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Anthony Franco

1:58

Hey everyone, hope you all had a good week!

1:59

Looking forward to another one of these! I'll start with a pair of questions I didn't have answers to last week

Will in Westport

1:59

Last week, I asked about the potential signing of Seiya Suzuki by MLB teams and the potential knock-on effects. You were going to try and do some analysis of it this week. Were you able to gain any insights to provide better understanding?

Anthony Franco

2:00

So opinions on Suzuki are pretty variable, as one might expect

2:01

But the broadest consensus seems to be that he's a solid defensive corner outfielder (nobody thinks he can really play center) who does pretty much everything fairly well offensively. Good bat-to-ball, above-average power, solid plate discipline

2:02

Not a star, but a good everyday right fielder. Somebody who can approximate what we saw this year from Avi García

And he's only 27, so we're projecting him at like 5/60-ish on the guarantee

2:03

That'd rule out the lowest spenders, but it's not inconceivable a mid-market team hops in that mix

2:04

Could see the Nationals, Phillies, Mariners, Giants, Mets, maybe the Padres all being involved

Will in Westport

2:05

Also, last week, I posed a question about players you were on IL and rehab as/when/if a work stoppage were to occur. How is their rehab treated … does their old team pay for it? Or, does the MLBTA have a fund? Or, do they have to use private insurance? You were going to try and get some more information to share with us; were you successful? Thanks.

Anthony Franco

2:06

I did also do some digging on this one. I didn't find a definitive answer, so take this one with a grain of salt, but this is the closest thing I could find

2:07

It looks like the Uniform Players Contract requires teams to cover "reasonable medical and hospital expenses incurred" on account of employment-related injuries for up to two years from the date of first treatment for that injury

2:08

I don't see any reason why that provision would lapse during a work stoppage

2:09

So my suspicion -- again, unconfirmed but the best I could find -- is that teams will still be responsible for offseason rehab for employment-related injuries over the course of a lockout

sgrossman

2:09

Teams do go from worst to first, but it is unclear to me how often. For those that do, what are the key elements of their turn-around?

Anthony Franco

2:10

I don't know there's a real formula to be quite honest. I eliminated 2020, since it was a shortened season with a massive playoff field, and looked back for teams that went from last place to the playoffs over the past six or seven seasons

2:11

The ones I found (possible I missed one or two, don't know of a great way to query for this so I did it by hand) were the 14-15 Rangers, the 15-16 Red Sox, the 16-17 Twins and the 17-18 A's

Texas signed Yovani Gallardo that offseason, and he was fantastic for them in 2015

2:12

So that's a credit to Jon Daniels. But for the other three, it seemed like they mostly just got better organically

2:13

Boston got an outlier Cy Young-winning season from Rick Porcello, Minnesota had Kyle Gibson and Jose Berrios go from bad (awful, in Berríos' case) to above-average starters overnight, Oakland got great first full seasons from Matt Chapman and Matt Olson

"Have a few of your players go from bad to good" isn't really a satisfying answer, since every team would love that and it's less a strategy than a hope

2:14

But that sure helps!

Horace Fury

2:14

Hi, AF! Can you think of a good reason why Oakland didn't ask for some kind of recompense from the Padres for their hiring of Melvin? I mean, a Padres prospect from #20 to #30 in their system certainly would have been fair, maybe even light. Why did OAK pass?

Anthony Franco

2:15

I think it's mostly a loyalty thing to Melvin. He was there a long time and clearly beloved by a lot of people in that organization, and I don't think they wanted to jeopardize him getting an opportunity he clearly wanted so they could try to wrangle away a potential middle reliever from the Padres or whatever

2:16

Clearly, they're also saying they're cash-strapped and wanted to reallocate some of Melvin's salary (reported at $4MM) elsewhere by hiring a cheaper manager

That's part of it for sure, but I also think a lot of it was Beane and Forst saying they love BoMel and don't want to prevent him from getting a nice three-year deal with a very talented team somewhere else

FinnFastball

2:16

What are the likely options for SFG now that they have losses in the rotation, catcher and firstbase?

Anthony Franco

2:17

I expect they'll bring Belt back. If not, Freeman's the top free agent first baseman by a mile, not sure that's realistic for them. Rizzo, maybe look into a trade for Matt Olson or Luke Voit

2:21

Sorry, had to take a call

Catcher, there's basically nothing. I wrote about this yesterday in the context of the Yankees and Sánchez, but it applies for everybody. There are a few decent catchers who might be available in trade (Stallings, Contreras, Garver), but I expect SF to just roll with Bart

2:23

Starting pitcher, it's entirely open for them. They're losing everybody, but they can basically go in whatever direction they want

2:24

I expect they'll be in on one top of the market guy at least -- Scherzer, Gausman re-signing, etc. -- and a solid mid-rotation type like Matz or a Wood before pivoting to the trade market

2:30

Sorry, I'm still here

2:31

Steve's on main coverage and just had an internet outage, so I had to sort out some stuff with the site

2:32

May have to cut this one a little short because of that but I believe we're alright for now

2:32

What are the key elements (service time, DH, pitch clock, qualifying offers) that need to be worked out prior to the end of the current CBA? Surely, both parties recognize that long-time MLB fans and the younger generation of fans have much competing for their time and money and it is in the best interests of the game to avoid labor strife. Your thoughts?

Anthony Franco

2:33

I think pitch clock and universal DH will be implemented, but the much bigger discussions will be about the luxury tax and potential playoff expansion and accompanying revenues

2:34

I agree that both sides have a huge incentive to avoid labor strife, at least something that affects the season

Certainly plausible we don't have a deal by December 1 and have some form of transaction freeze for a portion of the offseason, but I'd be surprised if we lose actual games

Jeremy

2:35

Any chance the jays are players for Scherzer or Verlander if they miss out on Ray

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