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Trade Rumors Front Office Chat

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Ronnie Belliard

2:30

How likely is it that the Twins would trade Garver or Kepler?

Anthony Franco

2:31

I can't see Kepler going. The deal's affordable, I'm guessing they're still holding out hope that the strikeout/walk profile and hard contact frequency results in a breakout

2:32

Even if his batting average on balls in play bounces back from .225 to around .260 (the league average is about .300, but Kepler comes in way under that every year), he'd be enough of a bargain that I don't think they're making that move

2:33

A Garver trade I could see, since relying on Jeffers, Rortvedt and maybe a veteran stopgap isn't the worst thing in the world. If Garver helps you bring back some rotation help, I'd be willing to make that move

Jays Fan

2:33

What do you see a Kris Bryant contract looking like? Would the George Springer contract (6 years, $150 million) get it done?

Anthony Franco

2:34

I think a little over that. We projected 6/160 at the start of the winter, and the market was pretty strong over the first couple months. Bryant's got the name value that appeals to ownership groups and having Scott Boras as your rep is typically really helpful

2:35

He's also a very good player, obviously, even if no longer the MVP type force he was in 2016

I'd guess he comes in a touch above our 160 projection. 6/165, 7/175 range

Chip

2:35

Have you heard any rumors/updates on Bally Sports Streaming app for 2022 ? Thanks

Anthony Franco

2:36

Haven't heard anything on this, sorry

Guest

2:36

Do you see the Rangers going after pitching and if so who ?

Anthony Franco

2:36

They've talked openly about wanting to sign Kershaw. I'm sure he's the top priority but it remains to be seen where he wants to be

I like them as a fit for Kikuchi, probably even more so than Kershaw

Guest

2:37

Do the Rangers believe they can contend this year ? And if not why keep signing and trading.

Anthony Franco

2:37

They're not contending this year, which makes the Semien move in particular a little weird

2:38

But they think they'll be pretty good by 2023, '24 at the latest. And guys like Gray and Seager should theoretically remain in their primes

This offseason wasn't about getting better in 2022 -- although it'll have that effect as well -- so much as locking in some key pieces for 2023 and beyond during a winter with a bunch of great free agents

Guest

2:38

What changes do you see being made for the playoffs 14-16 teams ?

Anthony Franco

2:39

The league seems to want 14, the players have been willing to offer 12. So it seems like it's coming in at one of those two numbers. I'm hopeful it stops at 12

Arbiter

2:39

Hi Anthony, thank you for the chat. As the Owners/MLB seemingly have said “no” to any/all proposed changes to the CBA put forth by the MLBPA, it doesn’t look so good for the PA going forward. Do you think the MLB would accept a simple tweak that offers the league minimum salary to go up to $800k and keep the 6-year service time before FA more/less the same? If so and I was in the room, I would tell both sides to further consider that a fair compromise might also include making the super-two guys the top 45-50% of each “freshman class” instead of the top 22%. That takes the “day counting/manipulation” out of the equation, and makes a few more guys “2 Lastly, I would also push for the lux tax threshold to go up about $15MM (roughly a half year’s salary for a top tier star’s salary). Three pro-player/union tweaks, but not too much impact on the owners? Your thoughts? Thank you

Anthony Franco

2:40

I think these are all decent suggestions. It seems like the league might balk at a $15MM luxury tax hike, but I'm not sure that should really be all that big an issue for them

2:41

I'd rather see players get arb-eligibility after two years for simplicity's sake. The Super Two is weird and needlessly complicated, and nobody would draw things up that way if starting from scratch

2:43

Would MLB be willing to offer those things for a 14-team playoff and no interruption to the season? Remains to be seen. They've got access to financials I don't have, obviously, and they're not going to just give a bunch of stuff away without getting something important in return

But on the surface, none of that seems outlandish to me

Oregon Coast

2:43

Many commentators have said the biggest move the Padres have made is trading Frazier. Isn’t hiring Melvin bigger? Team already has good talent — just need someone to bring it out. What is your take on W

Anthony Franco

2:43

Sure yeah, you could make that case

It's just hard to quantify the value of a manager, so changes to a roster are more obvious

2:44

Is the change from Jayce Tingler to Bob Melvin worth two wins? Four? Zero? It's hard to know, but I'd guess it's not nothing

2:46

And the team was probably going to play better in 2022 regardless of who was running it. There's a ton of talent as you said, and it's not like they never played well under Tingler. In 2020 and the first half of 2021, they were awesome and then got wrecked by injuries. A managerial change was necessary given all the reports of clubhouse discord, but the team was likely in line for some positive regression regardless

Lightening Doesn't Strike Twice

2:46

I don't think anyone can explain how a team of no-stars, expiring contracts, and aging vets managed to win 107 games and hold off the (2nd) best team in baseball down the stretch. Whatever voodoo (maybe sabermetrics?) was involved, the reality is the 2022 roster remains essentially unchanged and Farhad doesn't think any of the signed FA would improve them enough to make a splash. Would you expect at least a 25 game reversal once the spell wears off?

Anthony Franco

2:47

25 feels high. That'd put them right around .500, and I think the coaching/matchup stuff they're really good at matters enough to say they'll be pretty good in 2022

Oh, in case this wasn't clear from the question, this is about the Giants

2:48

They've got payroll flexibility and will do more stuff coming out off the lockout, but right now, I'd probably put them in the 90-92 win range

Bid Daddy Cohen

2:48

Should I trade for Elvis Andrus and his hilariously bad contract just to scare other teams? He would be a great bench player/pinch runner

Anthony Franco

2:49

Eh, I don't really see the appeal of paying even like $7-8MM for a glove-first backup shortstop and pinch runner

Lindor, when healthy, plays almost everyday. I'd rather just roll with Guillorme behind him

Astros fan

2:49

Why is attendance so low for the Florida teams?

Anthony Franco

2:50

I've never been to either stadium but my understanding is that Tampa's facility, Tropicana Field, is just really difficult to get to

Traffic's pretty bad, particularly on weekdays, I believe

2:51

The Marlins have just been bad almost non-stop since they won the World Series in 2003. Not an easy product to sell

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