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Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

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Anthony Franco

2:33

Yeah, Jon Heyman reported the PA "responded very negatively" to the league's offer. That's not surprising, since we only got bits and pieces of it to begin with and even a lot of the stuff that was leaked seemed kind of questionable as to how much of a difference it would make for players

2:34

I'm not super concerned about it at this point. It's early in negotiations, and it's only natural both sides would start out with extreme offers knowing they'll get rejected but in hopes of marginally moving the eventual midpoint closer to their side

2:35

But as for your actual question, I think it's probably unlikely the league meaningfully moves free agency eligibility up

2:36

What I think are more viable are 1) some form of revamping of arbitration to make it a little more modern and in line with how teams value players and 2) a raising of the league minimum salary, which would reduce the incentive for teams to non-tender arbitration eligible players and to sign mid-tier free agents

2:37

It's easy for teams to non-tender or not sign a middle reliever who would make $3M when you can replace him with somebody very slightly worse for $600K. If his replacement would instead make, say, $1.5M, then that better player looks more desirable because the gap in salary is smaller

Don

2:37

Watching this Yankee's roller coaster year, , do you see the Yanks moving on from Boone? Assuming they don't do the unthinkable, a month ago, and win it all?

Anthony Franco

2:38

I'd be really surprised if they fired Boone even if they get bumped in the Wild Card game

2:39

The team has been good every year since he's been there. Losing one game (whether it were against the Red Sox, A's, Mariners, even the Orioles) doesn't invalidate that

Daniel

2:39

I don't recall who has put it into the ether, but I remember reading something about a draft reconstruction for competitiveness (maybe you Tim?). Orioles and Giants both have had losing records after being 2nd in their division in 2016. 2021, O's are the worst team in MLB and the Giants are grinding it out for the best team in baseball.

Clearly, the tanking scheme doesn't work well in baseball. Owners seem to place a lot of value into prospect capital, so let's change draft incentives? Teams who just miss the playoffs get first playoffs/lose in the WC? Readjust the draft to either best records not in the post season with last place teams getting middle of the pack picks. Or maybe we can trade draft picks to spark more fun in the off season as well. Or both! Thoughts?

Anthony Franco

2:41

I'd be fully on board with both of your proposals. Give the #1 pick to the team that finishes a game out of the playoffs and go backwards from there. It makes winning end-of-season games matter a little bit for teams like the Pirates and D-Backs but somewhat disincentives the full tank, as you suggested

2:42

There's zero logic in banning draft pick trades. I think that'll happen in the new CBA, although I'm not as optimistic they'll actually change the draft order

Benito

2:42

Are the White Sox likely to do an extension with Cease this offseason or hold off another year? Giolito seems willing to just go to FA after '23 unless the club offers him well into 9 figures now, which they likely won't.

Anthony Franco

2:42

Yeah, he's a plausible candidate for sure. He could be a little tricky to value because this is his first good year

2:43

But he's been incredible this season and it's not like it's out of the blue. He has huge raw stuff and scouts have been on the guy for like seven years, so I'd guess the front office buys it

2:45

Germán Márquez got 5/$43MM guaranteed with a club option for a sixth season when he was in the same service bracket as Cease will be this winter. Márquez had been a little bit better than Cease over the prior couple seasons but also faced some more risk in arbitration because he pitches at Coors

2:46

So I think that's a fair general ballpark for Cease, who otherwise will make the league minimum next year and then has three years of arbitration control

Will

2:47

Kendall Graveman has a one year contract and is a free agent at the end of the season. What do you think the probabilities are that the Mariners will reach out to him and bring him back as their closer (a la the Yankees and Chapman)? Or, how do you think the off-season will go for him?

Anthony Franco

2:49

Seems like he was beloved in the clubhouse. I could see there being some interest in bringing him back (assuming he's amenable even after being sort of blindsided by the trade), but I think there'll probably be other teams that feel they need him more

2:50

Seattle's bullpen's already good and they should get Ken Giles back next year as a potential closer. I think an above-average position player and a mid-rotation starter could be the bigger focus for them

2:52

Graveman's been great since moving to the bullpen. He'll be 31 next season. I think he probably lands three years at like $9-10MM AAV. He should be able to top Will Harris' 3/$24MM from a couple years ago

2:53

I'd have also said that about Trevor May last winter and Matt Barnes before he signed his extension, though, and neither of those guys did

Dallas

2:53

What do the Mets do in their outfield next season? Alonso to DH, Smith to 1st that leaves Nimmo as the only outfielder on the roster (Conforto FA). Do the Mets finally get a centerfielder and move Nimmo to a corner (where his bat doesn't play as well but big bonus defensively plus Nimmo is so underrated)

Anthony Franco

2:55

I think they QO Conforto. If he accepts, then they probably keep Nimmo and get a cheaper stopgap for LF

Keep Nimmo in CF*

If Conforto walks, then I could see them being in on a bigger-ticket center field option

2:56

Starling Marte's basically the only good free agent there, but I could see them making a run at Buxton if the Twins are willing to shop him again

Blue Jays GM

2:57

would a fair comp for a Vladimir Guerrero Jr extension be Tatis? Or is it too soon to consider?

Anthony Franco

2:58

I'm sure they'd love to take a shot at it if Vlad's amenable. Tatís is the better player in my opinion, but I also think that extension he signed is fairly team-friendly, crazy as that sounds given how much money he got

2:59

So sure, I think that'd be a reasonable place to start if he's willing to sign for essentially his entire career

Alright everyone, I have to head out to take over the main feed

3:00

Thanks as always for chatting, and you can find me on Twitter @affranco10 if you have any other questions during the week

Talk to you all next Friday. Enjoy your weekends!

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