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Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

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Anthony Franco

2:58

It sort of depends on the metric. I doubt ERA+ is that much better than straight ERA, but the estimators (FIP/SIERA, etc.) tend to be

2:59

Believe SIERA's the most predictive of those publicly available ones, which is why Tim has elected to use that as our top peripheral of choice

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/era-estimators-pt-i-past/

3:00

From my understanding, the Statcast batted ball estimators haven't fared especially well in that area. So while I'll certainly integrate batted ball data (hard contact rate, average exit velocity, etc) into analysis, I don't place a whole lot of stock in something like Statcast's expected batting average

3:01

Broadly speaking, I think Statcast has drawn a strong divide between "deserved results" versus sustainability

3:02

It used to be that you looked at a hitter with a high batting average on balls in play and say that he's been lucky. Now, you can look at the batted ball data and see that -- based on the angles and exit velocities at which he's hit the ball -- he's actually "earned" those results

But that's still not the same as saying he can continue to play that well, if that makes sense

Olson

3:03

when you factor in prospect cost aren’t I more expensive than freeman? Why would the Braves be considering this

Anthony Franco

3:03

Depends on budget, really

3:04

Olson costs young talent, obviously, but he costs significantly less money over a much shorter term than Freeman would. If Liberty Media's not willing to push the payroll well higher than it has been, then you have to consider alternatives

bobwebb655

3:05

At this point, where do see Correa, Bryant, and Story signing?

Anthony Franco

3:06

Red Sox, Mariners, Astros respectively?

bobwebb655

3:07

Where do Juan Yepez and Nolan Gorman fit into the Cardinal's rotating DH concept? Is there room for both?

Anthony Franco

3:07

Yeah I think so, particularly if they trade DeJong

3:08

Rotate Edman through at shortstop a little more to give Gorman some 2B run at times. Can mix them into the corner outfield when the other guys need a breather, and you're inevitably going to get some IL stints

Frank

3:08

Thank you for doing these chats. How cynical are you about the different baseballs that were in play this season? Did they intentionally send the happy fun balls to certain cities, or for certain series, to goose the offense a bit? I put nothing by this Commissioner in his quest to maximize profit for his 30 bosses.

Anthony Franco

3:09

Ha, I'm not really a conspiracy theory person by nature. I don't think they purposely manipulated the ball

Maybe I'm just naive, but I feel like that might be giving them too much credit, given how ineptly they've handled almost everything related to the ball over the past five years

Guest

3:09

What are the Rangers odds at signing another outfielder

Anthony Franco

3:10

I think they'll add somebody. Still like them as a strong fit on Suzuki

Brian

3:10

This might be a silly question, but can teams negotiate trades with each other during the lock-out?

I understand that the transactions can't actually happen and teams can't negotiate with players, but can trade proposals be discussed now and completed later?

Anthony Franco

3:10

Not within the rules, no

3:11

At least as regards players on the 40-man roster. Can still negotiate and finalize trades for players not in the union, which is why we saw a couple minor league Rule 5 picks flipped for cash this week

Paul

3:11

Are these next two moves for the Jays realistic?:

Gurriel Jr. (major league OF with team friendly contract) + Kirk (potential MLB ready starting catcher "prospect"if you believe in him ---I do ---but Moreno is coming soon) + Groshans (expendable if you acquire and extend Ramirez) for J Ramirez
Sign Shwarber 2-3 years at $17MM-$20MM p.a. to play LF

I think this fits inside their 5 year salary structure. And, the big 6 at the top of the order might be better than what it was at the end of last year. Certainly would better left
/right balance, overall collective power, and better collective OBA

And while the idea of the Jays being a finalist for Freeman is attractive in Fantasy Baseball terms, (especially to keep him from the Yankees) 5-6 years at whatever for a 1B/DH when the Jays have Vlad G just doesn't sound like a good use of long term payroll capacity.

Anthony Franco

3:12

Option 2 seems viable, although the corner bat/DH mix would be a little crowded. I don't think Cleveland would accept Option 1

Dave

3:12

What type of deal do you think Jose Iglesias will receive? I'm curious why the sox haven't picked him up yet for infield depth.

Also with the Renfroe/Bradley trade, do you see Kiki Hernandez playing more second next year (and to point above perhaps Arroyo becomes backup)?

i would love to see Kiki on second and have Durran up as outfielder.

Anthony Franco

3:13

I think Hernández's role is still TBD depending on whether they sign anyone else this winter. As it stands, yeah, I'm guessing he'd be the primary second baseman with Bradley in center

As for Iglesias, might just be looking at a minor league deal with an NRI. Defensive metrics (at least the public ones) thought he was truly awful at shortstop for the Angels this year

3:14

And that's obviously his calling card, so I don't see a whole lot of appeal. At best, he's looking at a low-base one year MLB offer

3:14

What do the Brewers need to make it to the NLCS?

Anthony Franco

3:15

I really wouldn't say they need to do anything. They're the division favorites already, and if you win your division, you can make it to the NLCS by just playing well for a week

3:16

It's a really strong roster all-around as is, but I could see them looking into upgrading over Tellez at first base

Jeff

3:17

Do you know how defensive WAR is calculated by outlets like Baseball Reference with respect to players from long ago? There is obviously no videotape to watch Phil Rizzuto's 1942 season. So how accurate is BR's calculation that Phil was an excellent plus 3.4 dWAR that year?

Anthony Franco

3:18

I'm pretty sure they lose Total Zone

https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/total_zone.shtml

3:19

Which essentially uses play-by-play data to estimate fielding success (i.e. Player X hit a ground-ball single to LF, so we'll deduct some fraction of a run from the SS and the 3B)

3:20

I don't trust that method basically at all, but I concede there's nothing better. The further back in time you go, the bigger the error bars on stuff like WAR get, but I think it generally maps with the players you think of as being great

Shawn

3:20

Are the owners friends?

Anthony Franco

3:21

Some of them, sure. They're (for the most part) humans, so I'm guessing they have different cliques and personal relationships, just as any group of 30-ish co-workers would

3:21

How are option years treated when calculating the AAV of a contract under the current CBA?

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