda knowing that if all went well, they'd be paying him around $13MM per year. It's not a direct comparable, but I could see a similar structure. Near-MLB pitcher who's a top-100-y type of guy as the headliner. If the prospect is a little worse than Graterol, add some lower-level lotto tickets.

2:57

Also depends what the Cubs want, though. I'd have said you could get near-MLB pieces for Yu in the winter, too, easily. They preferred to dump the salary and take a bunch of teenage lotto tickets.

Giants and Kimbrel

2:57

Amongst Giants fandom, the longing for a more definite closer is a big want. McGee has been good with a great K/BB ratio. Rogers has been stellar as well but has 4 blown saves and is a pitch to contact type which is pretty anxiety inducing for a bottom of the 9th scenario. Does Kimbrel come as a good fit with his lights out 15+ K/9 or does Farhan spend more time dealing with OF options/the lack of a 5th starter?

Steve Adams

2:58

Kimbrel makes total sense for the Giants, and I don't think you need to say they'll get him OR an outfielder. Can easily do both. There's plenty of time, and the Cubs would probably love to move Kimbrel sooner than later. That contract is costing them $86,000 a day, haha.

(Man, when broken down like that, baseball salaries really are insane)

2021>2020

2:59

Can a team put a player that was placed on administrative leave by the league put them on their restricted list so as to avoid paying them?

Steve Adams

3:00

I'm sure there'd be a grievance. Administrative leave is mutually agreed upon by MLB and the MLBPA and is paid so as not to be deemed punitive or any admission of guilt. The restricted list would run counter to that thinking, serving as punitive, and would imply an expectation of guilt. There'd be a grievance, lawsuit, etc.

Bobby V

3:00

Mets have a need at 3B and SP, and could also use some BP help. Cubs seemingly have all those on the block. Any chance of one big deal that solves all the Mets problems?

Steve Adams

3:02

Lots and lots of Cubs questions. Understandable right now, ha.

It's always possible, but that type of scenario rarely plays out. Plus, if I'm the Mets, I'm looking for a better starter than Davies, anyhow, and prying something like Bryant, Kimbrel and Hendricks away in one fell swoop would be enormously expensive financially, in addition to requiring some really good minor league talent.

Joe

3:02

What's Jarren Duran's ceiling? JBJ? Ellsbury?

Steve Adams

3:05

He's nowhere near the defender Bradley is. I think he'll get a look in center and maybe even stick there for a year or two, but I imagine he's a long-term corner guy with plenty of power, a solid OBP and average or better defense in right/left.

His absolute ceiling would to be that power-hitting, strong-OBP guy with average-ish center field defense, but that's a 90th or 95th percentile outcome.

Hasley

3:06

Since Abrams is hurt & Gore is struggling is Robert Hassell the new top trade piece? Is his value really as high as Padres are saying. Also If padres put him Campusano & Marcano together what return could they get?

Steve Adams

3:08

It varies from team to team, I'm sure. Gore's stock is unequivocally down, but I'm sure there are still teams that prefer him since his ceiling is SO high. Depends who you're trading with, too. If you're going to a pure rebuilding club, maybe Abrams is the key piece you want. If you're looking at one of these teams -- Braves, Cardinals, Twins, Indians, Mariners -- who want to be good in 2022 even though they're not firmly in the 2021 mix (or entirely out of it, in Minnesota's case), someone like Gore who is (or should be) closer to MLB might be more appealing.

Will

3:09

To Joe's question about Duran's ceiling, isn't Mike Greenwell a more appropriate comparison?

Steve Adams

3:10

That's a name I haven't heard in awhile!

I think Durran has more power.

greggo

3:10

Which starting pitchers do you think the Giants should try to acquire in the next 2 weeks?

Steve Adams

3:11

Have said this in the past, but guys who are controlled beyond 2021. Gausman, DeSclafani, Wood, Sanchez, Cueto -- all free agents. I'd be on Gibson, Boyd, Berrios, Marquez and anyone else who could be quasi-available. See if you can pry Plesac away from Cleveland. Talk to the O's about John Means, etc.

Robert

3:11

Will The Whitesox and Indians be looking to acquire players ahead of the trade deadline.

Steve Adams

3:12

White Sox for sure will. Cleveland is so far back that I can't see them going after any rentals with a cost of any note. I could see them trying to add an outfielder controlled beyond the 2021 season though.

3:13

Alrighty. I'm going to wrap up for the week. Thanks so much for all the questions. Feel free to ask me more on Twitter @Adams_Steve.

Thank you, as always, for the support. It should be a fun deadline season and I'm looking forward to discussing all the chaos that's in store with all of you! Have a great weekend, folks.

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