JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Chat: 8/10/20

Trade Rumors Front Office Chat: 8/10/20

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Steve Adams

12:00

Greetings all -- I'm going to get started in a couple minutes. I see we already have some questions in the queue from those who submitted early, but feel free to keep piling them on!

Brewers!

12:04

What do you think of Corbin Burnes? How high of a ceiling do you think he has? It has been great to see him have some success so far after struggling last year; do you think he is putting it all together?

Steve Adams

12:06

I was pretty much driving the Burnes bus to begin the 2019 season, and I did not come out of that looking great, ha. But I'm still firmly on board with him being a well above-average starter. Even last year when he struggled, he had elite velocity, spin and whiff rates; control was an issue and the juiced ball killed him, but so did a ridiculous .414 BABIP

12:07

Burnes still has the high-end velo, spin, whiff rates, etc. -- and the ball doesn't seem to be jumping to the extent it was in 2019. He's walked too many, and I think command is always going to be a bit less than ideal, but you can still count me on the Burnes Bandwagon.

Kirt Bennett

12:07

Do you think that the Marlins or Orioles will make the playoffs?

Steve Adams

12:09

I don't. It's kind of fun to see some of these clubs making waves early on, but you're not going to sell me on a rotation with Tommy Milone, Wade LeBlanc and Asher Wojciechowski holding a winning record in the AL East

12:10

The Marlins are a bit more interesting because I like some of their young pitching, and they added some legitimate bats (Dickerson, Villar, Aguilar) to go along with Anderson.

12:11

I still think the Braves/Nats/Phillies will end up with better records, due in no small part to half Miami's actual roster being on the Covid-19 list, but I do think the Marlins are the better of the two.

12:11

Casey Mize is due. Why not now?

Steve Adams

12:11

Strikethrough font!

12:13

I think he'll be up this year -- probably the first of their big arms to get a look. At this point, maybe they're waiting to avoid Super Two status, which shouldn't take too much longer. Detroit is another of those "They're not actually this good" clubs, but they're at 9-7 and have been rebuilding for like 3-4 years now. Might as well make a push to give the fans something to cheer for and some real optimism.

That Cron injury hurts them though -- not that he's some kind of ultra-elite bat or anything, but the lineup was already pretty sketchy.

SteveM

12:13

Jose Berrios...is he really an ace or just a good 2 or 3?

Steve Adams

12:15

I don't think anyone really refers to Berrios as an ace outside of here in Minnesota. He's a solid second or third starter and has been the most consistent pitcher the Twins have, but he's always been a bit homer prone and he doesn't get the whiffs you'd expect from someone whose breaking pitches move that much

12:17

I think all of that is a function of his spin rate on the fastball (or lack thereof) ... he doesn't generate tons of whiffs with the four-seamer, so he doesn't get by with mistakes at the top end of the zone enough.

I like Berrios a lot, and he'll make good money in free agency when he gets there, but I wouldn't call him a true No. 1 -- barring some alterations to the fastball

kodosthepreparer

12:17

Thoughts on whether it is time for the Jays to consider moving on from Charlie? I am seriously doubting his ability to manage this team.

Steve Adams

12:19

Based on what, exactly? Last year's roster was never going to be competitive, and he's been given a pretty poor defensive unit both seasons at the helm.

12:20

If anything, I'm amazed that the bullpen has pitched as well as it has, given the lack of established names there. I tend to think fans overstate the impact of a manager on both good and bad teams, but I don't see a ton that screams to me Montoyo should be on a short leash. Open to dissenting opinion, though, if you care to share more context.

Conkatonk

12:20

Does it make sense to trade Yaz now while his value is high and his cost minimal? He's 30 now and won't be in his prime when the team is good again.

Steve Adams

12:23

I have to imagine he still has some skeptics among other front offices, but we're also coming up on 500 plate appearances of him just being a legitimately good hitter. He might not be a .333 BABIP guy, but he's maintained the power (actually improved upon it) post-2019, he draws his fair share of walks and doesn't strike out at an alarming rate.

That said, it's a fine line for them to walk. Giants fans have little to cheer for, and moving their best hitter for anything less than a huge package would be tough to stomach.

12:25

And while Yaz has five years of control beyond 2020, there are difficult factors in extracting max value. He's turning 30, as you said, in 10 days. The track record is limited and, prior to the juiced ball season, he was a pretty marginal hitter even in Triple-A. And corner outfield bats are among the most readily available commodities in the game.

12:26

The Giants should absolutely be willing to listen on him and just about anyone else, but this is a pretty uncommon scenario that makes it difficult to gauge

Marc

12:26

Enjoyed the "Two Trades" piece the other day! Regarding the Cubs.. Shaky bullpen aside, right now they lead all of baseball in pitches seen per plate appearance (4.2), only made three outs on the bases in 15 games and are defensively much improved from minus-seven DFS of last year to plus-nine so far this year. I can't help but think that Ross is a big part of this. Thoughts?

Steve Adams

12:28

See previous comment about attributing too much to managers in either direction. Ross might well have helped, but the team also has several new coaches and surely added several new analysts over the winter -- all of whom are working in tandem to advise the front office and field staff. Ross may be the face of the new additions, but the changes are likely the sum of many more parts.

12:29

And there's also some small sample noise with the defense. Yu Darvish was -6 DRS last year and is +2 in 17 innings this year. I don't think David Ross turned him into the greatest fielding pitcher since Greg Maddux overnight. And he probably also isn't a true talent -6 defender at his position either. Defensive metrics will always carry pretty heavy year-over-year variance

Lorraine

12:29

With Mookie off the board, will any of the 2020-21 free agents land a $100 million contract?

Steve Adams

12:30

J.T. Realmuto should still clear that mark easily, barring injury. I'd have said George Springer has a chance, too, but the slow start and current injury don't do him any favors.

12:32

Outside of that, it's hard to envision. DJ LeMahieu will get a huge annual value but he's heading into his age-32 season next year, so the $100MM+ mark seems too high. Marcus Semien needs to show his 2019 output wasn't an aberration, and he's not doing that yet. Ozuna will do better sans the QO, but he's not a $100MM player

A huge Robbie Ray season could've put me on the fence, but he's going the other direction this year.

dksary

12:33

What are some realistic options for the Braves to use at SP? They seem to need at lease 2 capable SPs behind Fried, Wright and Tuki. Ian Anderson could be a difference maker, but I feel like they could use at least one veteran SP who can eat innings and limit the opposing team to 3ish runs.

Steve Adams

12:35

I wrote about that in the aforementioned Trades That Should Happen piece that was sent out to Front Office subscribers this week (feedback welcome, by the way!)

I do love the idea of them rolling the dice on Robbie Ray while also adding Merrill Kelly as a stabilizing presence. The D-backs have to be motivated to consider dealing Ray, as at this point he's far from a lock to receive a QO and they don't want to lose him for nothing. There's no huge velo dip or anything, so if this is something mechanical and the Braves think they can right the ship, he's a great lotto ticket. Kelly isn't all that sexy, but he is the embodiment of what you just said -- someone who can reliably limit opponents to 3-4 runs over 5-7 innings more often than not.

That durability and consistency is particularly important for the Braves right now.

Bds

12:35

Do you think Phillies, if realize Realmuto still wants more than willing to pay, would consider trading him before deadline?

Steve Adams

12:36

I don't think they'd be assured of getting more value than they'd get from making a QO. They'd need to go on a pretty significant losing streak and be 8-9 games from a playoff spot, I think.

Quarantino Martinez

12:37

The Orioles should still be trading whomever they can, right? Who will be the biggest names to go?

Steve Adams

12:39

100% they should. Mychal Givens, Miguel Castro, Hanser Alberto, Alex Cobb (plus lots of cash) ... if you're an Oriole with 3+ years of service you should be on the market.

12:41

I wonder at what point Alberto goes from fluke to extreme contact, high-average hitter in the eyes of some front offices. The guy just doesn't strike out and constantly puts bat to ball. At the very least he should be an oft-used bench piece on a good club.

A’s fan

12:42

Last start for LHP Sean Manaea this week before the A’s replace him in the Rotation? He still appears Injured IMO. Velocity is way down.

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