JotCast | Trade Rumors Front Office Chat | 8/27/2020

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Steve Adams

2:45

Onto the next!

Brewers!

2:46

Who would be a good arbitration comparison for Josh Hader? What do you predict his salaries will be over the next three years (assuming consistent performance)?

Steve Adams

2:48

There aren't really many comparables to Hader, which is what makes his arb situation so unique. Ken Giles was the closest one.

If you want to read more about his case -- and didn't see this last year -- Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration model, wrote about the unique nature of Hader's case and why he is so, so hard to project:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/01/arbitration-breakdown-josh-hade...

Arbitration is based SO heavily on past comps, and in Hader's case there really aren't many (or any) good ones.

Bob

2:48

There is a rumor on Sportsnet.ca that the Red Sox are seriously considering boycotting to nights game.If they do but Jays want to play will Toronto be awarded a win?

Steve Adams

2:50

This was Ross Atkins earlier in the day (via Shi Davidi): "We will have another discussion with our players. We will obviously talk to the other team, we will obviously look for guidance from Major League Baseball and want their input. But in the end, we'll absolutely support what our players want."

The Jays wouldn't publicly push for a win to be awarded in this situation.

1. It'd be a terrible look. The optics would be so bad, and they'd be killed from a P.R. standpoint.

Oops

2:51

Hit enter early

bloomingunin

2:54

I asked a question last week about the top non-tenders available next offseason and that you would think of more for today. What other players do you think will be available?

Steve Adams

2:54

Agh!

2:55

What is happening here

Software is bugging out

Part 2 of Jays answer:
Anyhow, 2. I'd like to think their leadership would respect the rival players' cause, beliefs and convictions. The desire to spark a legitimate conversation and awareness of realities in our society that need to change is powerful, and athletes' willingness to speak up, even if the conversation is uncomfortable, is important.

On to non-tenders

2:58

Keep in mind that these are just some possibilities, but:

Hunter Renfroe: Due a raise on a $3.3MM salary, currently has a 71 wRC+. Rays are obviously a low-spending team.
Robert Gsellman: Tiny sample thus far and his role is shifting around, but he's never settled in as a high-quality arm.
Adam Frazier: Owed a raise on a $2.8MM salary, has a 46 wRC+, Pirates spend less than Rays.
Alex Dickerson: Not hitting well, longstanding durability issues, other options emerging.
Nomar Mazara: Not hitting well, didn't give up a ton to get him, owed a raise on $5MM salary in final arb year. Other options will be present on market.
Danny Santana: Not hitting, spotty track record.
Austin Hedges: Padres love the glove but will be feeling budgetary pressure next year by Ron Fowler's own admission
Mallex Smith: This one isn't bold since they already optioned him; he's all but gone.

SteveM

2:59

Clevinger is on the way out of Cleveland? The Yankees nab him if he is indeed out of Cleveland?

Steve Adams

3:00

I think the notion that he's on his way out is vastly overstated, but yes the Yankees will surely be involved in trying to pry him loose. Clint Frazier would make a lot of sense back in Cleveland, and they could pair that with a Deivi Garcia or Clarke Schmidt to entice the Indians. There's certainly a logical foundation for a move there.

Marc

3:00

How much of an effect do you see the protested games making on scheduling the rest of this ‘season’?

Steve Adams

3:00

I imagine more doubleheaders in the short term

Ted

3:01

I am a person that loves numbers, but the sheer volume of stats now being used in baseball is overwhelming. I just heard a new one last night: Quality At Bat. I like WHIP for pitchers and Hard Hit % for hitters (hate BABIP - a popup counts the same as a line drive), but don't know which of the others are worthwhile. What are your thoughts on which stats a person should follow?

Steve Adams

3:04

It all depends. If I'm looking at hitters, yeah, hard-hit rate, exit velocity, K%, BB% -- all of that matters. I generally prefer wRC+ if I'm going to boil their production down to one number.

I'd push back on BABIP being useless; you can break down BABIP by batted ball type on FanGraphs if you really want. I think it's important to understand which types of hitters are more prone to higher BABIPs, for sure, but it's still a good measure.

Your argument against BABIP is my argument against WHIP -- I don't see why a walk and a hit should be considered the same. Not all hits are created equal, and a walk is much worse than allowing a weakly hit ball in play that turns into a fluke hit. The poor control is something that'd worry me far more than a guy giving up a lot of fluky hits; I don't think they should be given equal weight.

3:06

For pitchers, I tend to look more at swinging-strike rate, hard-hit rate, ground-ball rate, K-BB% (not K/BB), SIERA .. there are, as you said, a lot of ways to go, and there's no perfect route. It in many ways is dependent on what your goal is when looking at someone's numbers in the first place.

I think that so long as you understand the stats you're looking at and understand their pros/cons relative to alternatives, you should follow the stats you like.

GBS42

3:06

Got any more wild trade ideas to put out there?

Steve Adams

3:09

I chuckled with a friend recently about the idea of the Braves trading Newcomb back to the Angels for Simmons; it's not really what the Braves need, but Riley/Camargo have been terrible, so they could slide Dansby to 3B for a month.

Dodger Dog

3:09

Clevenger for Julio Urias + a player towards the back half of the Dodgers top prospect list. Cleveland gets a good pitcher with an extra year of control, LAD goes even more all in this year and next. Think either one would go for it?

Steve Adams

3:10

I get the thinking, but it's hard for me to see them moving Clev without getting a controllable OF upgrade first and foremost, followed by some other long-term value (ideally a middle infielder or SP who is at or on the cusp of MLB)

3:12

Alright, I've got to wrap up for the week. Connor will be chatting in this spot next week. I'll be back the week after. In the meantime, I'm on Twitter @Adams_Steve. Thanks for your support, as always. We truly appreciate it and are humbled by it. You guys rock.

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