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jaysfan

2:28

The jays are going to be losing some key rotation pieces this year without any real prospects who can reliably backfill for a team looking to contend. Do they look at free agents or do you think they will dip into their prospects for a trade? If it's a trade who do you think they might target?

Tim Dierkes

2:30

The Jays still have a good amount of powder dry in terms of payroll, so I expect at least one starter to come through free agency. I think the marriage with Robbie Ray can continue to work, but if not, they have enough money for any free agent starter who is willing to come to Toronto.

It seems natural that the Jays would try to match up with one of the few teams with a real pitching surplus, the Marlins.

Sandy G

2:31

Hey Tim, is it possible that the Rays regret not picking up Charlie Morton's 15M option? They sure could have used him vs. the BoSox.

Tim Dierkes

2:32

Of course. With the benefit of hindsight, Morton at $15MM was an easy yes for the Rays even with their payroll situation. And I do think at the time the option is due plenty of people were advocating for them to pick it up. They basically put that money toward Chris Archer, Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill.

Ragbrai

2:32

If Marlins add two OF, assuming starters, who of the current OFs stay? Sanchez? De La Cruz?

Tim Dierkes

2:34

I think Sanchez stays and maybe De La Cruz is penciled in as a fourth outfielder. What the Marlins could really use is a true center fielder, but they lowballed Starling Marte already. A trade for Byron Buxton would be intriguing.

Bob

2:34

Is there anyway the O's move Means this winter? What sort of prospect haul would it require?

Tim Dierkes

2:34

I generally think they can't do it on account of Means being the only rotation member who doesn't suck. It's really tough to trade your one decent pitcher for prospects and then run a 6.00+ rotation ERA for the paying customers.

2:35

That said, if Elias goes ahead and trades Means, I'd really hope they throw a little money at some actual pitching just in the name of respectability.

2:37

Three years of Means at arbitration prices is pretty appealing, although he had injury issues this year and wasn't nearly as good after he came back from his shoulder thing. So I think the return might be a little uninspiring, like Yu Darvish's was for the Cubs.

Ragbrai

2:37

Does AZ move Kelly? Maybe to FLA and just put Varsho behind the plate exclusively?

Tim Dierkes

2:38

I think there's a solid chance the DBacks move Kelly this winter. It kind of doesn't matter who they put in his place...this is full rebuild mode, so you cash in anyone who's not in the 0-3 service group.

Ragbrai

2:38

With Suarez’s great run as a SP, does he stay in the rotation?

Tim Dierkes

2:38

Yes, I think Ranger Suarez is a rotation lock for the Phillies next year. They are one of few teams with their starting five set, although Eflin will start the year on the IL.

Bob

2:38

Trade propositions: Several of my favorite team's middling prospects and players in exchange for another team's best player. Who says no? WHO SAYS NO!

Tim Dierkes

2:39

Yeah. To come up with a realistic trade scenario for a cheap star player, you need to think of something that's pretty damn painful for your own team.

Ragbrai

2:39

What is the Mets starting five? They seem to have a lot of questions with their current guys. Do the add a big name?

Tim Dierkes

2:41

deGrom, Carrasco, Megill, Thor if he accepts a QO. They need some sort of stabilizing addition to the rotation. I'm ambivalent as to whether they're at the top of the market or more in the DeSclafani range. They figure to shuffle things around on the position player side as well.

Bob

2:41

For example: Does Nolan Gorman turn Means into a different kind of bird?

Tim Dierkes

2:43

I think that trade would work for the Orioles. I'm not sure if Means is reliable or good enough for the Cards to want to do it.

Bob

2:43

Where do you think Stro ends up and for how much?

Tim Dierkes

2:43

We're at five years and $110MM, and I have the Angels as my pick for now.

john whelan

2:43

Is there any possibility that the new CBA includes a minimum team salary? MLB does owe something to the fans of the teams that are not trying to win. The percentage of successful total rebuilds is not very high.

Tim Dierkes

2:45

In a technical sense, baseball already has a payroll floor, because you can't employ a team at least than $15MM ($600K x 25 or so). It's just that you'd love to see that at $75MM+ to force some teams into action. The issue is that MLB always ties this concept to a salary cap or something similar, and the players rightly resist that.

It's easier to adjust things already in place, so the players should aim to bump that $600K min salary up to $1MM or more.

Ragbrai

2:46

In the world of the true unknown what do the Rockies do this off-season? Anything besides stand pat?

Tim Dierkes

2:47

I think they'll trade Tapia, find some semblance of a shortstop if not Rodgers, and add a decent free agent outfielder. They'll continue trying to sign Gray, and he could perhaps accept a QO. If not, they'll probably trade for some sort of SP. Bullpen needs work too.

Ragbrai

2:47

Is Barrera the Refs starting SS by default and can he hold onto it? Or does a slow start send him back to AAA?

Tim Dierkes

2:48

We're talking about the Reds and Jose Barrero? I think sticking with Farmer is the easy choice. Barrero could be used in CF a bit and kind of hang around the SS discussion in case Farmer falters.

grover

2:48

The 2021 A's had an effective Opening Day payroll of $75 MM; everyone seems to overlook that Rosenthal's contract included $8 MM deferred through 2022 and 2023. Most sites show the 2022 A's payroll at $83 MM (and not including Rosenthal's deferred money) and I don't think they have any more cash on hand than they did a year ago. They're losing Canha, they have to completely rebuild their bullpen, and they finished 9 games behind the Astros. Why should Oakland stop at trading Bassitt and Manaea?

Tim Dierkes

2:48

I think the A's will trade Chapman and Manaea. Somehow, they'll do so and still field a competitive team.

3rd time is a charm

2:49

First it was the opener, now it is the "don't let your starting pitcher go through the lineup a 3rd time". How does this trend, combined with the 3-hitter minimum impact the market? Are multiple-innings types valuated differently than just a few years ago? Are there new metrics to evaluate the 3rd time through SP or the guy who can come in after and get through a lineup once (innings 4-6)?

Tim Dierkes

2:50

I think all but the most fragile relievers are now expected to be able to go multiple innings in high leverage games like the playoffs. It's less about valuing that ability than about devaluing any reliever who suggests he will only go a single inning at a time.

I think there's a blanket assumption that just about all starters are a lot worse the third time through. I guess if some free agent had demonstrably bucked that trend in his career, that'd be valuable.

2:51

For me the bigger question is how can we create some rules where starting pitchers stay in the game for 6-7 innings? That's more enjoyable baseball for me and I don't think I'm alone.

Ragbrai

2:51

Is it too late to change a team from the ‘22 Field of Dreams game! Would the Cubs just be better off sending the I-Cubs. They are closer or is that basically the same team as the Cubs are sending?

Tim Dierkes

2:53

The Cubs might do a little window dressing this winter with free agents, sign a Steven Matz or Alex Wood or something. I assume they won't be much of a draw in 2022, but MLB planned this stuff out well in advance and they're probably stuck with the Cubs and Reds. So maybe TV ratings are down a bit, but the game easily sells out and is a game on free TV that gets playoff treatment from Fox, so it still has easy appeal to the casual fan.

3rd time is a charm

2:54

If the solution to the salary floor problem is to raise the minimum from X you X+Y, then small-market teams will just pay that new minimum for bottom talent. Leaving the minimum at X but raising the overall floor means that small market teams will have to compete for at least mid-tier FAs, which seems to be an area of some pressure for the players?

Tim Dierkes

2:55

I agree with that. I'm just saying that to be realistic, in bargaining it's a lot easier to haggle on the exact figure for something that already exists than to impose an entirely new team salary floor. Moving the min salary to $1MM still has a huge benefit to tons of players, even if it doesn't force dollars into the free agent market.

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